StormfanaticInd Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 (edited) Tuesday has outbreak potential yet again Edited May 18 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tuesday has outbreak potential yet again Day 4 enhanced 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 18 Moderators Share Posted May 18 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Tuesday has outbreak potential yet again Ya tuesday looks like it has big potential especially when it comes to a significant damaging wind event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 18 Share Posted May 18 A negatively tilted 982 low this time of year is enough to raise an eyebrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 (edited) Seems like we will have 3-5 major clusters/squall lines tomorrow in the central Plains. They could possibly join into one cluster or squall line. Isolated tornadoes might happen early on with a few supercells. On the other hand, low-level shear will be higher later in the night, which would favor tornadoes, but the cluster mode would not. Edited May 19 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Moderate risk for wind in KS today. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL KS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated. ...KS/OK vicinity... An active severe-weather day is expected during the late afternoon to mid-evening. Primary changes this outlook are to increase wind and hail probabilities with above-average guidance agreement regarding the likelihood of supercells evolving into multiple linear bows. Significant severe, from both hail and especially wind, appears likely. How far downstream higher-end intensity threats will persist towards the lower plains is more uncertain. General thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime across parts of the central Great Plains. This will probably persist through much of the morning into the afternoon, becoming more centered on the Mid-MO Valley to Upper Midwest. Pronounced differential boundary-layer heating is expected between this early-day activity and full insolation that yields hot surface temperatures across the southern High Plains. With a plume of mid to upper 60s surface dew points overspreading much of western/central OK into central KS, beneath a plume of very steep mid-level lapse rates, a strongly unstable airmass will develop with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg becoming common. A strengthening upper-level jet across the Southwest, nosing over the southern Rockies, should aid in dryline sharpening by late afternoon. Initial very high-based thunderstorms should form off the Raton Mesa behind the dryline, while other storms form along the dryline near the TX Panhandle/western OK border, and in the north-central KS vicinity near the warm front. The far southern dryline storms in northwest OK and near the warm front in KS should remain semi-discrete longer, and will be most capable of producing very large hail and a couple tornadoes. Between these two corridors, CAM signals are fairly consistent that a mix of outflow-dominated clusters with embedded supercells will move east-northeast during the evening. This includes evolution into linear bowing segments with forecast soundings, indicating potential for intense rear-inflow jet development. Given the highly favorable thermodynamic environment, coupled with the impinging of a mid-level jetlet across the southern High Plains, this scenario appears probable. The southern to central Great Plains low-level jet will strengthen during the evening, which should result in a large MCS with embedded bowing structures persisting after dusk. CAM guidance is fairly quick to indicate diminishing intensity as MLCIN rapidly increases across much of OK into at least southeast KS. But given the potential for prolific, organized severe wind swaths upstream, have increased severe probabilities downstream from the Mid-MO Valley and deeper into OK. ...Western NE to western/central SD... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the northern portion of the dryline during the late afternoon to early evening as a narrow plume of mid to upper 50s surface dew points spreads north. With a more confined and more modestly buoyant warm-moist sector relative to KS southward, overall threat should consist of isolated to scattered large hail and severe wind. ...FL... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of a slow-moving, positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Southeast. Best potential for a few supercells should be focused along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze across parts the central to south peninsula. Favorable deep-layer shear, in conjunction with large buoyancy, should foster a predominant threat of large hail, with isolated damaging winds possible as well. ..Grams/Bentley.. 05/19/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 "Boy, that escalated quickly." - R. Burgundy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 Yeah looking nasty up there in KS tomorrow. Also went from nothing to a marginal risk here so I guess there's an outside chance at something. Probably a better chance later in the week though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 19 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19 And whoooosh goes the dryline. Went from 95/36 this afternoon to 66/57 now. The wonders of southeasterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 4 hours ago, Chinook said: "Boy, that escalated quickly." - R. Burgundy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 9 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: And whoooosh goes the dryline. Went from 95/36 this afternoon to 66/57 now. The wonders of southeasterly winds. wetline? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Have to wonder if this could be a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0832 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 191829Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Observational trends suggest that storm initiation is probable within the next couple of hours in southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas. Development along the dryline farther east is less certain, but possible. Very-large hail, widespread severe wind gusts, and tornado or two are expected. