snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Updated day nudged the enhanced a bit closer to the Dayton area but generally the same. The biggest change is a 10% hatched tornado area added. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSOURI TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...MUCH OF KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears likely across parts of the southeastern Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Multiple rounds of storms with the threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes appears likely across parts of east central Missouri and west central Illinois through much of Kentucky and adjacent portions of northern Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough will traverse the central CONUS and into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Sunday and Sunday night. The associated surface low will begin the period in central Kansas and somewhere near Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan by 12Z Monday. Along and south of this surface low, a moist/unstable warm sector will support multiple rounds of strong to severe storms. ...Missouri through central/southern Illinois/Indiana, Kentucky, and northern Tennessee... A convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough, responsible for the D1 severe weather episode in the central Plains is progged to be near the IA/IL/MO border at 12Z with a broad area of likely severe thunderstorms extending to the south. Storms on the northern end of this line will likely outrun the best instability and weaken during the morning, especially by the time they reach Lake Michigan. Farther south, low-level moisture advection will lead to rapid destabilization ahead of the line. This will support a sustained to perhaps increased severe weather threat as this line moves across southern Illinois and Indiana and into northern Kentucky. The primary threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts. Despite the stabilizing effect of this morning convection, recovery is anticipated across southern/eastern Missouri during the afternoon and eventually into southern Illinois and western Kentucky as a stout EML advects across the region from the west. The exact evolution of storm development in the wake of morning convection remains unclear. Persistent supercell development is possible on the remnant outflow boundary through the day which would have a continued wind/hail threat and could grow upscale into a cluster with an increased wind threat. However, even if storms do not continue to form along this boundary, additional storms are likely during the late afternoon/evening as a secondary shortwave trough approaches and erodes inhibition. 45 to 50 knots of effective shear will support supercell storm mode with a primary threat of large hail. In addition, if sufficient boundary layer recovery can occur north of the outflow boundary, the environment would be quite favorable for tornadoes with large low-level hodographs. A 10% hatched tornado threat has been added for the region where this threat may be greatest. Eventually, more widespread thunderstorm development is expected along the advancing cold front during the late evening which should move southeast and persist for the entire overnight period. This will pose a primary threat for damaging winds although there will be some tornado threat given the strengthening low-level jet during the evening hours. The orientation of the line will be the primary limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with this overnight squall line. ...Eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into Arkansas... A strongly unstable and only slightly capped environment is expected during the afternoon hours. Isolated supercells capable of large hail are possible during the afternoon as ascent from the mid-level trough overspread this region, but low-level focus will be nebulous. The better storm threat will arrive with the cold front during the evening with a damaging wind threat. However, some large hail is also possible with more scattered development/potentially transient supercell development on the southern extent of the line. ...Northern Illinois and southeast Wisconsin... A narrow area near the surface low may destabilize during the late afternoon/early evening with sufficient instability for a low-topped hail/wind threat near the surface low for a few hours during the early evening hours. ...Eastern Kansas... Remnant low-level moisture behind the cold front, combined with cold air advection aloft will lead to some destabilization behind the cold front during the afternoon/evening. A few southeastward moving storms/clusters may pose a large hail/damaging wind threat with the threat waning after sunset. ...Eastern Arkansas across northern MS/AL and southern Tennessee... A squall line along/ahead of the approaching cold front will move across the Mid-MS Valley into southern TN/northern AL after midnight. A very moist/unstable boundary layer and strong deep layer shear will support a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours. Some guidance indicates storm development ahead of the line across AL/TN/MS which would have a threat for all severe hazards given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong low-level and deep-layer shear. ..Bentley.. 05/25/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Tomorrow around here looks like a wind event. The setup I don’t believe the same but if I recall a similar forecast for 2019 being straight line wind event. Cells ended up staying discrete and we all remember how that went. Hoping for a relatively tame two days across the country and we can have some relief with this pattern change for the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Latest thoughts from ILN. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The frontal boundary draped along the Ohio River early Sunday morning will lift back to the north as a warm front through the day on Sunday. Models appear to be in fairly good agreement that an ongoing convective complex off to our west Sunday morning will track eastward along the boundary and overspread our area through mid to late afternoon. However, there remains some uncertainty with the amount of instability that will be present ahead of this and as a result how well this initial shot of pcpn will maintain itself as it outruns the better forcing. Therefore, the severe threat also remains somewhat uncertain with this initial activity through mid to late afternoon, but the the highest threat would likely be for areas along and west of I-75. Damaging winds would be the main severe weather threat with this initial line of storms. How the initial wave of pcpn plays out will impact how well we are able to recover through Sunday evening. If we are able to recover enough, a more widespread severe weather event will be possible later Sunday evening into Sunday night, most likely in the 9 PM to 2 AM timeframe. This would be accompanied by more favorable wind/shear profiles, leading to the threat for damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. In addition heavy rainfall would be possible with these storms along with the potential for localized flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 25 Meteorologist Share Posted May 25 Dryline has pushed through here. Quite the contrast from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 Storms firing early in NW Texas. Wonder if those will impact the environment for OK later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Well here we go. