May 6-9, 2024 | POTENTIAL OUTBREAK 🌪

[snowlover2]

18z GFS not backing off on Wednesday.

[Chinook]

00z HRRR data starting to roll in with a couple of significant supercells in far north Oklahoma and maybe adjacent areas of Kansas tomorrow.

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR through 0z WED.

[OxfordOh_]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

0z HRRR through 0z WED.

Tuesday is lookin pretty rough up here in the ohio valley sheesh 

Edited May 6 by OxfordOh_

[ElectricStorm]

That's a gnarly run for the northern half of OK... Also seems to be firing a few more cells further south into central OK. Yeah I'm not a fan 

[Chinook]

Look at this crazy double squall line on the NAM-3km. This model definitely keeps the supercell(s)/heavy squalls down in southern Oklahoma, a huge difference from the HRRR.

[Ingyball]

1 minute ago, Chinook said:

Look at this crazy double squall line on the NAM-3km. This model definitely keeps the supercell(s)/heavy squalls down in southern Oklahoma, a huge difference from the HRRR.

In my experience, the 3K NAM loves to go linear way too fast. I agree with linear where the split flow occurs and to the north, but south of there where the flow is near orthogonal to the boundary I believe supercells will be favored. Might have a transition to semi-discrete in southern Kansas. 

[snowlover2]

0z NAM

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

0z HRRR through 0z WED.

Wow Tuesday looks rough here in the OV. 

[StormfanaticInd]

This has potential to be the worst outbreak of the year which is really saying something 

[OxfordOh_]

13 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Wow Tuesday looks rough here in the OV. 

N of cincy talk about a sounding 🤦🏻‍♂️

[snowlover2]

0z GFS still looking pretty mean on Wednesday.

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This has potential to be the worst outbreak of the year which is really saying something 

That's a possibility. If you look at the tornado reports listed on Wikipedia from April 25-28, last week, there are 139 confirmed tornadoes in 96 hours. I assume that a lot of the tornadoes were surveyed but I don't know if 100% of them were.  That number 139 will be hard to beat. Unfortunately we must say that the following days could be deadlier.

[Roger1989]

 "00z HRRR" was trending on X/Twitter. I don't think I've ever seen that.

Edited May 6 by Roger1989

[StormfanaticInd]

The setup for Tuesday is really starting to remind me of March 14. Morning storms followed by supercells 

[Ingyball]

Here's some discussion I did for today's setup.

https://x.com/IngyBall/status/1787361242967101642

[StormfanaticInd]

Kept it a slight for Tuesday. 

They considered a tornado driven high risk for today. 😬

[snowlover2]

Large enhanced area for Wednesday.

[Grace]

[Grace]

 

 

 

Edited May 6 by Grace

[OxfordOh_]

HRRR still lookin nasty for Tuesday 

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like some OKC mets are getting inside info from the SPC and are saying they will upgrade to high risk from OKC to the KS border 

EDIT: confirmed by SPC 

Edited May 6 by ElectricStorm

[OxfordOh_]

5 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

Looks like some OKC mets are getting inside info from the SPC and are saying they will upgrade to high risk from OKC to the KS border 

EDIT: confirmed by SPC 

Ugh.🙃

[StormfanaticInd]

Incoming HIGH RISK 

[StormfanaticInd]

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  

WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...  

   

..SUMMARY  

  

A REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE STRONG,  

LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES, AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE  

THUNDERSTORM GUSTS, IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  

PLAINS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.  

   

..SYNOPSIS  

  

IN MID/UPPER LEVELS, A STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT IN  

MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THROUGH A LOW  

OVER NORTHEASTERN UT, THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER  

NEAR THE AZ/NM LINE. THE MAIN 500-MB LOW SHOULD PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD  

TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS AND DEEPEN BY 00Z, WITH TROUGH NORTHWESTWARD  

OVER CENTRAL MT AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF CO/NM.  

  

A BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW FROM CENTRAL CO TO THE FOUR CORNERS  

AREA -- SHOULD SWING NORTHEASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD, REACHING SOUTHERN  

SD, WESTERN NE AND EASTERN CO BY 00Z. THIS PERTURBATION THEN SHOULD  

SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD, POSSIBLY MERGING WITH CONVECTIVELY GENERATED  

VORTICITY OVER NE AND SD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AND REACHING  

EASTERN SD, SOUTHWESTERN MN AND IA BY 12Z. A WEAKER, BUT STILL  

INFLUENTIAL PERTURBATION -- NOW OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN NV/NORTHERN  

AZ -- SHOULD MAKE A NET EASTWARD SHIFT TO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NM  

AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z, REACHING SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK BY  

12Z. ASSOCIATED SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA SHOULD REMAIN  

OVER AND NORTH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.  

