April 2-5, 2024 | NE/Mid-Atl "Springter" Nor'Easter

[LUCC]

Awfully close to CNJ seeing some flakes flying on 12z NAM 12k!

[Lazman]

Avalanche Watch in effect. How rare is that? 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Just over 2.20" btwn yesterday and today. Some guidance has another 2+" on tap for tomorrow. It'll be a bit muddy around here for a while. 

[TLChip]

1 hour ago, Lazman said:

Avalanche Watch in effect. How rare is that? 

They had one about a week ago iirc last big storm.

I’ve seen the warning signs at trailheads with avy risks but only this year I saw the NWS alerts.

Edited April 2 by TLChip

[MaineJay]

Gorgeous day up here. Mid -upper 50s with mostly sunny skies. Might be a nice sunset this evening.

[buxtonian]

My snowfall contest. Whose forecast will be closet to reality for the 4/3-4/6 storm. Here are the current forecasts for Buxton, Maine:

Accuweather  5 -9"

TWC 6 -10"

NWS 11 - 19"

Edited April 2 by buxtonian

[StretchCT]

Winds are going to be a problem, again, in the Upton area

Model winds have increased over the past few runs and have bumped
forecast winds up. Both the 12z NAM and GFS show 65 to 75 kt at
925mb. Bufkit soundings show no real inversion in place with mean
boundary layer winds around 50 kt at several coastal locations. Have
issued a High Wind Watch for all of Long Island, NYC, coastal CT and
southern Westchester and Hudson Counties. In these areas, expecting
a period from mainly Wednesday afternoon through the first half of
Wednesday night where wind gusts could potentially reach 60 mph.
Elsewhere (except Orange County and Western Passaic County) have
issued a Wind Advisory for 45 to 50 mph wind gusts.

Wind Advisory per below. 

 

CTZ005>008-NJZ004-103>108-NYZ068>070-031000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WI.Y.0007.240403T1500Z-240404T0900Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern
New London-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western
Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
320 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey,
  and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

I can't imagine strong easterlies over a couple of days will be good for the beaches. Coastal flood warnings are out for most of the area.  Inundation is expected between 1 and 4 feet depending on location with the Peconic river taking on major flooding.  Moderate flooding elsewhere.  LI Sound will have breaking waves 3-7 feet in Fairfield County, which is pretty high. 6-10 ft breaking on shore on LI. 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Edited April 2 by Undertakerson2.0

[TheRex]

BTV's updated map.  Looks like they bumped up totals a bit.  What is interesting, it doesn't show the peaks of the Green Mountains with higher totals than the surrounding areas.  Usually there is a stripe of heavier accumulation running down the middle of the Green Mountains.  Looks like the Adirondacks will do well.

Quote

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Looks like maybe Sullivan County in NY could see a few inches out of this event?

[jbrumberg]

Snow is starting to mix in with the rain as the precursor event tonight and more wintry weather is on the horizon for tomorrow into Thursday.  I am happy that the 🚜 is refueled and running.  Usually this inside the "benchmark" track results is some decent snow events for this area  From the NWS/B-N Office:

Spoiler

Tonight...

Strong closed upper level energy across the midwest this afternoon
will slowly drop southeast tonight. The main surface low pressure
system will lift northward in the vicinity of Lake Michigan. Some
lead shortwave energy will run into left over ridging and a low
level dry ENE push. Therefore...our thinking is that some showers
will impact the interior mainly this evening. Any wet snow will be
confined to the highest terrain along the east slopes of the
Berks...mainly near and above 1500 feet and will not amount to much
tonight. Meanwhile across eastern MA...probably nothing more than a
few sprinkles/light showers from a mid level cloud deck this
evening. Most of the showers across the interior should come to an
end overnight. This a result of temporary dry air advecting in from
the east northeast. Overnight low temps will generally be in the
middle to upper 30s.

Wednesday...

Low pressure over the midwest will begin to transfer energy towards
the mid-Atlantic coast and also intensify on Wed. The result will be
an intensifying easterly LLJ and a gradual increase in
ascent/forcing from west to east as the day wears along. In
response...we should see light precipitation overspread much of the
interior Wed morning into the early afternoon. Model cross sections
indicate some low level dry air hanging tough across eastern New
England. This will delay the arrival of the steady precipitation. So
probably nothing more than a few showers along the coastal plain
into early afternoon with the steadier precipitation arriving later
in the afternoon and especially during the evening.

