ElectricStorm Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Expanded 10# for Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 I wouldn't call today a bust at all, but I will say i'm very glad it's full potential wasn't realized. We could've had multiple Barnsdall-Bartlesville type tornadoes on the ground at the same time if it had been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 (edited) Discrete supercell west of Wynnewood isn't even close to mature but has very solid rotation already, not a good sign. Things should still be incredibly favorable so i'm watching it close. Let's hope it has trouble maturing further. Edited May 7 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 hour ago, ElectricStorm said: Expanded 10# for Tuesday Won't be shocked if it needs to be expanded a bit farther west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Debris ball and CC drop evident on the OK/AR border. Looks like an embedded supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 7 Meteorologist Share Posted May 7 I'm glad last night didn't quite live up to the potential it could have, but it sucks that more towns got destroyed. I'm worried about all the spacing being shown on the CAMs for today. Not many strong 0-3km UH tracks showing up, but I have to wonder if that's due to storms being too small for the models to depict and not a result of weak convection. The environment will supercells. For Wednesday, it looks like initially it could be very favorable for tornadoes before it becomes a wind event. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a wind driven high risk for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Latest from ILN for today and tonight pretty strong wording there. NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Vigorous low pressure over the northern Plains will lead to a moist southwest flow of air across the Ohio Valley today. A decaying band of showers with isolated thunder is expected to slide east through the region late this morning through early this afternoon. Severe storms are not expected with this band. As a shortwave is ejected northeast from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley, an increase in mid- level flow and backing low- level winds will be seen in the vertical profile by later in the afternoon. A surge in warm, humid air will likely occur just ahead of the shortwave`s arrival. Forecast soundings from the HRRR are concerning, with surface CAPE late this afternoon into the early evening approaching 2,500 J/kg and effective shear reaching around 60 knots. Curved hodographs lead to effective SRH exceeding 200 m^2/s^2. The latest guidance suggests a less forced environment late this afternoon, so scattered, discrete supercells are expected. All hazards appear likely with these storms. High temperatures will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A cold front associated with the shortwave will shift east across the local forecast area late this evening through midnight. While hodographs are a bit less curved for this period, an increase in forcing leads to higher coverage of thunderstorms, and likely a more organized linear mode. Can`t rule out some embedded supercells as well based on persistent bulk shear ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 We’ll see how long it takes to destabilize from the line later. May be too late for anything significant here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 5 minutes ago, junior said: We’ll see how long it takes to destabilize from the line later. May be too late for anything significant here That’s what I was thinking myself. Models show us having no problem destabilizing but we will ultimately see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Indy area is really ramping up warnings on every social platform this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Hazy sunshine starting to poke out. First line of storms starting to break up as they enter the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Visible satellite shows a zone of clearing behind the current activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHValleysnow Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 36 minutes ago, OHValleysnow said: Great info! Just feels like one of those days today. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Risk areas were expanded a little westward on new outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Cincinnati is under a severe warning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted May 7 Moderators Share Posted May 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: I wasn't able to read the updated Day 1 but this seems to fall in line with the NW expansion of the enhanced area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Latest HRRR... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 CAPE recovering pretty well in Southern IL and IN, already approaching 3000-3500 in S IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 Parameters are really high today. Strong tornadoes are definitely possible today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Latest HRRR... Talk about explosive sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 2 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Talk about explosive sheesh The 5-10 p.m. time frame has potential for some serious action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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