OxfordOh_ Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 (edited) Hmmm this is for Sunday latest HRRR a lot different from the NAM granted this is only up to 8 pm Edited May 25 by OxfordOh_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Just now, OxfordOh_ said: Hmmm this is for Sunday latest HRRR a lot different from the NAM Yeah because NAM/3K NAM kill off the first batch a lot faster. That said HRRR still blows up storms behind the first batch(see loop on last page). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 9 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Yeah because NAM/3K NAM kill off the first batch a lot faster. That said HRRR still blows up storms behind the first batch(see loop on last page). Yep exactly. Either one is looking concerning still waiting on the latest nam to load now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 6 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Yep exactly. Either one is looking concerning still waiting on the latest nam to load now 0z NAM still less excited with the early batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: Well it’s safe to say the models are certainly not in agreement at this moment 😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 (edited) 1 hour ago, ElectricStorm said: What The HRRR finally caught up to the brains of the SPC forecasters significant tornado parameter will be high through a lot of Oklahoma! Edited May 25 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 0z RRFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 this is the 18z NAM (12km) for west of Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Sunday is starting to look more conditional for Indy pending what happens with morning mcs. This is a bit of good news as we do not need a tornado outbreak occurring during the Indy 500 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 Looking at all of the 0z data (not just HRRR and RRFS lol) I wouldn't be opposed to leaving it at moderate for one more outlook cycle to see if we get any more consistency the data. Although I think there's a pretty good chance they go ahead and upgrade at 6z. Regardless of outlook level this is going to be an extremely dangerous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 Wow Day 2 is out an hour early. Must really be focusing on the Day 1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 16 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Wow Day 2 is out an hour early. Must really be focusing on the Day 1... Really thought they would expand the enhanced more into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 (edited) Still moderate risk for now. They were considering an upgrade. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast from late afternoon into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central and southern Great Plains... Much uncertainty plagues this outlook cycle, with the level 4-Moderate risk left as-is. This evening's guidance has trended slower and more confined with the boundary-layer moisture return, with most CAMs also suggesting earlier afternoon initiation occurring along the periphery of the richer moisture in west TX. Level 5-High risk potential remains evident with the 00Z HRRR indicating a possible tornado outbreak scenario with long-lived strong to violent tornadoes. Consensus of evening guidance suggests low-level moisture return will be within a confined swath emanating north from the south-central TX portion of the Rio Grande Valley into west TX. This will occur downstream of a modestly amplified mid-level trough, consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses, ejecting across the West into the central and southern High Plains. Surface temperatures west of the dryline will become hot, and most CAMs indicate early to mid-afternoon thunderstorm development in the TX Big Country/western north TX vicinity. It is probable that this will become the southern extent of the overall severe threat with slow-moving supercells persisting into the evening. Across OK/KS, richer and deeper boundary-layer moisture ahead of the dryline should be confined to western OK through late afternoon. A more well-mixed boundary layer is expected farther north in western/central KS, while the rich moisture should be shallow in central OK before deepening later. Most guidance suggests high-based thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon across southwest NE and northwest KS, where mid-level cooling will be greatest. Very large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats during the afternoon with relatively elongated/straight hodographs supporting potential for left and right-splitting supercells. A strengthening low-level jet will aid in the tornado threat substantially increasing by early evening. The most volatile environment for long-lived, intense tornadic supercells should exist over the western half of OK. Primary uncertainty precluding an upgrade is the degree of impact earlier afternoon storms to the south may have on this setup with left-splits/outflows. The northern periphery of the richer/deeper moisture surge and robust low-level jet is eventually expected to reach at least into southern KS during the evening. Supercells in this region will strengthen as this occurs, and become capable of producing long-lived, intense tornadoes after dusk. But with time tonight, increasing large-scale ascent should support a supercell to bow echo to MCS evolution towards the Ozark Plateau vicinity. This should yield a swath of damaging winds, with embedded significant severe gusts and tornadoes possible as it tracks eastward along the MLCAPE gradient overnight. ...Eastern States... Three areas of level 1-MRGL risk are forecast today with sporadic severe hail and locally damaging winds possible. Remnant morning convection and attendant MCVs may aid in isolated severe across parts of the Deep South early, before spreading/developing east towards parts of the coastal Atlantic Southeast during the afternoon. Separately, a marginal supercell wind profile will also exist along the southeast FL sea breeze. Across the Lower Great Lakes to central/northern Appalachians, initial mid-level ridging will evolve to a flatter, zonal flow regime. The trailing surface front attendant to a nearly stationary, occluded cyclone along the southeast MB/northwest ON border area should aid in isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which should become strong. ..Grams/Moore.. 