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April 6-19, 2024 | Severe Weather


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1 hour ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Ohio is the place to be this year I guess. Remarkable statistics thus far. Perhaps we’re getting it out of the way now so when our actual severe season comes it’ll be quiet. 

But with a strong Nino transitioning to neutral to La Niña, I think we’re in a most unstable season compared to the previous years.

seems like the SPC outlooks have been a dud for all the times when tornadoes couldn't hit my brother or sister. And then there's today, when there was a warning near my sister, again.

Edited by Chinook
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9 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

Sneaky enhanced for my region tomorrow, looks to be a mostly wind-driven risk, tornado probs are still a respectable 5% though. 

image.thumb.png.fc7577b3eb550915eb041abf8256cc14.png

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Haven’t looked at anything this morning. From the writeup yesterday, they were saying the tornado risk was driven from possibility of QLCS tornados within the line. Quite the active pattern over the last few weeks. 

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  • The title was changed to April 6-19, 2024 | Severe Weather

After today looks like an overall lull in severe weather for about a week or so, but models are hinting at a potential system late next week. Still way too far out so it's just something to watch for now. 

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We are getting quite the downpour here in St. Louis— although as I write this, it is slowing down. Still, it beats Tuesday evening’s yawner of a shower. Skies have that foreboding dark gray look to them, and I will be keeping my ears ready for hail.

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Quote
  Mesoscale Discussion 0488
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast MO into southern IL...extreme southwest
   IN...and western KY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125...

   Valid 182312Z - 190045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 125
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind, along with an
   embedded tornado or two, will spread quickly eastward this evening.
   Eventual downstream watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms moving across
   east-central/southeast MO into southwest IL has shown signs of
   accelerating eastward early this evening, as new cells have merged
   into the line near/north of the St. Louis area. Increasing outbound
   velocities have been noted from the KLSX radar, and damaging wind
   gusts of 60-75 mph may become an increasing threat through the
   evening as the line of storms moves quickly eastward into a region
   where modestly strong heating occurred this afternoon. Meanwhile,
   moderate instability will continue to support a hail threat with any
   embedded supercells. A modest increase in low-level flow/shear is
   expected ahead of the line this evening into south-central/southeast
   IL and southwest IN, which will support a threat of an tornado or
   two, both with any embedded supercells, and also with stronger QLCS
   mesovortices. 

   The line of storms will likely approach the edge of WW 125 between
   00-01Z, with downstream watch issuance likely into parts of
   southeast IL and southwest IN.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/18/2024

 

mcd0488.png

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3 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

After today looks like an overall lull in severe weather for about a week or so, but models are hinting at a potential system late next week. Still way too far out so it's just something to watch for now. 

Thank god. This past month has been a whirlwind.

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