ElectricStorm Posted May 20 Author Share Posted May 20 Not ideal... Got relatives in Mustang so might get interesting for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Just now, ElectricStorm said: Not ideal... Got relatives in Mustang so might get interesting for them I got an uncle in Tuttle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 1 minute ago, ElectricStorm said: Not ideal... Got relatives in Mustang so might get interesting for them I don't like the looks of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 I just woke up and am about to head to work. I should be totally fine, just hope I don't come to a wrecked house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Not good. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 935 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 OKC017-051-200300- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0119.000000T0000Z-240520T0300Z/ Grady OK-Canadian OK- 935 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN GRADY AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES... At 935 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over western Oklahoma City, or 6 miles southwest of Yukon, moving east at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Southwestern Oklahoma City, El Reno, Yukon, Mustang, Tuttle, Union City, Minco, and Richland. This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 117 and 141. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Tornado is on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 This is not good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cer5059 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 (edited) Live feed from KOCO You can see the tornado from all the lightning Edited May 20 by cer5059 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 20 Moderators Share Posted May 20 it was quite the severe thunderstorm here about an hour ago quarter size hail for about 10 minutes an 1.5" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 948 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 OKC017-051-200300- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0119.000000T0000Z-240520T0300Z/ Grady OK-Canadian OK- 948 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN GRADY AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTIES... At 947 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located 4 miles northeast of Union City, moving east at 25 mph. A second tornado was located 4 miles west ok Yukon, near NW 10th and Cimarron. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Southwestern Oklahoma City, El Reno, Yukon, Mustang, Tuttle, Union City, and Richland. This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 121 and 141. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Absolutely massive storm. Warm air is flying north into this storm. Crazy amounts of lightning. You can clearly see the outline of the mesocyclone. I've got a video, give me a minute. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 The radar loop showed a possible tornado that moved to the WNW in the area of El Reno, which is a backwards motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 20240519_215034.mp4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 New tornado warning farther south now includes my work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Broad rotation which is better. Hopefully it doesn't tighten up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 preliminary storm reports (11:50) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 20 Author Share Posted May 20 Well looks like I'm staying up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Really surprised no one has brought up the moderate risk area for tomorrow for SE IA/NW IL. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Tuesday across the Midwest, especially including portions of Iowa and Missouri into Wisconsin and western/northern Illinois. Tornadoes (a few strong), damaging wind gusts, and large hail are expected. ...Lower/Middle Missouri Valley to the Upper Great Lakes... A notably strong belt of cyclonically curved westerlies (70+ kt 500 mb) will extend from the south-central Great Plains to the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a lead/convectively augmented shortwave trough likely to spread from the central High Plains toward the Lake Superior vicinity late Tuesday night. An elongated surface low over eastern Nebraska Tuesday morning will deepen and lift northeast to northern Wisconsin/Upper Michigan by evening, with a surface warm front lifting northward ahead of the surface low, although its effective position will likely be influenced by the early day precipitation. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will surge east across Iowa/eastern Kansas/northern Missouri from mid-afternoon into the evening. Remnant clusters of storms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across central/eastern Nebraska, with the possibility of additional storms farther east across southern Iowa/northern Missouri in association with a warm-advection regime. Some key uncertainties persist about the influences of this early day convection, but trends will be for quick air mass recovery given a progressive/highly dynamic pattern. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the increasingly moist warm sector, supporting aggressive diurnal destabilization especially on the southern fringe of lingering convection/cloud cover. Significantly strengthening mid-level winds and a diurnally persistent strong low-level jet will support initial supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes, including strong (EF2+) tornado potential. But a mixed/transitional mode is expected overall, as upscale growth occurs given the degree of forcing for ascent, with likely evolution into a well-organized/fast-moving QLCS capable of increasingly widespread/intense damaging winds and a continued QLCS-related tornado risk. This scenario currently appears to be most probable across southern/eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois and nearby far northern Missouri. The severe risk will persist into the Upper Great Lakes region and middle Mississippi Valley overnight. ...Southern Plains... Convective coverage will likely decrease with southward extent as large-scale ascent focuses northward toward the Great Lakes. Nevertheless isolated storms are possible into northeast Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas by late afternoon/evening, and more conditionally with southwest extent near a dryline from central Oklahoma into central Texas. Large hail and severe gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Northeast States... A weak upper shortwave trough will move across southern Quebec and northern New England. This will result in a band of enhanced westerly deep-layer flow from northern New York into Maine. