April 6-19, 2024 | Severe Weather

[ElectricStorm]

Confirmed tornado in S MS 

[snowlover2]

There’s now an enhanced area for tornadoes in east OH for tomorrow.

[StormfanaticInd]

Enhance risk for tornadoes tomorrow 

[BuckeyeGal]

Quote

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
   KENTUCKY ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
   PENNSYLVANIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes, scattered damaging winds,
   and isolated large hail are likely from northern Kentucky across
   Ohio Thursday afternoon. Scattered damaging winds and a couple
   tornadoes will also be possible across southeast Georgia into
   northern Florida, mainly from Thursday morning through early
   afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough moving across the Southeast will phase with an
   upper MS Valley wave, becoming an elongated, negative-tilt trough
   late in the day from MN to GA. A meridional 80+ kt midlevel speed
   max will precede the southern wave, ejecting northeastward toward
   the Mid Atlantic during the evening.

   At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves from TN toward
   Lake Erie by 00Z, with a cold front extending southward. Well ahead
   of the cold front, a expansive warm-conveyor will exist from
   northern FL/GA northward across the Mid Atlantic, ahead of an
   advancing dry slot. Substantial midlevel moistening will lead to
   clouds and precipitation, which may tend to limit destabilization
   over parts of the southeast.

   Farther north toward OH, a secondary area of instability will
   develop, owing to steep lapse rates and better heating. Strong
   overall synoptic-scale lift here should result in an area of severe
   storms near the surface low.

   ...KY...OH...WV...
   Early day precipitation is expected from northern KY into OH due to
   50 kt southerly winds at 850 mb bring moisture northward across an
   initially cool air mass. Shortly after, strong heating is forecast
   over much of eastern TN and KY, with boundary layer mixing and
   steepening low-level lapse rates spreading north across OH and
   western WV. The cold front will initially be slow moving, allowing a
   prolonged warm sector. Cells are likely to develop by early
   afternoon across KY and eastern IN, developing northeastward across
   OH, WV, and eventually western PA. Forecast hodographs along with
   sufficient instability support a supercell risk as instability
   increases from the south, with effective SRH > 200 m2/s2. While
   neither instability nor shear will be particularly strong, the
   synoptic setup with deepening surface low and enhanced low-level
   shear near the theta-e surge will likely favor several cells capable
   of producing tornadoes. In addition, strong deep-layer wind speeds
   will support fast moving cells or even bowing structures, with
   damaging gusts possible.

 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

For as busy as Ohio seems to be this year, the risk areas have been impeccable in missing my neck of the woods. 

[Hassaywx1223]

Well I’m in that enhanced risk tomorrow let’s see if this one doesn’t bust like last week 

[ElectricStorm]

33 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

Well I’m in that enhanced risk tomorrow let’s see if this one doesn’t bust like last week 

That event produced over 70 tornadoes, definitely not a bust... 

Sure, there weren't any violent long trackers but it was still quite the outbreak 

[Hassaywx1223]

13 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

That event produced over 70 tornadoes, definitely not a bust... 

Sure, there weren't any violent long trackers but it was still quite the outbreak 

The moderate risk busted in much of Ohio is what I’m referring to. Not the whole event we didn’t have a moderate risk in almost a decade 

[ElectricStorm]

 

 

[ElectricStorm]

The 12z Euro run is absurd. Storms would probably be moving extremely quickly but that is a very high end scenario on this run. GFS is a little slower so not quite as favorable but still would likely be a significant event. We'll see which one ends up winning out. I typically lean toward the lesser solution at this range, however this one seems different, with the lesser GFS solution being a bit of an outlier for now. Could get real interesting 

[Hassaywx1223]

8 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

The 12z Euro run is absurd. Storms would probably be moving extremely quickly but that is a very high end scenario on this run. GFS is a little slower so not quite as favorable but still would likely be a significant event. We'll see which one ends up winning out. I typically lean toward the lesser solution at this range, however this one seems different, with the lesser GFS solution being a bit of an outlier for now. Could get real interesting 

Can I see the euro? 

[StormfanaticInd]

Next sounds like May from KIND

This Weekend into Next Week...

 

An extended period of well above average temperatures and storm

chances arrives this weekend and persists into next week. Ridging at

the surface and aloft will expand into the Ohio Valley for the

weekend. Ridge axis remains over the Plains through Monday placing

Indiana with an upper level northwesterly flow pattern. Longer range

guidance does show the potential for waves of energy within the NW

flow to bring storm chances Late Sunday night and then again on

Monday night. This is a classic late Spring to early summertime

pattern with southerly flow and a warm, humid airmass at the surface

with waves of energy flowing NW to SE along the jet. Unfortunately,

guidance does not handle the smaller details such as timing and

placement of these waves of energy very well. While high confidence

exists in well above average temperatures in the 70s (and maybe

80s!) next week, lower confidence exists on storm track, timing, and

location. Will have to watch where the upper level storm track sets

up, which will determine where these potential clusters of storms

set up and track. Some guidance has these storm clusters pushing

into Indiana, while others keep the storms further north. For now

keeping only 20-30 POPs in the Sunday - Monday forecast and will

adjust up or down in future forecast packages as timing and location

become clearer. This will not be a wash out type event, so expect

most of these days to remain dry before and after the storms. Not

ruling out the threat for a strong to potentially severe storm

associated with these thunderstorm complexes.