The initial low pressure system over the Great Lakes will allow for
a substantial warm layer to invade around 750 mb. However...800 to
850 mb temps are quite a bit colder and will drop to between -4C and
-6C with some lingering low level dry air/evaporative cooling on ENE
low level flow. This will result in sleet across the high terrain of
the Worcester Hills and Berks. In addition...even areas of the lower
elevations north of the CT/RI border will see sleet and rain mixed
on Wed. However...surface temps will be above freezing so not
expecting travel issues on Wed in the lower elevations.
However...some slippery travel may develop in the higher terrain
especially by evening with sleet falling and temps near freezing.

High temps on Wed will mainly be in the lower to middle 40s...but
with temps falling into the 30s once the steady rain and sleet
arrives. Winds will also begin to ramp up  with 35 to 55 mph gusts
developing by evening along the coastal plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points...

* Locally heavy wet snow over the Berkshires and northern Worcester
  Hills could result in power outages and impact the Thu morning
  commute

* Strong to damaging wind gusts along the coast Wed night into Thu
  morning

* Heavy rain with renewed flooding concerns for RI and SE MA rivers

* Minor coastal flooding possible along the south and east coasts,
  with pockets of moderate flooding along the east coast of MA

The brunt of this anomalous early spring storm occurs Wed night into
Thu morning. Phasing of northern and southern stream energy leads to
a deep mid level low across the Gt Lakes. Strong shortwave rotating
around the main low center will develop a secondary mid level center
as it tracks across New Eng on Thu with impressive height falls
around 200M in 12 hours promoting rapid deepening of coastal low
pres as it tracks to the SNE coast Thu. PWAT anomalies are not
overly impressive, about 1-2SD above normal. But what this system
lacks in anomalous moisture will be made up by impressive synoptic
forcing for ascent from the shortwave and a highly anomalous
easterly low level jet which will serve to bring heavy precipitation
to SNE. Impacts from this storm will be heavy wet snow over the
higher elevations, damaging wind along the coast, minor to moderate
coastal flooding and heavy rain with renewed river flooding concerns
in RI and SE MA. Winter storm watches were expanded to Worcester
Hills. Will break down more below.

Ptype and heavy snow...

Warm nose aloft with the peak around 750 mb combined with deep low
level cold air will result in lots of sleet which will continue into
the evening across the higher elevations, with rain/sleet mix down
to the MA Pike region. It is possible there could be an inch or so
of sleet accum from Wed into Wed evening across higher elevations
where temps will be close to freezing. Also can`t rule out a few
pockets of freezing rain, but given the depth of the low level cold
air, we think there will be more sleet than freezing rain.
Otherwise, just rain elsewhere. Then as the evening progresses,
height falls from approaching shortwave will begin to erode the warm
layer with any mixed precip flipping to snow north of the MA Pike
and west of I-495 around or after midnight. Inside of I-495 and
south of the Pike we are looking at mainly rain, which could mix
with sleet at times, but no impact with temps at least few degrees
above freezing.

Snow accum will vary greatly by elevation where temps close to
freezing will allow accumulating snow. Mid level low track will also
play an important role with best accum occurring to the north of the
track. This sets up the Berkshires and northern Worcester Hills for
the heaviest accum with potential for 4-6 inches accum, especially
near the VT and NH border where localized 8 inch amounts are
possible. The concern here is that heavy wet snow on trees and power
lines could result in some power outages. In the lower elevations of
northern MA, expecting a slushy coating to 2 inches as temps will
remain above freezing. We will have to watch interior NE MA
including the Merrimack valley late Wed night into Thu morning for a
period of moderate to heavy snow. This area will be at the nose of
the strong LLJ which will help to enhance precip rates. The surface
temps will be critical. We are currently thinking temps will not
drop below 34 degrees which would limit accum, but 1-2 degrees
cooler would result in 3 or 4 inches accum here during the Thu
morning commute. This will have to be monitored.

Strong to damaging wind...

