snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Watch coming. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana...northeastern Kentucky...western and central OH...western West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261620Z - 261745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the OH Valley ahead of ongoing storms. Damaging gusts appear to be the main threat, though a couple of QLCS tornadoes are also possible. A WW issuance will be needed in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...A QLCS, with a recent history of damaging gusts, continues to progress eastward toward a destabilizing airmass. Surface temperatures are warming to over 80 F amid upper 60s F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg in spots. In additions, 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear are in place, with the shear vectors oriented roughly normal to the eastward progressing QLCS. As such, damaging gusts (some exceeding severe limits) should accompany this QLCS downstream, and a couple of line-embedded tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance will be needed in the next hour or two to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 38248510 39428609 40248629 41548525 41638388 40778202 39358135 38288168 37988229 38098342 38248510 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 10 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Looks like Indy 500 start time will b delayed Still think they will have time to race today though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Watch coming. Didn't think they would issue a watch for this round. Storms do look pretty strong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Things getting real SW of Cincy. Moving north too. Quote BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1226 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Ohio County in southeastern Indiana... Ripley County in southeastern Indiana... Southwestern Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana... Switzerland County in southeastern Indiana... Carroll County in northern Kentucky... Grant County in northern Kentucky... Owen County in northern Kentucky... Gallatin County in northern Kentucky... * Until 145 PM EDT. * At 1226 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Salem to 7 miles east of Taylorsville, moving north at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Carrollton, Williamstown, Dry Ridge, Versailles, Vevay, Osgood, Warsaw, Dillsboro, Owenton, Florence, Kentucky Speedway, Pleasant, Hartford, Holton, Glencoe, Fairview, Ghent, Sanders, Napoleon, and Corinth. This includes the following Interstates... I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 70. I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 143 and 160. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. If on a lake, get away from the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm. To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely. && LAT...LON 3920 8544 3923 8537 3894 8486 3890 8487 3877 8464 3852 8448 3834 8479 3838 8490 3846 8492 3843 8496 3852 8498 3851 8503 3856 8501 3860 8508 3858 8521 3874 8533 3869 8520 3891 8520 3891 8544 TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 195DEG 40KT 3866 8603 3808 8521 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$ McGinnis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 (edited) Skies getting dark here in Indy with thunder ⛈️ Edit Now severe warned. Edited May 26 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Honestly the atmosphere may even too overworked to the south also after this first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Nasty line. 70mph and nickel sized hail!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Reading the most recent outlook from the SPC they seem very uncertain about the later storms given the ongoing convection and where the boundary will end up being later. Spoiler Details of subsequent round(s) of convection still remain to be resolved, based substantially on the character and extent of poleward return of the outflow boundary from the leading activity. As such, further modifications (some substantial) may be needed to especially western parts of the outlook areas today. One zone of relatively maximized deep ascent appears to be associated with passage of the convectively reinforced prefrontal boundary over parts of MO and southeastern KS, initially penetrating outflow air from the leading activity. This regime should continue to benefit from large-scale DCVA/ascent aloft, related to the shortwave trough and closely associated convectively induced/enhanced vorticity fields. Activity interacting with the outflow boundary's theta-e gradient, backed near-surface winds, and maximized mesoscale vorticity in low levels should pose the greatest potential for tornadoes. However the afternoon/evening tornado risk is not yet focused tightly, due to uncertainties regarding the evolution of a boundary still being produced at this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 1 minute ago, ak9971 said: Reading the most recent outlook from the SPC they seem very uncertain about the later storms given the ongoing convection and where the boundary will end up being later. Reveal hidden contents Details of subsequent round(s) of convection still remain to be resolved, based substantially on the character and extent of poleward return of the outflow boundary from the leading activity. As such, further modifications (some substantial) may be needed to especially western parts of the outlook areas today. One zone of relatively maximized deep ascent appears to be associated with passage of the convectively reinforced prefrontal boundary over parts of MO and southeastern KS, initially penetrating outflow air from the leading activity. This regime should continue to benefit from large-scale DCVA/ascent aloft, related to the shortwave trough and closely associated convectively induced/enhanced vorticity fields. Activity interacting with the outflow boundary's theta-e gradient, backed near-surface winds, and maximized mesoscale vorticity in low levels should pose the greatest potential for tornadoes. However the afternoon/evening tornado risk is not yet focused tightly, due to uncertainties regarding the evolution of a boundary still being produced