ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 2 minutes ago, Snow____ said: I see that too. Some parts anyway. Down around Maysville Kentucky looks to get the worst of it. Cincy Metro portion appears to be weakening but still packing a punch. My guess is they will issue isolated areas of severe thunderstorm warnings within the blanket SWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 They just warned most of that SWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 7 minutes ago, ak9971 said: My guess is they will issue isolated areas of severe thunderstorm warnings within the blanket SWS I’m gearing up to go outside and check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Pretty much a nothing burger here. Best part I think is that Maysville-Morehead sector. just got some heavy rain. A tiny bit of thunder and that’s it. The rain is even letting up already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 I am thinking this may be a bust today. Very welcomed if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 SPC thinking next round of storms being to form in the next hour or two back in Missouri. Spoiler Mesoscale Discussion 0977 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261836Z - 262100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storm producing very large hail and a few tornadoes may develop in the next 2 hours into southwest Missouri and vicinity. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low close to the KS/OK/MO tri-state area, where cumulus fields continue to deepen. This region is just ahead of a developing cold front with a deep layer of moisture convergence, and just north of a steep low-level lapse rate plume over eastern OK. Given the steep lapse rates aloft and continued heating near the surface low and front, storms may form within 1-2 hours here. Both instability and wind profiles favor supercells producing very large hail, and, a tornado risk will likely increase as storms proceed east into a more favorable low-level shear environment. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 18z HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 46 minutes ago, beaver56 said: I am thinking this may be a bust today. Very welcomed if it happens. I still think we need to watch how the next few hours unfold and how far north the line sets up. HRRR still struggling with the current system, it doesn’t have it moving out of my area until 5 and it’s basically done raining here already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 18z HRRR That looks promising. We’ll see. I need something 😂😂. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 I just went under a warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 11 minutes ago, ak9971 said: I still think we need to watch how the next few hours unfold and how far north the line sets up. HRRR still struggling with the current system, it doesn’t have it moving out of my area until 5 and it’s basically done raining here already. Models have definitely been struggling with today it seems. Will be a nowcast kind of night I’m thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 This is a damn nice storm. Would be better with thunder and lightning but very heavy rain and strong winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: I just went under a warning. Same here. Nice little swirly MCV-like cluster here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: This is a damn nice storm. Would be better with thunder and lightning but very heavy rain and strong winds. Ditto here. Nice strong bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 We’ll see if it holds up to anything with moxie. At least could see a gusty rain shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 (edited) Tornado warning just NW of Dayton! Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington OH 340 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in west central Ohio... Central Miami County in west central Ohio... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 340 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Englewood, moving north at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Dayton, Troy, Piqua, Vandalia, Englewood, Tipp City, West Milton, Covington, Pleasant Hill, Clayton, Union, Brookville, Phillipsburg, Laura, Potsdam, Casstown, Ludlow Falls, Ginghamsburg, Northview, and Circle Hill. This includes the following Interstates... I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 23 and 32. I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 66 and 81. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 3983 8423 3984 8440 4013 8442 4016 8428 4011 8410 TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 185DEG 32KT 3989 8431 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN Edited May 26 by snowlover2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Great view from the terminal radar. . animated.mov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NKYSnowLover Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0981.html Upgrade to Moderate for SE MO, SW KY coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Not surprised on the upgrade. There’s a brief couple hour window of discrete activity showing on several models before things go linear quickly. Will be interesting to see how long they can stay discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...from parts of southern and southeast Missouri into far northeast Arkansas...southern Illinois...and across the Missouri Bootheel and surrounding areas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261938Z - 262215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A strong tornado situation appears to be developing for later this afternoon and into the early evening. In addition, very large hail and eventual significant damaging winds may develop across the region. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows heating and rapid air mass recovery across southeast MO, where boundary layer clouds are developing, and, satellite derived PWAT indicates ample moisture. This is ahead of a cold front which is currently northwest of St. Louis and extends into southeast KS near a weak low. Surface observations show a very moist air mass with mid 70s F dewpoints spreading north out of AR, MS, and western TN as well, just south of the old/dissipating outflow boundary. A special 18Z LZK sounding shows strong shear, steep midlevel lapse rates and ample moisture. A capping inversion exits just above 850 mb, however, much less capping exists farther north into MO where lift will be increasing ahead of the surface trough. Forecast soundings across this region strong favor tornadic supercells as well, along with very large hail. Depending on storm mode later this evening, widespread damaging winds could also materialize. As such, the 20Z outlook will be upgraded to MODERATE RISK for the developing situation. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Another tornado warning just east of Huntington WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Sun is already trying to come back out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Latest from ILN. Quote .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Strong to severe thunderstorms that have developed in a moist and unstable regime in the vicinity of a warm front are pushing northeast across the area. Large scale forcing coupled with mesoscale elements have resulted in the severe weather threat that has necessitated Severe Thunderstorm Watch #316 to be in effect through 8pm. Severe weather should be relatively brief at any particular location due to the narrow width of the line of thunderstorms. Main threat has been straight line winds. Still monitoring for isolated tornado formation as well. Once the warm front moves northeast, an unstable airmass will remain in place, followed by a cold front extending from the low over Michigan. A broad area should experience additional showers and thunderstorms this evening and into the overnight hours, mainly over southern locations. Some strong to severe storms will still be possible, though surface based instability will be at a diurnal minimum. Heavy downpours leading to localized flooding will also be possible. All locations will see mild low temperatures in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Not surprised at the brief T warning since it looked like part of an MCV(comma-head). IMBY I witnessed some interesting erratic wind driven rain curtains but nothing too ominous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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