Chinook Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said: Not quite sold on a major tornado outbreak Saturday yet. Will probably end up with morning convection and the next wave could end up firing too early. That being said though the setup is there if the morning wave can move out quick enough. Won't know for sure the threat level until the day of. There's a lot of winds at 850mb to 500mb for Saturday. It is pretty far out, but we are definitely going to be looking at high storm-relative helicity values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 this suddenly looks a lot more interesting for storm chasers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 Feeling pretty confident in a strong/severe squall line moving through late tomorrow night/early Friday morning. Could be a few QLCS spin ups with that. The main show on the dryline should stay to the west of me. New Day 1 tornado probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 25 Meteorologist Share Posted April 25 I think the key wording in SPC's latest day 3 is that if the morning convection doesn't limit destabilization, there's potential for multiple rounds of supercells. That's usually a sign for a higher end outlook assuming strong tornadoes are possible for both rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 25 Meteorologist Share Posted April 25 (edited) https://x.com/evan_bentley/status/1783225710942855602 Edited April 25 by Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 Enhanced risk expanded to OKC metro for the overnight line tonight. 10# tornado trimmed to a smaller area in KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Just stopping in to say that the weather hasn't lined up favorably for the traditional Tornado Alley outbreak in quite a while. The fact that the next couple days of weather is lining up with peak tornado climatology across Tornado Alley is extremely concerning to me. Doesn't matter what the spc risk level is, the next few days are the real deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Tornado potential in Iowa looks very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 There is still time for a downtrend of course (and it wouldn't surprise me) but for now I'm starting to think Saturday has High Risk potential for OK/KS as long as morning convection doesn't end up being a problem. Probably the most dangerous setup I've seen for this area since 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 zoom in on the dew point gradient from 62 to 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Here is a cross section look into the dryline with New Mexico on the left and Oklahoma on the right. The RH goes from 10% to maybe 80% from left to right. You can see the thermal environment with the lower potential temperatures with the moist air sector. Then you can see the dry air above the warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 The widespread area under the gun Saturday is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 when you just see a wall cloud, with no tornado, and sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 25 Meteorologist Share Posted April 25 Yeah I'm getting concerned for Saturday if the NAM verifies. We're looking at classic Dixie Alley hodographs with classic Tornado Alley CAPE (4,000 j/kg of MLCAPE possible). Time to start hoping for the morning convection failure mode to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Analogs for Saturday have some huge severe weather days. The first analog has a large number of tornado reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 26 Meteorologist Share Posted April 26 29 minutes ago, Chinook said: Analogs for Saturday have some huge severe weather days. The first analog has a large number of tornado reports. That first analog is the Hesston tornado outbreak. That would scare anyone in south-central Kansas. If you click on the southern box then 4/14/2012 is on this list, another big time outbreak for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. I have also seen 5/29/2004 and 5/24/2011 pop up on the analogs so there have been some historic dates showing up. Also some big time outbreaks outside of those more infamous ones as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 26 Meteorologist Share Posted April 26 29 minutes ago, Chinook said: Analogs for Saturday have some huge severe weather days. The first analog has a large number of tornado reports. That first analog is the Hesston tornado outbreak. That would scare anyone in south-central Kansas. If you click on the southern box then 4/14/2012 is on this list, another big time outbreak for Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. I have also seen 5/29/2004 and 5/24/2011 pop up on the analogs so there have been some historic dates showing up. Also some big time outbreaks outside of those more infamous ones as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 26 Author Share Posted April 26 Interesting how the CIPS analogs weren't ever very high on today and so far they were right with just a couple landspout tornadoes. Seems like the cap and perhaps some dry air aloft preventing a bigger event so far. Seems to be the theme so far this season in the plains, although I do think Saturday could be different. Still on track for an MCS here overnight with QLCS tornadoes possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 26 Meteorologist Share Posted April 26 1 minute ago, ElectricStorm said: Interesting how the CIPS analogs weren't ever very high on today and so far they were right with just a couple landspout tornadoes. Seems like the cap and perhaps some dry air aloft preventing a bigger event so far. Seems to be the theme so far this season in the plains, although I do think Saturday could be different. Still on track for an MCS here overnight with QLCS tornadoes possible. A lot of the analogs were the day before the big events. Sometimes those days can still be bad, but it looked like today would be more of a setup for tomorrow. It could get nasty in southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 26 minutes ago, Ingyball said: A lot of the analogs were the day before the big events. Sometimes those days can still be bad, but it looked like today would be more of a setup for tomorrow. It could get nasty in southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. 00z HRRR is coming out. It still likes isolated (tornadic?) supercells for parts of Iowa and Missouri, as well as maybe some more activity closer to Little Rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 33 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Interesting how the CIPS analogs weren't ever very high on today and so far they were right with just a couple landspout tornadoes. Seems like the cap and perhaps some dry air aloft preventing a bigger event so far. Seems to be the theme so far this season in the plains, although I do think Saturday could be different. Still on track for an MCS here overnight with QLCS tornadoes possible. Heck that's been the plains for several seasons now. Feels like somewhere a switch was flipped and we can't get anything to happen over there. I'm sure those living there aren't complaining though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 1 hour ago, Ingyball said: A lot of the analogs were the day before the big events. Sometimes those days can still be bad, but it looked like today would be more of a setup for tomorrow. It could get nasty in southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri. is it like 10:00AM for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 These are impressive values for 22z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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