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May 14-June 24, 2024 | Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak


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PDS warned over Janesville WI.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
752 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

WIC105-230115-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-240623T0115Z/
Rock WI-
752 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL ROCK COUNTY...

At 752 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Janesville, moving east at 40 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Janesville, Milton, Tiffany, Hanover, Johnstown Center, Avalon,
Afton, and Emerald Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4258 8918 4272 8917 4279 8878 4257 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 260DEG 35KT 4265 8898

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

 

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ILN on the Tuesday/Wednesday period.

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However, we quickly rebound quickly rebound on Tuesday with another
surge of theta-e into the region ahead of the next system... a
rather potent low are of low pressure that is carving its way
through Canada. Most recent run of the blend has backed off a bit
the heat indices on Tuesday by about 8 to 10 degrees. We`ll see if
this trend continues. Either way, should still be a warm day on
Tuesday with feels-like temperatures reaching the 90s.

As a cold front is dragged into the Ohio Valley Tuesday
afternoon/evening, showers and storms will be forced out ahead of
it. Right now, there is still some ambiguity as to when storms will
move through (Tuesday late night? Wednesday day? Perhaps more than
one round?). Some guidance still hints at a MCS blowing through the
region at some point, but consistently between runs in terms of
timing/location has been lacking. Either way, the area is still lit
up by Colorado State machine learning Tuesday/Wednesday and given
ample instability that will be in place combined with the parent low
pressure moving through, would expect some type of organized
convection. Would also be remiss not to note that with PWATs 2
standard deviations above normal, any storms that roll through will
likely have some efficient rain rates. Any training that occurs may
result in areas of localized flooding or runoff.

 

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  Mesoscale Discussion 1383
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio River Valley into southern New
   York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 231742Z - 231945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will gradually increase through the
   afternoon, with damaging winds being the primary concern. A watch
   will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front
   draped across the OH River Valley, a corridor of upper 60s to lower
   70s dewpoints and pockets of heating will contribute to moderate
   surface-based instability -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates
   sampled by 12Z observed soundings. As modest midlevel height falls 
   overspread the region, surface-based thunderstorms should gradually
   increase in coverage along/ahead of the cold front. 

   Storms should slowly increase in intensity as they track eastward
   and intercept the destabilizing warm/moist sector. Given ample
   deep-layer westerly flow/shear (around 35-kt effective shear)
   roughly perpendicular to the front, a mix of loosely organized
   clusters and transient supercells are expected. Steepening low-level
   lapse rates and the enhanced low/midlevel flow will favor locally
   damaging gusts as the primary concern, especially with any localized
   upscale growth. However, marginally severe hail and a tornado or two
   cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained semi-discrete
   supercells. A watch (potentially two separate watches) will likely
   be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024

 

mcd1383.png

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  • The title was changed to May 14-June 24, 2024 | Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak

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