Chinook Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 there's gotta be some storm chaser streams seeing strong rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 21 minutes ago, Chinook said: there's gotta be some storm chaser streams seeing strong rotation Confirmed tornado now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 tornado reported near Turkey Texas about an hour ago. You can see the cells interfering with one another, but still, the rotation was there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Suspect rotation near Spearman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 another confirmed tornado by Turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 2 Author Share Posted May 2 80mph line with QLCS circulations might pass just south of me. Looks like I'm gonna be staying up for a bit... In other news the NWS only found EF1 damage from the monster tor yesterday so that's good that it didn't hit much. Probably the strongest EF1 of all time lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 OV will probably need to be in a risk area for Tues and Wednesday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 The GFS and ECMWF agree on a strong surface low pressure somewhere in the northern Plains on Tuesday. (See SPC, Day 5 discussion and graphics.) Both models show a strong upper level trough affecting the significant warm sector/dryline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 41 minutes ago, Chinook said: The GFS and ECMWF agree on a strong surface low pressure somewhere in the northern Plains on Tuesday. (See SPC, Day 5 discussion and graphics.) Both models show a strong upper level trough affecting the significant warm sector/dryline. Tornado outbreak appears very likely next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 15 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: OV will probably need to be in a risk area for Tues and Wednesday ILN appears to agree with this. Quote On Monday...the residual impacts of the southern stream wave moving through KY/TN will likely foster diurnal shower/storms especially south, before that system pushes east as well. A progressive...deep upper trough will be pushing steadily east across the western CONUS on Monday, forcing replacement height rises over the Ohio Valley in the wake of weekend unsettled weather. This system will slow and continue to deepen as it centers over the Dakotas by Tuesday, which places the Ohio Valley in broadly diffluent/southwesterly flow aloft with a wide open Gulf of Mexico- sourced low level jet transporting plenty of warmth/moisture for the middle of next week. While the magnitude of the negative height anomalies trends downward through the week, the trough axis remains intact and maintains a feed of moderate/fast southwesterly flow atop a southerly low level jet well into Thursday. As a result of all of this, ejecting waves out of the trough should focus/funnel through the Ohio Valley along an oscillating frontal boundary draped somewhere nearby. These waves are common in all deterministic/ensemble member runs, but with widely varying latitude and depth. It is noted that CIPS analogs running on the mean GEFS pattern highlights a broad area of potentially daily severe convective threat from the central and lower Mississippi River Valley, into the Ohio Valley Tue-Thur that is mirrored by 02.00Z CSU MLP guidance. GEFS/EPS instability matrices are strongly aligned in this time period offering moderate instability, and plenty of precip chances via waves moving through the area. 02.00Z EPS EFI/SOT graphics paint a corridor of anomalous CAPE/shear overlap for early May through the Ohio Valley, peaking on Wednesday, but timing should taken cautiously at this time range as daily threats will be modulated heavily by low amplitude shortwave tracks and convective overturning in previous days. The pattern - when taken cumulatively - suggest rainfall/flooding issues could be present either with individual MCS episodes, or from repeated rounds of convection as the ridge slowly flattens and low-mid level flow begins to align in a WSW orientation by the end of next week, when an effective frontal should begin to settle south of the area and we cool/dry out perhaps into next weekend. But until then...Tues night-Thursday bears some potential for several rounds of organized storms, some of which could be strong to severe, with locally heavy rain/flooding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 Thsi isolated supercell produced tornadoes near Anson and Hawley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Looks potent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 possible 1" - 3" hail and tornado at Abilene 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted May 3 Meteorologist Share Posted May 3 Timing will be everything, especially Monday, but this does appear to be another widespread outbreak early next week with a pattern reload at the end of next week. Busy times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 Quote Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON... ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day period of organized severe thunderstorm potential appears likely across parts of the central to eastern CONUS next week, beginning on Day 4/Monday across the Plains, and continuing through at least Day 6/Wednesday. ...Day 4/Monday... A negatively tilted upper trough will eject northeastward over the northern/central Plains on Monday. Pronounced low-level mass response will encourage rich low-level moisture to advect northward over the southern/central Plains, as a surface low rapidly deepens over the northern High Plains. Strong deep-layer shear and at least moderate instability are expected to be in place ahead of a surface dryline extending across the southern/central Plains. Thunderstorms will likely erupt along the length of the dryline by late Monday afternoon from southern NE into central KS and north-central OK. Supercells are likely to be the dominant mode initially given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Both very large hail and tornadoes will be possible with these supercells as they spread eastward across the southern/central Plains through Monday evening. With a southerly