05/25/2024 Edited May 25 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Still moderate risk for now. They were considering an upgrade. I think it's a good call. I think it's always good to wait for actual obs the day of before adding a high risk. Especially a day like this with so many uncertainties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 5 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: I think it's a good call. I think it's always good to wait for actual obs the day of before adding a high risk. Especially a day like this with so many uncertainties. Agreed, in this case I think it's definitely best to wait for morning or midday to decide on an upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Saturday has felt like one of the those days where no one knows what's going to happen until it's happening. Of course we all know how bad these kind of days can end up being. Several of the TV mets down here have talked about the possibility of a cap bust, but all seem to reject that notion. I also wouldn't bet on a cap bust considering what we've seen this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 HRRR and RRFS are still by themselves showing a higher level day with the HRRR still all over the place on storm placement. Don't think we need an upgrade at 13z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 25 Meteorologist Share Posted May 25 My biggest concern for Oklahoma that could limit potential is 700mb temperatures being too warm with most models showing 11 and 12C. This wouldn't be an issue with a more potent trough, but with a weaker shortwave, it could lead to updrafts failing. That said, once an updraft gets going any storm will quickly become dangerous. I'm also concerned about moisture return into southern Kansas. Dews are in the lower 50s right now and flow doesn't become more southerly until Noon. Could be a close miss, but if it's not, just like Oklahoma storms could become dangerous very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 25 Author Share Posted May 25 Current Td's a couple degrees higher than the 12z CAMs in central OK. Not a fan. I think we see at least a few strong tornadoes today regardless of risk level. I just hope they miss all the populated areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 As far as tomorrow, it appears the 12z HRRR dissipates the early storms a little quicker while the 12z NAM/3K NAM doesn't dissipate as fast as it once showed. Either way all show redevelopment behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 53 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: As far as tomorrow, it appears the 12z HRRR dissipates the early storms a little quicker while the 12z NAM/3K NAM doesn't dissipate as fast as it once showed. Either way all show redevelopment behind it. Been seeing a few people throw out the Derecho word for tomorrow hmm 🤔 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 I'm guessing there will be no upgrade to high on the next day 1 update in a few minutes. They usually put out an MD if they plan too and haven't seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Yep stayed moderate. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible from late afternoon into tonight over parts of the central and southern Plains. A few long-lived supercells capable of intense tornadoes may occur. Giant hail and destructive wind gusts are also expected. ...Central/Southern Plains... Overall, little change was made to the ongoing outlook with this update, with the primary change being an eastward expansion of the Enhanced/Level 3 Risk over portions of North Texas based on the 12z HREF guidance. Strong low-level moisture advection continues across northwest TX/southern OK at 16z, and this trend is expected to continue and expand north into southern KS with time. Strong diurnal heating amid a rapidly moistening boundary layer and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield strong/extreme MLCAPE this afternoon along and east of the dryline. Initial supercell development is anticipated late this afternoon across northwest TX, where strong diurnal heating should continue to erode CINH. Isolated intense supercell development is also expected farther north along the dryline towards 00z across OK/southern KS, where rapidly returning moisture into a well-heated boundary layer coincident with a strengthening low-level jet should contribute to a high-end/all hazards severe risk. Additional isolated supercell development is also anticipated near the warm front across northern KS. The primary uncertainty remains storm coverage, with 12z high-res guidance continuing to exhibit a range of solutions. As mid-level flow increases and a shortwave trough approaches, an extremely favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment is expected to be in place across the Enhanced/Moderate Risk areas from late afternoon into tonight. The risk for strong/intense tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and significant severe winds remains evident. ...Southeast... Rapid diurnal heating of a moist low-level air mass is occurring downstream of ongoing convection, and temperatures have warmed well into the 80s as of 16z. Strong thunderstorms over southeast AL are expected to continue moving southeast within a moderately-sheared/northwest flow environment and be capable of strong/possibly damaging gusts and severe hail. A small Slight/Level 2 Risk has been introduced with this outlook, where the more favorable overlap of 35 kts of northwesterly effective shear and moderate/strong instability will exist. ...Lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected near the cold front this afternoon, and along a nearly parallel, prefrontal trough/convergence zone. Storms should move eastward/southeast and persist into early evening. Aside from lift along those boundaries, activity will be supported by diurnally weakened MLCINH, with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F contributing to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Weak low-level flow and nearly unidirectional low/middle-level wind profiles will tend to limit shear, however sufficient cloud-bearing layer shear should exist to support multicell storm structures. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be possible from the best-organized convection. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 05/25/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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