OxfordOh_ Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Just now, cperry29 said: I could do without the hail also 😩 That’s a huge area! Rare for our area too wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Lucky me - have a client meeting in Dublin at 3:00 tomorrow. May need to see if they're up for a Zoom/Teams meeting so I can be at home with car in garage 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 2 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: That’s a huge area! Rare for our area too wow That hail threat is starting to get my attention. They are saying large to very large hail is possible 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 2 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: That hail threat is starting to get my attention. They are saying large to very large hail is possible Orangutan Hail? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: That hail threat is starting to get my attention. They are saying large to very large hail is possible Having no garage I’m hoping we can miss that part! 🤦🏻♂️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 Storms are taking off in western Kansas 👀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Yeah that's a yikes from me 😳 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 (edited) 95/90! 😳 Edited May 6 by ElectricStorm 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Bottom line up front... the setup for severe storms appears to have increased and become a bit more concerning given recent data trends. The main time period for severe potential locally appears to be somewhere in the vicinity of the 4 PM to 11 PM EDT window, likely maximizing between 6 PM and 10 PM. Diving a bit further into the details, expect that a (somewhat decaying) band of convection will move into the region by mid/late morning Tuesday. This activity represents "convective leftovers" from the central plains severe weather episode expected later today. Although the activity /should/ be on a weakening trend with eastward progression closer to/into the ILN FA around/after noontime, a slightly slower arrival may mean that sufficient diurnal destabilization could occur /ahead/ of this activity, lending itself to at least some potential of SB- convection and redevelopment along the eastward-moving arc. Do think that the activity should survive long enough to enter the local area, potentially providing a focus for some redevelopment along it`s trajectory through the ILN FA between about 12 PM and 4 PM. Certainly a few strong/severe storms may develop associated with this feature (providing it holds together enough), with strong/damaging winds and some small hail being the primary threat through the first half of the afternoon. Once we get past about 3-4 PM or so, the environment is going to become increasingly conducive to redevelopment of convection (initially back to the W in IL/IN), with a conditionally- volatile setup very possible given rapid destabilization in the wake of early afternoon activity. There are still a few uncertainties in just /how much/ redevelopment occurs across IL/IN mid/late afternoon before it overspreads the local area late afternoon through the evening. Nevertheless, a strongly unstable environment (courtesy of SB/MLCAPE in excess of 2000J/kg) should develop within a decently-wide corridor (nudging in from the SW past 21z). This will occur amidst an environment with plenty of forcing and ascent, good midlevel lapse rates (supporting robust updraft development/strength), and good deep- layer speed shear. A H5 jet speed max will nose to the NE into the OH Vly by late afternoon/evening, eliciting an elongated and subtly-curved hodograph from the sfc to about H5. There is some directional shear in the BL as well, but the "fly-in-the-ointment," so to speak, is the backing of winds in the upper levels within the H2-H5 layer, producing an anticyclonic curvature to the end of the hodograph. This depicts a likely scenario that is conducive to discrete/cellular activity (perhaps with splitting supercells), with some clustering possible. In addition to the large to very large hail threat, the primary concern would be if sfc winds are able to back immediately ahead of the convection, especially between about 21z-03z, creating local enhancements to the 0-1km/0-3km SRH fields. This backing appears most probable/favorable near/N of I-70, suggesting the tornado potential is slightly greater in these areas than further S toward/S of the OH Rvr with the LL flow remains more veered. Given the sufficient overlap between a strongly-unstable environment, good forcing/ascent, and good deep-layer shear, all hazards are in-play Tuesday late afternoon/evening, with the greatest tornado threat likely to focus near/N of I-70 in a slightly more conducive environment with the somewhat backed LL/sfc flow. And although storm motions should be fairly quick, cannot completely rule out some brief heavy rain/flooding, especially in areas that have received significant rain over the past few days. Have adjusted HWO wording to reflect this latest thinking. Quite the write up from IlN for tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted May 6 Admin Share Posted May 6 Folks - today means business. Stay vigilant. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 (edited) 24 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Bottom line up front... the setup for severe storms appears to have increased and become a bit more concerning given recent data trends. The main time period for severe potential locally appears to be somewhere in the vicinity of the 4 PM to 11 PM EDT window, likely maximizing between 6 PM and 10 PM. Diving a bit further into the details, expect that a (somewhat decaying) band of convection will move into the region by mid/late morning Tuesday. This activity represents "convective leftovers" from the central plains severe weather episode expected later today. Although the activity /should/ be on a weakening trend with eastward progression closer to/into the ILN FA around/after noontime, a slightly slower arrival may mean that sufficient diurnal destabilization could occur /ahead/ of this activity, lending itself to at least some potential of SB- convection and redevelopment along the eastward-moving arc. Do think that the activity should survive long enough to enter the local area, potentially providing a focus for some redevelopment along