snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0839 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0517 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...much of Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260... Valid 192217Z - 200015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to continue to gradually evolve and organize during the next couple of hours, with severe wind gusts occasionally exceeding 75 mph becoming the most prominent severe hazard by 7-8 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Embedded within 30-40 kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, an ongoing intense supercell has been rightward (eastward) propagating toward the Salina KS vicinity. This motion is roughly coincident with a west-southwest to east-northeast oriented warm frontal zone, extending along/north of the Interstate 70 corridor into northeastern Kansas. Given enhanced forcing for ascent associated with low-level convergence and warm advection along this boundary, and fairly sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads to the south of the front, further upscale growth and evolution into a more prominent bowing structure with strong damaging surface gusts becoming the primary severe hazards seems probable through 23-01Z. At the same time, as a low-amplitude short wave trough continues to gradually emerge from the southern Rockies, intensifying storms along the dryline north of Garden City KS into the Clinton-Sherman OK vicinity may continue to increase along consolidating eastward propagating outflows, aided by inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by large CAPE to around 3000 J/kg. In the presence of seasonably moderate to strong shear, this activity seems likely to gradually organize. The evolution of one or two increasingly prominent lower/mid-tropospheric mesoscale vortices appears possible, with the quasi-stationary front north of Dodge City into the Russell/Salina vicinities one potential focus for strong, damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39669764 39879551 38509541 37709738 36459817 36049924 36329991 37309965 38230020 38669959 39149846 39669764 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Warned for 90mph winds! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Dodge City KS 610 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 KSC047-057-083-097-145-151-185-192345- /O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0066.000000T0000Z-240519T2345Z/ Ford KS-Kiowa KS-Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Stafford KS-Pratt KS- Edwards KS- 610 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR EASTERN FORD...KIOWA...SOUTHEASTERN HODGEMAN...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...STAFFORD...PRATT AND EDWARDS COUNTIES... At 609 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Garfield to near Hopewell to near Greensburg, moving east at 65 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR ALL TOWNS ALONG US-50 AND US-400 EAST OF MULLINVILLE AND OFFERLE. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Haviland, Macksville, Belpre, Byers, Hopewell, Zook, Wellsford, Cullison, Dillwyn, Pratt, St. John, Iuka, Stafford, Neola, Preston and Hudson. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3747 9865 3747 9982 3772 9970 3802 9972 3817 9857 3790 9847 3784 9847 TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 259DEG 57KT 3802 9923 3781 9902 3758 9923 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Oh my! Salina is warned for 100mph winds and golf ball hail! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wichita KS 607 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 KSC169-192315- /O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-240519T2315Z/ Saline KS- 607 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR SALINE COUNTY... At 606 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New Cambria, or near Salina, moving east at 25 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR EASTERN SALINE COUNTY. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Salina, Assaria, Gypsum, Brookville, Smolan, New Cambria, Falun, Glendale, Salina Airport, and Kipp. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3896 9737 3867 9737 3866 9793 3896 9793 TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 270DEG 24KT 3880 9752 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wichita KS 613 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Saline County in central Kansas... * Until 645 PM CDT. * At 612 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Niles to near New Cambria to Assaria, moving east at 30 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR EASTERN SALINE COUNTY HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. * Locations impacted include... Assaria, Gypsum, New Cambria, Bridgeport, and Kipp. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These storms have the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. && LAT...LON 3893 9737 3893 9738 3892 9738 3891 9737 3861 9737 3861 9771 3881 9757 3896 9754 3896 9738 TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 259DEG 25KT 3894 9743 3883 9745 3869 9760 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 19 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19 (edited) There was a 73G103 mph at a KSDOT site in Lincoln County Kansas Edited May 19 by Ingyball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Salina did in fact have 100mph winds. Quote Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wichita KS 605 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0559 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Salina Airport 38.79N 97.65W 05/19/2024 M100 MPH Saline KS ASOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 100mph wind with large hail is extremely dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Meanwhile there is a tornado warning just north of Elk City OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Eastern KS...far southeast NE...western MO...southwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 192255Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A developing MCS over central Kansas is expected to accelerate east-northeastward later this evening towards parts of the Mid to Lower Missouri Valley. Damaging winds from 70-90 mph will be the primary threat, most likely across eastern Kansas. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...As alluded to in MCD 0839, increasingly widespread severe wind gusts are expected as multiple intense thunderstorm clusters over north-central to southwest KS consolidate by mid-evening. The leading cluster across north-central KS should spread into northeast KS initially, with additional low-level warm-advection-driven storms possible farther northeast across the Mid-MO Valley. Surface dew points are generally in the mid 50s to low 60s across northeast KS and southeast NE currently and this may mitigate eastward intensification in the near-term. But a plume of higher surface dew points exists both to the south, emanating north from OK, and farther east into central/northern MO. Eventual cluster consolidation will probably yield eastward acceleration later this evening with embedded bows spreading across at least eastern KS. A plume of substantial MLCIN that will increase after dusk across eastern OK and southeast KS, may result in the more prominent severe wind threat arcing east-northeastward in time. ..Grams/Smith.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39859658 40619637 41179558 41169463 40899345 40459313 38249378 37019512 37069656 38219623 39299628 39859658 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: The RFD made almost a complete circle to create a very rain-wrapped circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Tornado warning up in SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 19 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19 https://x.com/MesoMax919/status/1792340348402090385 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 this is starting to get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 here's the squall line several minutes ago, with the [95+] wind report hiding in there somewhere at Salina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 20 Meteorologist Share Posted May 20 Tornado emergency in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 1 minute ago, Ingyball said: Tornado emergency in Oklahoma. Damn! Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Norman OK 739 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR Custer City... The National Weather Service in Norman has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Custer County in western Oklahoma... * Until 830 PM CDT. * At 738 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was observed 4 miles west of Custer City, moving east at 30 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Custer City. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... Thomas and Custer City. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3563 9905 3574 9904 3574 9874 3557 9876 TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 277DEG 24KT 3568 9897 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 And that's in an area that's not in a tornado area or just barely in the 2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 OKC needs to watch this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 No more TE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0844 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of west central into north central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260... Valid 200048Z - 200245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260 continues. SUMMARY...A long-lived isolated supercell storm may be maintained at least another couple of hours, possibly impacting at least northern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area by 10-11 PM CDT, with a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches, strong, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a continuing risk for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Embedded within southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30-35 kt, an isolated intense supercell has been slowly propagating eastward, away from the initiating dryline, to the north of the Clinton-Sherman vicinity. Low-level hodographs have been enlarging some, and a more notable increase in low-level shear is forecast through 04-06Z, along a strengthening southerly 850 mb jet (in excess of 50 kt) from northwest Texas toward the Medicine Loge KS area. However, with the onset of diurnal boundary-layer cooling, inhibition across and east of the dryline is already in the process of increasing, and lower/mid-tropospheric warming forecast across much of Oklahoma this evening will contribute further to this. Even so, given the favorable shear beneath a seasonably strong westerly mid/upper jet nosing into the south central Great Plains, and the strong potential instability eastward into the I-35 corridor, it is possible that the ongoing supercell may be maintained another couple of hours, eastward through northern portions of the Greater Oklahoma City area. ..Kerr.. 05/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 36039866 36089809 36029705 35899679 35629702 35609754 35559807 35679862 36039866 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 Tornado warning for Newton KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 this was the HRRR for an area just miles away from the big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 20 Author Share Posted May 20 That tornado was absolutely massive. Looks like there might be a new one, back to PDS warned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 20 Share Posted May 20 OKC is going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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