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development has been steadily increasing along the Raton Mesa over the past couple of hours. While initial towers have not been sustained, the continued approach of a shortwave perturbation --now in the Four Corners vicinity per water vapor imagery--should aid in the deepening of these cumulus and eventually storm initiation somewhere in southeast Colorado into far western Kansas. Early convection will likely be present within a dry/well-mixed environment and be capable of strong to marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps hail. As this activity moves farther into Kansas, dewpoints now in the low 60s F should support rapid intensification. Effective shear 40-50 kts will promote supercells. The longevity of supercells is a bit uncertain. Should storms initiate on the dryline itself, they would be likely to remain supercellular longer. Activity approaching from the southwest would be more outflow dominant early in its life cycle, which could lead to a shorter duration of discrete mode as it encounters greater moisture. All that said, large to very large hail will be possible with any supercell. The tornado threat is not as clear given somewhat weak low-level winds that will increase after the storm mode will likely be more linear. Supercells in this strongly buoyant environment could still produce a tornado or two. With time, the expectation is for some amount of upscale growth to occur with an increase in severe wind gust potential. Some of these gusts could reach 75-90 mph. Farther south into northwest Oklahoma, timing of initiation is likely to be later than farther north given less influence of the shortwave and stronger capping. However, storms are more likely to be discrete and surface winds into western Oklahoma may remain more backed. In addition to the very-large hail and severe wind gust threat, tornadoes would be more probable in this mesoscale corridor. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37100193 37750235 38490247 38780223 38830145 38700018 38589922 38309882 37579851 37089858 35519932 35509997 35650028 37100193 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: Have to wonder if this could be a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Yep, crazy wind and hail probs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Not often you see pds thunderstorm watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 (edited) Already a tornado warned storm for Hays KS with possible tennis ball hail. Looks like a beast of a supercell. Edited May 19 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 19 Meteorologist Share Posted May 19 Probably had two tornadoes in Russell with a nasty RFD hitting the airport. ASOS reported a gust of 82 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 10 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Probably had two tornadoes in Russell with a nasty RFD hitting the airport. ASOS reported a gust of 82 mph. Appears that way and 2.5" hail. Quote Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wichita KS 331 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0327 PM Tornado 4 ESE Gorham 38.87N 98.96W 05/19/2024 Russell KS Broadcast Media Broadcast media reports tornado west of Russell. Quote Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Wichita KS 343 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0342 PM Hail Russell 38.89N 98.86W 05/19/2024 E2.50 Inch Russell KS Public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Confirmed tornado near Wilson KS. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Wichita KS 418 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 KSC053-105-192200- /O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-240519T2200Z/ Lincoln KS-Ellsworth KS- 418 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR LINCOLN AND NORTHERN ELLSWORTH COUNTIES... At 417 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Wilson, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of Lincoln and northern Ellsworth Counties, including the following locations... Ash Grove and Westfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Very rare for ILN to mention specific severe 3 or more days out especially tornadoes. Quote .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A warm day will be in place for Tuesday with high temperatures in the upper 80s. There will be the potential for afternoon pop up thunderstorms with the heating of the day. These will dissipate during the evening leaving a brief period of dry conditions. An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected during the morning hours on Wednesday. How quickly this moves out will have an impact on how widespread the severe weather will be later in the day. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to be severe with damaging winds. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. In addition, due to several rounds of precipitation expected, flash flooding will also be a concern. Expect this activity to continue into the night as a cold front works through the region. This feature will continue to push through on Thursday and precipitation chances will taper off. Cooler air will be ushered into the region with highs in the 70s expected for Thursday and lows in the 50s Thursday night. There is still quite a bit of model variation for Friday into the weekend on how much moisture will be drawn up into the region. Due to continued uncertainty during this time have limited precipitation chances Friday through Sunday to no more than the chance category. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 19 Author Share Posted May 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 35 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Very rare for ILN to mention specific severe 3 or more days out especially tornadoes. Ohio is in the zone this year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 There could be a sneaky mcs threat Monday into Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Derecho appears to be forming in Kansas 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Serious training looking like it's happening from Salina to Russell. That once massive supercell has backbuilded westward and going over the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 19 Share Posted May 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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