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0954 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...much of western into central Oklahoma...northwest Texas...and south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251956Z - 252330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornadic supercells capable of dangerous tornadoes and extreme hail are expected to develop from northwest Texas into much of southwest and southern Oklahoma through evening. A similar threat is expected to develop with rapidly changing conditions this evening from northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas. DISCUSSION...Moisture continues to rapidly increase from northwest TX into southern OK, with 70s F dewpoints and increasing shear. Extreme instability will favor particularly large supercells, with right-moving cells possibly traveling for over 100 miles, producing periodic tornadoes and giant hail. The initial threat is from activity now developing over northwest TX, and this should spread north of the Red River and move into south-central OK by evening. Farther north, destabilization and a rapidly increasing low-level jet will result in a developing tornadic supercell threat into the evening. Storms may initialize near the TX Panhandle/OK border ot even toward the KS border over the next few hours. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Man this is crazy wording. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southcentral Kansas Western and Central Oklahoma Extreme Northcentral Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorm development is expected to continue through this evening, with storms moving generally east across the watch area. The risk for strong, long-track tornadoes will exist, in addition to giant hail, possibly up to 5 inches in diameter. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 75 mph can also be expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Hutchinson KS to 60 miles west southwest of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 306...WW 307... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Bunting Quote Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (90%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes High (80%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (60%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (80%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 9 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Man this is crazy wording. This is not going to end well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 After not being in a PDS watch since 2019 this is now the third one of the year for me. Idk I think those storms in NW TX may have fired too early but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Surprised there were no watches for Western PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 DVD hail is back! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Tornado on the ground in Texas already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 Think there was just a brief tornado SW of Frederick, OK. CC drop for a few scans. Looks like it lifted now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Still very concerned about tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 6 hours ago, snowlover2 said: As far as tomorrow, it appears the 12z HRRR dissipates the early storms a little quicker while the 12z NAM/3K NAM doesn't dissipate as fast as it once showed. Either way all show redevelopment behind it. Overall it seems like there's been a change in the morphology of the system for tomorrow. Result is a weaker surface low heading for Lake Michigan and also a bit farther south than previously shown. Both of these factors cast a lot of doubt on how far north the severe threat will get, but still have to watch how the morning activity progresses. If it's faster, then it could allow more time for recovery farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 We got a PDS! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 520 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 TXC077-252300- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0135.000000T0000Z-240525T2300Z/ Clay TX- 520 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY... At 520 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Windthorst, moving east at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado in Windhorst. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Bellevue, Bluegrove, southern Lake Arrowhead, Vashti, and Joy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted May 25 Meteorologist Share Posted May 25 (edited) 21z FWD sounding... whew Edited May 25 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Storm coverage really picking up as we head into the increased parameter timeframe. A lot of little blips starting to appear farther west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Ryan hall has a tornado touching down on his stream in Oklahoma. Funnel just started dropping down in the past few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 News 9 has it as well. North of the town of mutual. Nice cone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 3 tornado warnings in the same cluster in northwest Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Confirmed north of Chester OK. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 630 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 OKC093-151-153-260000- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0137.000000T0000Z-240526T0000Z/ Woods OK-Major OK-Woodward OK- 630 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN WOODS...WESTERN MAJOR AND EAST CENTRAL WOODWARD COUNTIES... At 630 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 6 miles north of Chester, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Bouse Junction. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3623 9902 3638 9908 3638 9907 3652 9855 3637 9853 3622 9852 3622 9855 TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 255DEG 36KT 3631 9896 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Maybe it was a good thing they didn't go high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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