  

AT THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED ON  

THE 11Z CHART OVER EASTERN WY, WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS  

EASTERN CO AND NORTHEASTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NM. A DRYLINE EXTENDED  

FROM THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO TO EASTERN NM AND THE TX  

TRANS-PECOS REGION, AND SHOULD MIX EASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN KS,  

EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES, AND WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX BY LATE  

AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE  

CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN OVER OK OVERNIGHT. A  

DEVELOPING/SYNOPTIC WARM-FRONTAL ZONE WAS APPARENT FROM SOUTHEASTERN  

WY ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO SOUTHERN MO, AND SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD  

TO THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN  

WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING THE NORTHERN RIM OF A RICHLY MOIST GULF  

AIRMASS FROM OUTFLOW-MODIFIED AIR, WAS DRAWN NEAR THE RED RIVER FROM  

THE ARKLATEX TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  

SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH OK AND MUCH OF KS TODAY WHILE BECOMING  

DIFFUSE, AND POSSIBLY CATCHING UP TO THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT.  

   

..OK, SOUTHERN KS, RED RIVER REGION  

  

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG  

AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE, NEAR THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK  

LINE OR 100W LONGITUDE INTO SOUTHERN KS, THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY TO  

SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. GIVEN THE ALREADY VERY  

FAVORABLE PARAMETER SPACE BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND INCREASINGLY SO  

INTO EARLY/MID EVENING, THE CONCERN IS HIGH FOR AT LEAST A FEW  

CYCLIC, TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PRODUCING MULTIPLE SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES  

ALONG POTENTIALLY LONG PATHS. THE THREAT FOR SUCH TORNADOES, AS  

WELL AS VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL, WILL BE MAINTAINED WELL INTO  

THE LATE EVENING, AND MAY EVEN INCREASE AS HODOGRAPHS FURTHER  

ENLARGE BENEATH THE LLJ. SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS AS TO HOW MANY  

SUCH SUPERCELLS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, BUT GIVEN THE  

UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE, A "HIGH  

RISK" OUTLOOK IS WARRANTED FOR AREAS BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE I-40  

CORRIDOR IN OK AND THE US-54/500 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN KS.  

  

COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH IN KS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE  

SLIGHTLY STRONGER CINH, VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS  

COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F), LACK OF FRONTAL FORCING (MAINLY  

DRYLINE INSTEAD), AND MORE ORTHOGONAL MEAN-WIND/DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS  

RELATIVE TO THE BOUNDARY. THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SAMPLED THE RICHLY  

MOIST AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS  

OK TODAY, WITH MEAN MIXING RATIO OF 15 G/KG. AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE IN  

THE MOIST SECTOR FROM WEST-EAST, DIABATIC HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE  

INTO THE 2500-4000 J/KG RANGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN/  

CENTRAL KS, AND CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE  

SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP AND LAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE POTENTIAL MAJOR  

UPSCALE EVOLUTION TO LINES OR CLUSTERS THIS EVENING.    

  

HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES SOON AFTER INITIATION,  

AND ENLARGE FURTHER AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY WITH TIME. EFFECTIVE SRH  

COMMONLY AROUND 200-300 J/KG IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND  

300-500 J/KG AFTER 00Z, AMIDST STRENGTHENING LLJ AND DEEP SHEAR  

(EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES REACHING 45-60 KT). EFFECTIVE-LAYER STP  

IN THE 5-12 RANGE MAY BE REALIZED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING  

ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND SOUTHERN KS. STRONGER MLCINH AND WEAKER  

LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LESSER STORM COVERAGE WITH  

SOUTHWARD EXTENT OVER SOUTHERN OK, THOUGH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND  

DAMAGING HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY THAT FORM.  

  

THE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL ENLARGE EASTWARD THIS  

EVENING WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ADVECTION, HELPING TO  

MAINTAIN SURFACE-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS WELL EASTWARD INTO  

THE OZARKS AND VICINITY TO MAINTAIN EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH,  

POSSIBLY LINKING WITH THE SOUTHERN PART OF QLCS ACTIVITY SWEEPING  

ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  

   

Edited May 6 by StormfanaticInd