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May 6-9, 2024 | POTENTIAL OUTBREAK 🌪


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I wouldn't call today a bust at all, but I will say i'm very glad it's full potential wasn't realized. We could've had multiple Barnsdall-Bartlesville type tornadoes on the ground at the same time if it had been. 

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Posted (edited)

Discrete supercell west of Wynnewood isn't even close to mature but has very solid rotation already, not a good sign. Things should still be incredibly favorable so i'm watching it close. Let's hope it has trouble maturing further.

 

Screenshot_20240507_011842_RadarScope.jpg

Edited by Neoncyclone
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  • Meteorologist

I'm glad last night didn't quite live up to the potential it could have, but it sucks that more towns got destroyed. I'm worried about all the spacing being shown on the CAMs for today. Not many strong 0-3km UH tracks showing up, but I have to wonder if that's due to storms being too small for the models to depict and not a result of weak convection. The environment will supercells. 

 

For Wednesday, it looks like initially it could be very favorable for tornadoes before it becomes a wind event. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a wind driven high risk for Wednesday. 

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Latest from ILN for today and tonight pretty strong wording there.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Vigorous low pressure over the northern Plains will lead to a moist
southwest flow of air across the Ohio Valley today. A decaying band
of showers with isolated thunder is expected to slide east through
the region late this morning through early this afternoon. Severe
storms are not expected with this band.

As a shortwave is ejected northeast from the southern Plains into
the Ohio Valley, an increase in mid- level flow and backing low-
level winds will be seen in the vertical profile by later in the
afternoon. A surge in warm, humid air will likely occur just ahead
of the shortwave`s arrival. Forecast soundings from the HRRR are
concerning, with surface CAPE late this afternoon into the early
evening approaching 2,500 J/kg and effective shear reaching around
60 knots. Curved hodographs lead to effective SRH exceeding 200
m^2/s^2.

The latest guidance suggests a less forced environment late this
afternoon, so scattered, discrete supercells are expected. All
hazards appear likely with these storms. High temperatures will
reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front associated with the shortwave will shift east across
the local forecast area late this evening through midnight. While
hodographs are a bit less curved for this period, an increase in
forcing leads to higher coverage of thunderstorms, and likely a more
organized linear mode. Can`t rule out some embedded supercells as
well based on persistent bulk shear ahead of the front.
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5 minutes ago, junior said:

We’ll see how long it takes to destabilize from the line later. May be too late for anything significant here 

That’s what I was thinking myself. Models show us having no problem destabilizing but we will ultimately see!

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1 minute ago, Central Illinois said:

Screenshot 2024-05-07 at 12.21.00 PM.png

Screenshot 2024-05-07 at 12.21.08 PM.png

I wasn't able to read the updated Day 1 but this seems to fall in line with the NW expansion of the enhanced area.

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