ElectricStorm Posted April 15 Author Share Posted April 15 High ceiling but low floor kind of day. May not be a lot of storms but the ones that do form could be significant tornado producers, especially in KS and NE. Significant cloud cover here in OK so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 (edited) 03z in the OK panhandle.. Moisture quality doesn't look like an issue at all today, and the cap looks breakable to me, gonna be boom or bust for the panhandle Edited April 15 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 (edited) Well - first light revealed the carnage that was our last nights storm. Look like I took a hit from a damned bomb - stuff scattered everywhere. Even old timey completely iron lawn chairs - tossed aside some 5 yards from where they had been. Those chairs never move in any normal level winds. Then, the old "tin" roofed pavilion. Nearly a full third of the roof panels had been lifted and, go figure - 75 year old annular nails could not hold the ancient oak framing. I spent nearly the entire day refastening with grommeted ringed nails. Some of my local weather followers are asking me if we had a "nado" last night. I'm telling them no - but it's hard to convince some of them. Edited April 15 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 And, once again, the Mid Atl is "stealing the show" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 (edited) DISCUSSION...As of 2355 UTC, regional radar showed multiple clusters of storms, and occasional supercell structures, ongoing across parts of central and eastern VA. The environment ahead of these clusters remains broadly favorable for damaging winds and hail given 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt of effective shear. Recent hi-res guidance suggest the ongoing clusters will continue to track east/southeast this with gradual upscale growth. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely hazard with storm interactions and relatively modest boundary-layer moisture present over parts of eastern VA. However, severe hail should still remain possible, especially with any supercellular elements, given robust mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. The strongest activity should remain focused over the southern half of the Watch area, though more isolated development will remain possible on trailing outflow and over the higher terrain in western VA/WV through the next few hours. Edited April 15 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: DISCUSSION...As of 2355 UTC, regional radar showed multiple clusters of storms, and occasional supercell structures, ongoing across parts of central and eastern VA. The environment ahead of these clusters remains broadly favorable for damaging winds and hail given 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-40 kt of effective shear. Recent hi-res guidance suggest the ongoing clusters will continue to track east/southeast this with gradual upscale growth. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely hazard with storm interactions and relatively modest boundary-layer moisture present over parts of eastern VA. However, severe hail should still remain possible, especially with any supercellular elements, given robust mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km. The strongest activity should remain focused over the southern half of the Watch area, though more isolated development will remain possible on trailing outflow and over the higher terrain in western VA/WV through the next few hours. It was those "damaging gusts" what got us last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 16 Author Share Posted April 16 Well so far the cap is winning for the most part. We'll see if anything can get going after sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 16 Author Share Posted April 16 New tornado watch up now. Decent probs with 60/40. Strong tornado threat for any cells that can sustain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 16 Meteorologist Share Posted April 16 Storms are finally developing in the eastern panhandles/western Oklahoma. The environment... whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 16 Author Share Posted April 16 Confirmed warning, first tornado warning I've seen all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 16 Meteorologist Share Posted April 16 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Storms are finally developing in the eastern panhandles/western Oklahoma. The environment... whew. Whatever that was, failed to be sustained. Guess it's not surprising given this mid-level profile was being advected into the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted April 16 Moderators Share Posted April 16 Absolute dud here when it comes to severe weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 16 Author Share Posted April 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 16 Author Share Posted April 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 IDK if I've ever seen OHIO having had the largest number of tornadoes this year (to date) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 3 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: IDK if I've ever seen OHIO having had the largest number of tornadoes this year (to date) Ohio is have quite the year so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Parameters are pretty good right now for severe weather today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 (edited) 33 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Parameters are pretty good right now for severe weather today I feel like I’m the only person in Ohio that’s watching this lol… maybe I’m missing something. Edited April 17 by cperry29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 44 minutes ago, cperry29 said: I feel like I’m the only person in Ohio that’s watching this lol… maybe I’m missing something. I've been paying attention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 2 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: 95% probability. Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern IN into central OH Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 171550Z - 171715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase over the next 1-2 hours across parts of eastern Indiana into western Ohio. All severe hazards will be possible and a tornado watch will likely be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Heating into the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints in the low 60s is resulting in modest instability (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support organized convection, with supercells and some small line segments possible. Damaging gusts to 65 mph and large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter will be possible with this activity. Additionally, some backing of low-level flow is possible, especially into parts of Ohio this afternoon. Forecast and regional VWP data indicates enlarged low-level hodographs. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing 0-3 km MLCAPE with time amid favorable low-level shear will support tornado potential in addition to the wind/hail risk. A tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour. ..Leitman/Mosier.. 04/17/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Medina Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 I'm hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: 95% probability. Extremely high parameters! Here in Warren county it’s hit or miss if anything develops we will see I’ll be watching closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: I've been paying attention. Yeah...me too. Feels like a sneaky one that could catch some folks off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.d854dd115fa9dfd0656f7d1835c449ce.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now