StLweatherjunkie Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 (edited) 6 hours ago, Ingyball said: I targeted northern Kansas/southern Nebraska for our severe challenge for that reason. And yeah, I like the positioning of the CIPS in this case. The SPC forecasts have been a bit too far east through this pattern. Edit: I will say that I think that there is some balance between pure AI and pure human generation. I think having some human tweaking of AI generation is a good middle ground and prevents moderate or high risk spam when parameters are impressive but a stout cap is present. CIPS and CSU can catch onto that on day 1 and 2, but beyond day 2, they sometimes overdo those outlooks, like 4/15 for example. There are ways to reign in the longer range AI spam, and I'd go further to say there needs to be a balance between NWP, AI, and humans. However, I don't think humans should make the first draft because of their inherent biases. I find the SPC humans deeply frustrating since they NEED to be more aggressive in days like today. They dole out slight risks like they're hotcakes that exaggerate the extent of smaller threats, but they are so guarded about high risk days that they don't raise the alarm as often as they should. Again 13/15 (87%) of the top analogs SHOULD have been high risk days based on LSRs. In real life, the SPC only issued high risks on just ONE of these days. Obviously I have the enormous benefit of hindsight, but we've been monitoring a favorable weather pattern over the climatologically favored area at the peak of the season for several days now. What more do they need to know before pulling the trigger? Edited April 27 by StLweatherjunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 👀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 2 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: There are ways to reign in the longer range AI spam, and I'd go further to say there needs to be a balance between NWP, AI, and humans. However, I find the SPC humans deeply frustrating since they need to be more aggressive in days like today. They dole out slight risks like they're hotcakes that exaggerate the extent of smaller threats, but they are so guarded about high risk days that they don't raise the alarm as often as they should. Again 13/15 (87%) of the top analogs SHOULD have been high risk days based on LSRs. In real life, the SPC only issued high risks on just ONE of these days. Obviously I have the enormous benefit of hindsight, but we've been monitoring a favorable weather pattern over the climatologically favored area at the peak of the season for several days now. What more do they need to know before pulling the trigger? Yeah I agree entirely. Had we had more robust morning convection I wouldn't have pulled the trigger either. Given the current environment after very few storms this morning, the last day 1 should've been a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: Yeah I agree entirely. Had we had more robust morning convection I wouldn't have pulled the trigger either. Given the current environment after very few storms this morning, the last day 1 should've been a high risk. Still have the 20z update and I can understand lingering concerns about storm mode but considering there's already discrete cells developing, I'd go ahead and pull the trigger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 (edited) 9 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Still have the 20z update and I can understand lingering concerns about storm mode but considering there's already discrete cells developing, I'd go ahead and pull the trigger Do you think high risks are justified for hail and wind threats or only tornadoes? EDIT 1: I think SPC culture is to only issue high risks for tornadoes, but their own verification criteria shoot them in the foot for other hazards. Again, I know hindsight is 20-20 but now that we can look at LSRs ... was there a high risk of large hail in western KS two days ago? Practically every location within that mesoscale area got large hail so I'd say yes there was a high risk for large hail in that area with a marginal risk everywhere else. EDIT 2: Of course the case can be made that hail is much less likely to be a deadly hazard, but it is incredibly economically damaging. Not sure much could be done to prevent damage even with a perfect forecast, but still by their own verification criteria ... yes, there could be a high risk for large hail. Edited April 27 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 Just now, StLweatherjunkie said: Do you think high risks are justified for hail and wind threats or only tornadoes? Wind threat yes and there's been a couple 45# wind days that I think should have been 60# high risks (like the August 2020 derecho) but it can be hard to know just how strong an MCS will be so I can understand the lack of wind driven highs in the last decade. Hail threat by itself probably not but it seems like a lot of big hail days have decent tornado probs as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 PDS watch up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Quote SEL6 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along and east of a dryline over western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Supercells are expected, capable of very large hail and damaging winds. The most intense cells may also produce strong or potentially long-tracked tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Alva OK to 45 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 6 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Wind threat yes and there's been a couple 45# wind days that I think should have been 60# high risks (like the August 2020 derecho) but it can be hard to know just how strong an MCS will be so I can understand the lack of wind driven highs in the last decade. Hail threat by itself probably not but it seems like a lot of big hail days have decent tornado probs as well Sorry for all the edits to my original post, but the point remains that LSRs vs SPC criteria suggest higher-end risk days should be more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 25 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: 👀 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Maturing supercell on the warmfront is about to undergo a couple storm mergers, yesterday was full of favorable interactions so we'll see if today is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 The HRRR has failed to pick up this cell. If it can sustain itself it could be a big issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 2 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Maturing supercell on the warmfront is about to undergo a couple storm mergers, yesterday was full of favorable interactions so we'll see if today is the same. Tor warned and CC drop on that now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 Bruh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Brief cc drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Still working through mergers but the warm front supercell in KS is looking much more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 PDS watch extended east and now includes OKC metro. This is now the first PDS watch I've been in since 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 This cell appears to be interacting with an outflow boundary. Could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Iowa Northeast Kansas Northern Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon along a surface boundary lying across northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are possible, along with a few tornadoes in the strongest cells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Saint Joseph MO to 30 miles south of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...WW 146... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Quote Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Mod (40%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (60%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 PDS warning near the OK/KS border, although rotation looks pretty broad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0543 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Areas affected...Northeast OK and southeast KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 145...146... Valid 271854Z - 272030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 145, 146 continues. SUMMARY...As severe storms in north-central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas spread east late this afternoon, an additional tornado watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The airmass ahead of severe storms in south-central KS and north-central OK continues to destabilize as surface temps have warmed in the upper 70s to low 80s across most of eastern OK into far southeast KS. While low-level shear within this part of the warm-moist sector is relatively modest per INX VWP data, it will strengthen based on upstream TLX data. A mix of discrete and semi-discrete supercells occasionally embedded within clusters should spread east-northeast through late afternoon. As this occurs, all severe hazards will be possible, some of which may be significant. ..Grams.. 04/27/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Moderate risk remains on latest day 1 update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 27 Author Share Posted April 27 Long way from the radar but dang... PDS warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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