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints into the low 60s F, with strong heating and steepening low-level lapse rates. MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg and effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt will support organized cells. Elongated hodographs and favorable vertical shear suggest marginally severe hail will be possible along with locally damaging wind gusts. ..Guyer.. 05/20/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 2253Z (6:53PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 30 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Really surprised no one has brought up the moderate risk area for tomorrow for SE IA/NW IL. Wouldn't be surprised to see that moderate risk expanded for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 There are a few storms that are currently non-severe in Nebraska. There is this severe-warned supercell just north of I-80. I've driven by this area a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 wow that had an unwarned tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Here's a major hailstorm with rotation at a typical spot for severe weather out east of Deer Trail Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 The radar shows some crazy wind speeds with this broad rotation. There has been up to 2.5" hail and 60mph wind reported at Wray Colorado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Today could be a good severe wx producer. Surface low depth and wind fields are fairly anomalous for this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Phew, that's as high-end as a moderate gets. Quote SPC AC 210554 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including the potential for strong tornadoes, is probable today, peaking in the afternoon to early evening. The area most likely to be impacted will include the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Mid-Lower MO Valley into the western Great Lakes... An MCS and other remnant storm clusters are expected to be ongoing across parts of the Mid-MO Valley to Upper MS Valley at 12Z. How exactly this morning activity evolves eastward is somewhat uncertain. An initial bout of severe wind and hail may persist with this activity through midday. This will likely be over a focused mesoscale corridor, given a stout elevated mixed layer to its south and progressively limited instability to the north. Quick air mass recovery is expected in the wake of this early-day convection within a progressive/highly dynamic synoptic pattern. Pronounced surface cyclogenesis is expected with amplification of a vigorous shortwave trough from the central High Plains to the Upper MS Valley. This will yield substantial amplification of low to mid-level flow, with a belt of 70+ kt 500-mb winds extending from eastern KS and western MO through at least IA this afternoon. As the surface cyclone deepens, an attendant cold front will surge eastward into central IA through northwest MO by 00Z. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the increasingly moist warm sector, supporting aggressive diurnal destabilization especially on the southern fringe of lingering convection/cloud cover. Initial supercell development should occur near the deepening surface cyclone by midday to early afternoon over the Mid-MO Valley. Increasingly widespread thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon from the Upper MS Valley southward to the Lower MO Valley. Deep-layer shear will support an initial mixed mode of semi-discrete supercells and embedded supercells in clusters. But by late afternoon, upscale growth into a fast-moving arc of bowing line segments and embedded supercells is expected. Additional supercells should also form downstream along the effective warm front/remnant large-scale outflow that advances north in southern to central WI. Very large hail potential will be most likely with the initial supercell development, and with southern extent where semi-discrete storms should persist longest. Tornadoes, some of which should be strong, appear most probable from northern MO northward into southeast MN and southwest to central WI from both supercell and mesovortex processes. How far north strong-tornado potential can be realized will be modulated by the degree of destabilization in the wake of the early-day convection, but low-level SRH will be quite large. Damaging winds will become increasingly likely later in the afternoon into the evening with gusts of 75-90 mph possible as a well-organized QLCS forms. This should tend to be maximized across parts of central/eastern IA into western IL and northern MO. QLCS intensity should subside after dusk, as convection outpaces larger buoyancy, but a damaging wind threat could persist into Lower MI through the Mid-MO Valley. ...Ozarks to central TX... Convective coverage will decrease with southward extent as large-scale ascent focuses northward toward the Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. Nevertheless, scattered severe storms are possible during the late afternoon/evening near where the cold front overtakes the dryline in the Ozarks. More isolated convective coverage is expected southwestward along the dryline in central TX. Large buoyancy and ample deep-layer shear will support a primary threat of very large hail in TX. While a mix of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible over the Ozarks. ...New England and northeast NY... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse/remnant MCV will move across southern QC and northern New England. This will result in a band of enhanced westerly deep-layer flow from northern NY into ME. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints into the low 60s F, with strong heating and steepening low-level lapse rates. Modest MLCAPE and effective shear from 30-35 kt will support a few organized cells. Moderately elongated hodographs suggest marginally severe hail will be possible along with locally damaging wind gusts. ..Grams/Barnes.. 05/21/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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