Impressive 60-70 kt 925 mb jet which is 4-5SD above normal lifts
along the south and east coasts Wed night into Thu morning.
Soundings show a shallow but fairly well mixed boundary layer and
support 50-60 mph gusts along the coast, especially the Islands, and
outer Cape Cod to Cape Ann where there is some risk for 65 mph
gusts. Strongest gusts will occur Wed evening along the south coast,
then shift to Cape Cod northward through Cape Ann late Wed night
through Thu morning. We issued a high wind watch for the entire
coast. A secondary wind max is likely occur over elevated terrain
from NE CT through central MA and the Berkshires. Wind advisories
will likely be needed here.

Heavy rain and flooding...

Rain will become heavy at times Wed night as the low level jet lifts
north across the region, with heavy precip lingering into Thu
morning for NE MA along the nose of the low level jet. Rainfall of
1.5 to 2.5 inches is expected which will likely cause renewed
flooding for many of the rivers in RI and eastern MA that have
recently experienced flooding. River flood watches were issued for
these rivers.

Coastal Flooding...

 

And supporting weather graphics:

[TheRex]

Updated snowmap from BTV.  Lots of double-digit amounts on the map.

Quote

 

[TheRex]

BTV's forecast discussion for the storm.  It is quite a long write-up but this storm will be with us for several days.  I'm glad we got some really good weather the last several days before this begins.  Yesterday's beautiful day allowed me to get some outdoor things done to make my yard a little more presentable for those visiting for the eclipse next week.  The heavy wet snow events did a lot of damage to my wife's weeping willow trees and I spent the day picking up sticks.  We have 4 huge weeping willows, which I hate, that my wife adores.  Happy Wife, Happy Life!!!!

Quote

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...
* Early April Nor`easter will bring significant snow accumulation,
  with 3-7 inches in the valleys, 6-15 inches above 1000 ft
  elevation and locally up to 2 feet in the favored upslope
  locales.
* Damaging winds overnight tonight along western downslope areas
  of south-central Greens leading to numerous power outages.
  Localized blizzard and whiteout conditions will also lead to
  treacherous travel across the higher passes of Vermont
  overnight tonight.

The recent stretch of beautiful quiet spring weather is about to
come to an abrupt end. Just to our west, a potent vertically stacked
upper low is producing a full plethora of weather, from blizzards in
the Upper Midwest to severe weather outbreak across the lower Ohio
River valley into Appalachia. The closed off upper low will very
slowly rotate southeastward from southern Lake Michigan and become
even more amplified this morning. The teleconnection pattern leading
to this blocky pattern is the negative NAO and positive PNA, which
equates to Greenland block and ridging over the Northern Rockies.
Because of the amplitude of the upper low, we will be under the
influence of brief upper ridging through mid morning. While an
occluded front will be lifting northward through our CWA, very dry
antecedent air mass is in place. We would start the day with very
mild temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. As such, it would not
take much for temperatures to top out in the mid 40s to near 50 by
mid day, before falling during the latter half of the day. So only
expect light rain showers through the mid morning hours, with the
best chance for a light wintry mix across the southern Adirondacks
and southern Greens during the morning hours.

