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April 23-May 5, 2024 | Multi-Day Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak


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Quote
   Mesoscale Discussion 0544
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

   Areas affected...Western north TX and southwest OK

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 146...

   Valid 272019Z - 272145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 146 continues.

   SUMMARY...Pair of potentially long-lived supercells within the
   southern portion of WW 146 may evolve with an intense tornado and
   very large hail threat.

   DISCUSSION...A potentially long-lived, slow-moving discrete
   supercell is centered over Knox County, TX. This supercell appears
   to be anchored along the far southern portion of the broader
   convective plume that extends north across OK/KS. With full
   insolation in the warm-moist sector inflow to its southeast, its
   plausible that a long-lived supercell will persist for the next 2-3
   hours. Amid MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg and mid 60s surface dew points to
   its southeast, a cyclic tornadic supercell could evolve beyond the
   very large hail threat with up to baseballs reported thus far. The
   supercell to its northeast in Wilbarger County, TX will also have
   potential to further intensify as it spreads towards and northwest
   of the Wichita Falls vicinity, given 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 per
   FDR VWP data.

   ..Grams.. 04/27/2024

 

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Still thick cloud cover here I wonder if that's helping to prevent convection in C OK. Don't want to speak too early but I'm not very concerned right now in Norman. Still have a few hours to go though. 

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  • Meteorologist

RRFS has done pretty well with today so far. Reports line up with where the UH tracks were appearing through 00z on previous runs. The question is how tornadic is the line that moves into central and eastern Oklahoma tonight?  Any embedded supercells could be especially dangerous.

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 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 152
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   750 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Southern, Central, and Northeast Oklahoma
     Northwest Texas

   * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 750 PM
     until 300 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Bands of severe storms, including embedded supercells,
   will continue through the evening as a low-level jet intensifies
   across the Watch area.  A very moist and strongly sheared
   environment will support the threat for tornadoes, potentially
   strong, and large hail and severe gusts into the overnight.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Grove OK to 120
   miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...WW
   148...WW 149...WW 150...WW 151...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.

   ...Smith
Quote

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

Mod (40%)

Wind

 

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (10%)

Hail

 

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

 

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

 

ww0152_radar.gif

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2 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

Still thick cloud cover here I wonder if that's helping to prevent convection in C OK. Don't want to speak too early but I'm not very concerned right now in Norman. Still have a few hours to go though. 

Don't ever listen to this idiot lmao 

Screenshot_20240427-195718.thumb.png.13fedea13fa14a7c5d97c24635ad5417.png

  • THINKING 1
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