at this time. Think today is going to bust for the second round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Severe t-storm watch up until 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 10 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Reading the most recent outlook from the SPC they seem very uncertain about the later storms given the ongoing convection and where the boundary will end up being later. Reveal hidden contents Details of subsequent round(s) of convection still remain to be resolved, based substantially on the character and extent of poleward return of the outflow boundary from the leading activity. As such, further modifications (some substantial) may be needed to especially western parts of the outlook areas today. One zone of relatively maximized deep ascent appears to be associated with passage of the convectively reinforced prefrontal boundary over parts of MO and southeastern KS, initially penetrating outflow air from the leading activity. This regime should continue to benefit from large-scale DCVA/ascent aloft, related to the shortwave trough and closely associated convectively induced/enhanced vorticity fields. Activity interacting with the outflow boundary's theta-e gradient, backed near-surface winds, and maximized mesoscale vorticity in low levels should pose the greatest potential for tornadoes. However the afternoon/evening tornado risk is not yet focused tightly, due to uncertainties regarding the evolution of a boundary still being produced at this time. This is the most recent outlook. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe storms are possible from the Ozarks and nearby Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley States today, with threats for tornadoes, severe gusts and occasional large hail. ...Ozarks/Arklatex to Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and south-central Appalachians... Ongoing/long-lived bowing complex, with a history of measured severe gusts and wind damage, continues to move east across central KY/northern TN at 16z. The downstream environment continues to destabilize as diurnal heating of upper 60s/near 70 def F dewpoints continues, and this complex is expected to continue moving east through this afternoon while maintaining a risk for damaging gusts and embedded QLCS circulations. In the wake of this convective system, a pronounced theta-e gradient has become established from northern TN westward, becoming more diffuse over southern MO, where strong heating is occurring. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop this afternoon across southern MO within a strongly sheared environment characterized by 50 kts of westerly shear, and strong MLCAPE. Supercell structures should be the dominant convective mode for several hours, with a risk for all severe hazards including very large hail and strong tornadoes. The convective system may congeal with time into more of a linear structure, with a risk for all hazards continuing into the overnight hours within an amply-sheared and moderately unstable environment. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded farther south over portions of northern MS/AL/far northwest GA based on 12z HREF calibrated guidance. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Cincy under a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Northeast Kentucky Western and Central Ohio Western West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving rapidly northeast posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles north of Dayton OH to 30 miles south southeast of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Bunting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: This is the most recent outlook. Thanks for the update, must have clicked on the link to soon when it said it was released on their site. Noticed this happens with their graphics at times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 ILN putting up warnings for an hour in advance, quite abnormal for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 (edited) 32 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Skies getting dark here in Indy with thunder ⛈️ Edit Now severe warned. My sister decided to go to the Indy 500 at the last minute. Been keeping her updated. Edited May 26 by Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: My sister decided to go to the Indy 500 at thre last minute. Been keeping her updated. Looks like we should get it in after the wave moves through I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Impressive line heading for Ohio 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 I hope this is going to be a good line especially if this is all there is today. Looks impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Appears to be something of a trend on the last few HRRR runs to both slow down the second batch and be a more NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Really impressive velocity returns with this line even as it gets closer to the radar. Definitely in for a good storm here I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 Really interesting that ILN just issued an SWS so far out in front of the line. Maybe they see it weakening as it moves into the area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 8 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Really interesting that ILN just issued an SWS so far out in front of the line. Maybe they see it weakening as it moves into the area. I was thinking the same thing cause it doesn’t appear to me to be weakening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 8 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Really interesting that ILN just issued an SWS so far out in front of the line. Maybe they see it weakening as it moves into the area. I see that too. Some parts anyway. Down around Maysville Kentucky looks to get the worst of it. Cincy Metro portion appears to be weakening but still packing a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 11 minutes ago, ak9971 said: Really interesting that ILN just issued an SWS so far out in front of the line. Maybe they see it weakening as it moves into the area. Wonder if they are doing that has an extended heads up of what's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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