 

Upper ridging shifts eastward mid week with numerous stronger storm

systems moving through the Plains. This places Indiana within a

warm, southwest flow pattern within the warm sector of storm systems

to the west. While much warmer, above normal temperatures continue,

the threat for more storms remains in the forecast. At the moment,

the current storm track looks to remain west of the Ohio Valley

midweek as dying frontal systems and associated storms push into the

region. There are some hints in the guidance that the storm track

does move further east over the Ohio Valley by late week bringing

more frequent and widespread chances for rain and storms, but

confidence this far out on details remains low.

 

For now, high confidence exists in a much warmer weather pattern

with periodic to daily chances for storms. Do not expect any

particular day to be a washout this weekend into the first half of

next week; however will keep a close eye on the weather pattern

later next week for potential repeated rounds of heavy rain and

storms. Lower confidence exists with timing and placement of daily

threats for storms. It is too early to talk about the severe or

flooding threat with storms mid to late next week, however not

ruling out the possibility.

[ElectricStorm]

4 hours ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

Can I see the euro? 

Here's the 12z run. Unfortunately soundings and some other maps like CAPE are only on premium but here's dews and upper level winds.

18z GFS for comparison: 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

46 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

Here's the 12z run. Unfortunately soundings and some other maps like CAPE are only on premium but here's dews and upper level winds.

18z GFS for comparison: 

 

Yeah that Euro run is ridiculous for the eastern TX Panhandle. Potential is certainly there for somewhere between Amarillo to Norman, but still 5 days out... plenty can still change. That's not even to mention the uncertainty about how far east the dryline mixes. 

I believe this sounding is from the vicinity of NE TX Panhandle/NW OK

 

 

Edited April 11 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

   Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Significant severe weather episode possible late afternoon and
   evening on Monday...
   A mid/upper low over the central CA vicinity at 12Z Sunday should
   evolve into an open wave as it ejects across the Southwest and into
   the central Great Plains by around Tuesday morning. As it crosses
   the Rockies onto the High Plains, the tropospheric flow field will
   amplify with substantial lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains
   on Monday afternoon. While a moderate amount of spread persists
   across respective ensemble systems, 00Z deterministic runs have
   converged towards greater agreement with the aforementioned scenario
   through D5, with progressively lower predictability in D6-8. 

   With about 3 days of persistent low-level moisture modification from
   the western Gulf beneath an extensive elevated mixed layer, the
   northern extent of mid 60s surface dew points should reach into most
   of OK east of the dryline by Monday afternoon. Late afternoon
   thunderstorm initiation along the dryline appears probable in the
   eastern TX Panhandle/western north TX to western OK vicinity, within
   a kinematic and thermodynamic profile favorable for strong
   supercells. Convective development will blossom both south and
   especially north extent during the evening across the central and
   southern Great Plains. For this outlook, have expanded the 30
   percent area to highlight the greater spatial confidence in a
   substantial severe weather episode.

 

[BuckeyeGal]

The tornado risk for today seems to have shifted much further East/South (not seeing much threat to most of our subforum area).. guessing because of all-day rain.

[ElectricStorm]

Lots of rain in the enhanced risk area, not expecting much tornado activity up there today. 

[OxfordOh_]

Florida wedge sheesh

[ElectricStorm]

I don't really understand the new outlook, I really don't see much happening in the 10%. On the other hand, the 2% in NC is starting to look a little more favorable and I would have liked to have seen an upgrade there. 

But I'm not a pro for a reason lol so I'm sure they're seeing something I'm not 

[Neoncyclone]

1 hour ago, OxfordOh_ said:

Florida wedge sheesh

Man, I was looking at soundings of Florida last night and just knew it'd go big, it deserved the 10% in my opinion. Here's a sounding from 06z HRRR

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Ingyball]

Well it's been a while. I moved to Guam in January and didn't get my computer from overseas shipping until February. Since then it's just been adjusting, visiting the Philippines to meet my fiancée's family and then my fiancée moving in with me.  Anyways, right now Monday looks like the real deal. The way the trough intersects the warm sector is a classic violent tornado outbreak setup based on my former co-worker's research. Add the potential for a 100kt speed max to go with that as well and yeesh. Will be watching it pretty closely since I'm participating in the NWS's severe challenge again (and I'm off to a rough start).

[Ingyball]

Yup, that's a Hall of Fame CIPS analog list right there lol 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Yup, that's a Hall of Fame CIPS analog list right there lol 

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm getting more impressed with Tuesday's setup.