StormfanaticInd Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Storms blowing up in western Ohio with a few t-storm warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 Texas being Texas this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Sunday 🤨 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Nice summer-like rain and thunder. Wets the soil enough to keep the grass happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Such a weird but pretty sky with this storm filtered-8E0D8934-C015-40FD-90A3-F966680C4C64.mp4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 0z HRRR develops a line of storms in the plains tomorrow evening and it continues into the OV through Friday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 SPC getting serious about this weekend. Think it's a safe bet there will likely be a moderate risk area for both days at some point. Quote Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Potentially significant severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the the central and southern Plains vicinity on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including a couple strong tornadoes, damaging gusts and large to very large hail. ...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks... A potentially significant severe-weather episode is possible on Saturday, especially from near the Red River northward across much of OK and into eastern KS. All severe hazards are expected. An upper trough over the western U.S. is expected to shift east over the Plains. As this occurs, deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase over the region. A 500 mb jet around 60-70 kt is forecast along with an area of strong upper divergence. At the surface, a warm front is expected to lift quickly northward as southerly low-level flow increases in response to deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. The warm front should impinge on southeast NE by 00z, extending east/southeast along the I-70 corridor. The warm front will continue to lift northward into IA overnight. Meanwhile, a sharpening dryline will extend southward from west-central KS to western OK and central TX. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F will extend north into southern KS (and east across the Ozarks), with 60s F into southern NE/IA. Very steep midlevel lapse rates will also overspread the region, aiding in strong to extreme destabilization. By 21-00z large-scale ascent is expected to overspread the dryline and northward-advancing warm front. Convective coverage is a bit uncertain, but at least widely scattered storms are expected. Nevertheless, an increasing low-level jet (850 mb southwesterly winds 45-60 kt) and vertically veering wind profiles will support supercells. Given expected instability, development may be rapid and intense, with storms quickly becoming severe. Strong tornadoes, very large hail and damaging gusts are all possible, particularly from near the Red River into OK and eastern KS. It is possible with time that one or more bowing segments will develop by late evening into the overnight hours as convection spreads east into the Ozarks. Damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential will accompany this activity. ...TN Valley to the Carolinas and Virginia... Modest northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region on Saturday. A very moist and unstable airmass will present, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity. Deep boundary-layer mixing and effective shear around 20-30 kt amid 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will support sporadic strong storms capable of locally strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/23/2024 Quote Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sun - Ozarks, Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys... A regional severe weather episode is expected on Day 4/Sunday. Significant severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards will be possible. An upper trough will overspread the region, resulting in a corridor of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow overlapping a very moist and strongly unstable airmass. Forecast guidance depicts a 700 mb southwesterly jet around 45-60 kt over the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, a surface low near northeast KS/northwest MO at the beginning of the period will deepen as it lifts northeast toward Lake Michigan through the evening. A cold front will develop east across the region from late afternoon into the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer will support strong destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS/Lower MO Valley. The evolution of this activity is a bit uncertain, but may continue to develop east along a warm front draped across northern IL/IN. Additional convection is expected across the warm sector from southeast MO/northwest AR eastward into TN/KY. While storm mode/evolution remains a bit uncertain at this time (may be a mix of supercells and more linear convection), supercell wind profiles coupled with favorable thermodynamics will support all-hazards severe potential across a broad area during the day and into the nighttime hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 3 hours ago, snowlover2 said: SPC getting serious about this weekend. Think it's a safe bet there will likely be a moderate risk area for both days at some point. Could make a case for the Sunday threat getting a bit farther north than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 17 hours ago, junior said: Drone footage of that tornado yesterday. Probably one of the best tornado vids out there for multiple vortices. https://youtu.be/IEFGKMWYD-E No kidding. That is an extreme multi-vortex display. You don't even have to know much about tornadoes to spot that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 23 Moderators Share Posted May 23 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Could make a case for the Sunday threat getting a bit farther north than depicted. CSU-MLP agrees much further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 Might be kind of a hot take but I think Saturday is looking even more concerning than 5/6. What held 5/6 back was trough orientation and poor lapse rates, neither of which seem to be an issue with Saturday. Most models (so far) seem to have a well timed trough with the left exit region perfectly positioned over the threat area. I think the only concerns for Saturday now are capping and timing of convection, but with an environment like currently shown I would be surprised if we end up with a cap bust. Now of course its still Day 3 so I'm not saying this is going to end up being a high risk event since things can still change but as of now I would be surprised if we don't see at least a 15# moderate at some point. We'll see what CAMs have tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 Okay the Nam needs to calm down a bit 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenbobby13 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 (edited) 05/27 00z nam hodograph is insane for the Indy Ohio border in southwest ohio. Edited May 23 by greenbobby13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 23 Moderators Share Posted May 23 Central Illinois Sounding between I-55 and I-57 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 27 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: Central Illinois Sounding between I-55 and I-57 That's at 15z, or 10 am local time. Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 No surprise but the Greenfield, IA tornado has been upgraded to EF-4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 PDS warned. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 711 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Jackson County in southwestern Oklahoma... Southeastern Harmon County in southwestern Oklahoma... * Until 800 PM CDT. * At 711 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 6 miles north of Eldorado, moving east at 15 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... Olustee, Eldorado, Duke, and McQueen. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3450 9975 3460 9976 3468 9971 3465 9936 3441 9943 TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 270DEG 13KT 3457 9963 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 (edited) Connor Croff team saw a brief cone tornado near East Duke, Oklahoma, with possible continuing debris (not sure) edit. medium size debris signature and strong velocity Edited May 24 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Just now, ElectricStorm said: Wow That might need a TE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Every scan keeps getting crazier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Still PDS. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 726 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 OKC057-065-240100- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0126.000000T0000Z-240524T0100Z/ Jackson OK-Harmon OK- 726 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN HARMON COUNTIES... At 725 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 7 miles northeast of Eldorado, moving east at 20 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Olustee and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation. && LAT...LON 3451 9971 3458 9971 3468 9966 3465 9936 3443 9942 TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 278DEG 19KT 3455 9956 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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