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May 14-June 24, 2024 | Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak


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  • The title was changed to May 14-?, 2024 | Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak
9 minutes ago, SnowloverSid said:

This was some of the most awesome footage I have ever seen— however, there is a thin line between awesome and awful, and I hope no one was injured.

It looks really bad in Greenfield; several fatalities have been confirmed.

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Weekend is looking interesting.

Quote
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Sat - Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

   An upper shortwave trough over AZ/NM is forecast to spread eastward
   across the central/southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity on
   Saturday. As this occurs, southwesterly mid/upper flow will
   increase. Height falls will induce surface cyclogenesis over western
   KS and the OK/TX Panhandles during the daytime. In response, a warm
   front will lift northward across central/eastern OK/KS and much of
   the Mid-MS Valley. A surface dryline will extend south from the
   surface low near the OK/TX border through evening. During the
   nighttime hours, the surface low is forecast to develop
   east/northeast into MO while a cold front overspreads parts of the
   central/southern Plains by Sunday morning. 

   A very moist and unstable airmass will develop over the region as
   the warm front lifts north, allowing for strong destabilization. As
   large-scale ascent and vertical shear increase during the
   afternoon/evening, widespread thunderstorm development is expected.
   Initial supercells appear possible near the dryline and surface low
   over OK/KS. With time, an MCS may develop over part of the region
   and spread east into AR/MO during the evening/overnight hours. All
   severe hazards appear possible at this time, and higher
   probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale
   features become better resolved for highlighting any corridors of
   greater severe risk within the broader region. 

   ...Day 5/Sun - Ozarks to the Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys...

   A synoptically concerning pattern is evident on Sunday across a
   broad region of the central U.S. The upper trough from the Day 4/Sat
   period will continue to shift east across the Midwest on Sunday.
   This will allow strong mid/upper southwesterly flow to overspread
   the region as a deepening surface low moves from MO toward Lake
   Michigan. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts
   of MO/the Ozarks vicinity. Ahead of this activity, a rapidly
   moistening boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints is
   expected to envelop much of the Mid-MS/OH/TN Valleys. Strong
   destabilization and favorable vertical shear, along with an
   eastward-progressing cold front will support both supercell storms,
   and possibly a developing QLCS, capable of all hazards. While
   details regarding morning convection and storm mode remain somewhat
   uncertain, higher-end severe potential appears possible with this
   pattern across portions of the region from midday into the nighttime
   hours.

 

day4prob.gif

day5prob.gif

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  • Meteorologist

I was in bed for most of the action yesterday, but yeah that tornado, yeesh. 

Today could be interesting in North Texas. RRFS shows outflow racing down this morning. If this constructively interferes with supercells, it could provide the low level shear necessary for a small-scale tornado outbreak. Not to dissimilar from 04/03/2012. The OFB could also race down and cut everything off before they get going. Tricky forecast.  

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1 minute ago, ElectricStorm said:

Insane tornado. Might be the strongest of the 2020s so far, even beating Bassfield, Mayfield, and Rolling Fork 

 

Wow! Those kind of winds can do some crazy things.

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I'm usually very cautious when speculating about tornado ratings, but various radar data and available damage pics (not as good as actually being on scene, obviously) really point toward the Greenfield tornado being at least EF-4.  I think the main question is whether it's EF-4 or EF-5.  There's been reluctance to give out EF-5 ratings in recent years despite some candidates for that, so I'm not going to bet on that.  

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said:

Was just gonna post this. Not looking good especially with the Indy 500 on Sunday 

Yeah kinda giving May 2004 vibes when we had a high risk on race day. That was a scary day

day1otlk_20040530_2000_prt.gif

Edited by StormfanaticInd
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25 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Yeah kinda giving May 2004 vibes when we had a high risk on race day. That was a scary day

day1otlk_20040530_2000_prt.gif

Very memorable day, which actually had a significant tornado roll right through Indianapolis after the race ended.

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2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Line of storms developed west of me. Warning to the NW of me.

Can see it in the distance. Nice little hail core on it. Gotta watch out SW as it may split us.

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