low-level jet forecast to strengthen to at least 50-60 kt Saturday evening, a corresponding rapid increase in low-level shear will likely support a continued threat for tornadoes with any discrete convection. Some of these tornadoes could be strong. The severe threat will likely continue Monday night with eastward extent across the Plains, before convection possibly weakens some towards early Tuesday morning. Given increased confidence in high-end severe potential, a 30% severe area has been introduced from parts of southern NE into central KS and north-central OK. ...Day 5/Tuesday... The large-scale upper trough/low is forecast to gradually occlude over the northern Plains on Tuesday. But, an enhanced mid-level jet and embedded vorticity maximum will likely overspread parts of the Upper Midwest, mid MS Valley, and OH Valley through Tuesday evening. An expansive warm sector will likely be in place across these regions ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Robust convection should develop along/ahead of these boundaries through the day. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will likely exist to support organized severe thunderstorms, including supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards. The northeastward extent of the warm sector remains somewhat uncertain into the OH Valley. Still, some severe risk will probably persist into Tuesday evening/night with eastward extent across the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley/Midwest. Expansion of the 15% severe area may be needed in later outlooks, pending better model agreement and increased confidence in the eastward extent of rich low-level moisture and related instability. ...Day 6/Wednesday... The upper trough/low should gradually evolve eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday. While there are still some differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of an embedded shortwave trough, there appears to be enough agreement in the synoptic pattern to include a 15% severe delineation for Wednesday for parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks and towards the mid MS Valley. Across these areas, strong instability is forecast to develop east of a front/dryline. With enhanced mid-level flow persisting with a westerly mid/upper-level jet, organized severe thunderstorms should once again develop Wednesday afternoon. Supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards may occur. The northern/eastern extent of the severe threat is unclear, as the convection from Tuesday may tend to limit better low-level moisture return into the OH/TN Valleys. Depending on model trends over the next few days, the 15% severe area may need to be expanded to include these regions. ...Day 7/Thursday and Day 8/Friday... Some severe threat may continue on Thursday from parts of TX into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, generally along/south of a front and any convection that develops Wednesday. Too much uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area at this time, but trends will be monitored. A severe risk also appears possible next Friday across the same general regions, but confidence in the placement of the front and convection is even lower than Thursday. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 5/10/10 😳 Although C OK could end up being too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 😳 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted May 3 Admin Share Posted May 3 1 hour ago, OxfordOh_ said: 😳 That's worrisome that it's already so high in the Day 4-6 range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 1 hour ago, BuckeyeGal said: That's worrisome that it's already so high in the Day 4-6 range. I know I wasn’t expecting it this far out but 2024 has been quite the year so far. Definitely something to watch! It’s been quite here in the Ohio valley recently… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 Definitely watching next week's severe potential with interest as it looks like it will offer a chance of severe wx farther east than the big outbreak in the Plains in late April. On another note, I've been having a lot of issues with the forum "jumping" rapidly on my phone, especially on the main page/forum index but also in the forums at times. Makes it difficult to use. Anyone else having any problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Definitely watching next week's severe potential with interest as it looks like it will offer a chance of severe wx farther east than the big outbreak in the Plains in late April. On another note, I've been having a lot of issues with the forum "jumping" rapidly on my phone, especially on the main page/forum index but also in the forums at times. Makes it difficult to use. Anyone else having any problem? I've had this problem before for a day or so and it just went away from what I remember. Not entirely sure what was causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 Mean looking supercell southwest of Abilene, nearing Robert Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 2 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Mean looking supercell southwest of Abilene, nearing Robert Lee. PDS warned. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service San Angelo TX 356 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 TXC081-032130- /O.COR.KSJT.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-240503T2130Z/ Coke TX- 356 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN COKE COUNTY... At 356 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Silver, moving south at 15 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... E.V. Spence Reservoir Near Paint Creek Recreation Area and Silver. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3208 10070 3208 10063 3199 10050 3187 10059 3199 10079 3209 10071 TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 022DEG 14KT 3201 10070 TORNADO...OBSERVED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted May 3 Share Posted May 3 Another monster tornado producing supercell. This thing looks absolutely mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.d854dd115fa9dfd0656f7d1835c449ce.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now