it`s trajectory through the ILN FA between about 12 PM and 4 PM. Certainly a few strong/severe storms may develop associated with this feature (providing it holds together enough), with strong/damaging winds and some small hail being the primary threat through the first half of the afternoon. Once we get past about 3-4 PM or so, the environment is going to become increasingly conducive to redevelopment of convection (initially back to the W in IL/IN), with a conditionally- volatile setup very possible given rapid destabilization in the wake of early afternoon activity. There are still a few uncertainties in just /how much/ redevelopment occurs across IL/IN mid/late afternoon before it overspreads the local area late afternoon through the evening. Nevertheless, a strongly unstable environment (courtesy of SB/MLCAPE in excess of 2000J/kg) should develop within a decently-wide corridor (nudging in from the SW past 21z). This will occur amidst an environment with plenty of forcing and ascent, good midlevel lapse rates (supporting robust updraft development/strength), and good deep- layer speed shear. A H5 jet speed max will nose to the NE into the OH Vly by late afternoon/evening, eliciting an elongated and subtly-curved hodograph from the sfc to about H5. There is some directional shear in the BL as well, but the "fly-in-the-ointment," so to speak, is the backing of winds in the upper levels within the H2-H5 layer, producing an anticyclonic curvature to the end of the hodograph. This depicts a likely scenario that is conducive to discrete/cellular activity (perhaps with splitting supercells), with some clustering possible. In addition to the large to very large hail threat, the primary concern would be if sfc winds are able to back immediately ahead of the convection, especially between about 21z-03z, creating local enhancements to the 0-1km/0-3km SRH fields. This backing appears most probable/favorable near/N of I-70, suggesting the tornado potential is slightly greater in these areas than further S toward/S of the OH Rvr with the LL flow remains more veered. Given the sufficient overlap between a strongly-unstable environment, good forcing/ascent, and good deep-layer shear, all hazards are in-play Tuesday late afternoon/evening, with the greatest tornado threat likely to focus near/N of I-70 in a slightly more conducive environment with the somewhat backed LL/sfc flow. And although storm motions should be fairly quick, cannot completely rule out some brief heavy rain/flooding, especially in areas that have received significant rain over the past few days. Have adjusted HWO wording to reflect this latest thinking. Quite the write up from IlN for tomorrow. No kidding - of course, we live under 20 miles north of I-70, so should be fun in our area. Local met was just on radio saying after 6:00 tomorrow. Once meeting is over tomorrow, getting the hell home. Edited May 6 by Crowbar 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Starting to get some cells going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 12 minutes ago, Crowbar said: No kidding - of course, we live under 20 miles north of I-70, so should be fun in our area. Local met was just on radio saying after 6:00 tomorrow. Once meeting is over tomorrow, getting the hell home. Exactly how im feeling! Gotta knock a few things out tomorrow in the morning and then I’m staying home. Be safe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 6 Author Share Posted May 6 (edited) Cells on oklahoma look like they are ready to produce Edited May 6 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Oh boy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 No chill with 3knam still yikes 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 (edited) Tornado is about to touchdown on Reeds stream! Edited May 6 by OxfordOh_ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 News 9 has a massive wall cloud on the cell west of Enid. Really got going in the last 15 minutes or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Looked like a very brief tornado south of Helena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 Multi vortex tornado on the ground SE of Okeene, OK on News 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 (edited) 4 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Multi vortex tornado on the ground SE of Okeene, OK on News 9 Cell to its southwest looks like it’s wrapping up nicely too. Edited May 6 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Confirmed tornado north of Loyal OK. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 658 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 OKC047-073-070030- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0099.000000T0000Z-240507T0030Z/ Kingfisher OK-Garfield OK- 658 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN KINGFISHER AND SOUTH CENTRAL GARFIELD COUNTIES... At 658 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 9 miles north of Loyal, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Hennessey, Waukomis, Bison, and Lacey. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3604 9786 3605 9818 3613 9819 3628 9786 TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 260DEG 26KT 3610 9812 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Reeds about to intercept the cell going south of Covington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 News 9 had a tornado down near Douglas, OK may have lifted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Confirmed tornado near Covington. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 756 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 OKC047-103-070130- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0104.000000T0000Z-240507T0130Z/ Noble OK-Garfield OK- 756 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR WESTERN NOBLE AND SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES... At 756 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Covington, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Covington, Douglas, Lucien, and Hayward. This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 182 and 201. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3651 9732 3622 9731 3616 9770 3616 9772 3629 9778 TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 248DEG 23KT 3627 9760 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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