While the steady precipitation does not arrive till the afternoon
hours, the 850mb east southeast jet associated with the amplified
upper low over the Midwest will be steadily strengthening and set up
against the spine of the Greens. The jet increases to 70-80 kt by
the early evening hours, continue overnight, before the main axis
moves east by daybreak. By mid day, the baroclinity associated with
the upper low will spawn a secondary area of low pressure over the
Chesapeake Bay, which then tracks northeast towards eastern Long
Island and then eastern MA by Thursday morning. This will pull in an
lobe of -4 to -6C 925mb and -7 to -9C 850mb air into the region,
sufficiently cold enough to snow down to the valleys. The only
caveat is that forecast soundings show a layer of 0 to +2C air at
700mb initially in place for portions of the Adirondacks and south-
central Greens. So there looks likely to be a period of sleet during
steady precipitation onset overnight tonight. But as the column
cools entirely below freezing, the sleet will change over to all
snow prior to daybreak Thursday. Given the vertically stacked nature
of the upper low, impressive jet dynamics and good frontogenesis,
the SLRs should generally be 9 to 13:1, which will also equate to
over 1 to 1.5 inch per hour snowfall at times through Thursday
morning. So Thursday morning commute looks to be rather messy with
snow covered roads. By Thursday morning, snowfall accumulations
could be 2 to 4 inches here in the Champlain valley, with 5 to 12
inches above 1000 ft elevation. Across the Greens and Adirondacks,
amounts will likely vary significantly over short distances with the
screaming east southeasterly jet, from a foot of snow in the eastern
upslope areas and perhaps only 2 to 4 inches across the leeward side
of the slopes. Given the higher SLRs, power outage threat will come
primarily from the strong to damaging winds. Currently, we have the
High Wind Warnings across the western slopes of the Greens into
Rutland county, while Wind Advisories are in place across much of
northern NY and east of the Champlain valley. Scattered to numerous
power outages appear likely across the locales under High Wind
Warning, where 65 to locally 70 mph gusts are possible overnight
tonight. Besides the power outages, local blizzard-like and near
whiteout conditions are certainly possible, leading to treacherous
travel conditions overnight tonight. Finally, thundersnow is not out
of the question given the impressive dynamics, so do not be
surprised to hear rumbles of thunder this evening into the overnight
hours.

Then during the day on Thursday, it will still be snowing across
much of the CWA and it will continue to be breezy with the winds
switching to the northeast as the surface low pressure tracks
between Boston and Cape Cod. Given that it is early April, we do
have to consider the positive snow depth change across the valley
locales, where some rain could even mix in at times. Above 1000 ft
elevation, however, it will be a skier`s delight as the snow piles
on rather efficiently. With SLRs increasing to 12-15:1, patchy
blowing snow will be possible especially over the higher passes.
Temperatures are somewhat tricky for Thursday, but the daytime highs
should generally be in the low to mid 30s. By end of the day, storm
total snow for the Champlain valley should be in the 3-7 inches
range, with a rather wide range of 6-15 inches for locales above
1000 ft, and 1-2 ft for the favorable upslope areas of the Greens
and the Adirondacks. Breezy to at times blustery conditions could
certainly delay any power recovery efforts during the day on
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Wednesday...An upper level low will be slowly
crossing the Northeast Thursday night toward the east. This will
permit snow showers to continue throughout the night, with highest
snow shower chance at high elevations and northern slopes, though
snow showers are likely/expected for the entire forecast area. This
should result in additional snow accumulations of 0.5-4.5", strongly
dependent on elevation as snow ratios rise to 13-15:1. Lows will be
near average in the upper 20s to lower 30s with northerly winds
decreasing but remaining gusts up to 15-20 knots. This period will
generally mark the decrease in threat for power outages due to
lowered winds and drier/fluffier showery snow.

On Friday, the upper level low will continue to move ever so slowly
eastward. The chance of showery precipitation continues, though as
temperatures rise throughout the day into the upper 30s to lower
40s, some of the lower elevations will be dominated by rain type of
showers, with higher elevations clinging to snow type of showers,
and a mix in between. Favorable atmospheric mixing will cause the
day to be a bit blustery and relatively chilly with northerly winds
continuing to gust up to around 15-20 knots. Additional snow
accumulations from showers will be up to a few tenths outside the
Champlain Valley to an inch or two on the peaks.

 

[Hiramite]

I come over here to the NE for my "snow fix".

[MaineJay]

Has that "feel" in the air.  Great for ski areas, but most folks around here are not enthused.

[Undertakerson2.0]

31 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Has that "feel" in the air.  Great for ski areas, but most folks around here are not enthused.

It's like no white before Memorial Day, but in reverse - no snow after April 1 for the large majority of the population (outside of ski areas) 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Pretty impressive, if you ask me

Edited April 3 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

JAX Rule (when hvy convection in Jacksonville, with cold air present to the north = buttload o'snow) 

 

[tool483]

Just on the edge here, expecting to see a little snow but no stickage. Those to the north are looking at some big numbers. MJ, you look to be in a decent spot up there. Look forward to some pictures of our last NE storm of the season.

jbrumberg, interested to see how you do being up in the hills here. Good luck! It's been so muddy down here, I could only imagine places north of me here.

You can see the cold air pushing down

 

Edited April 3 by tool483

[jbrumberg]

It was a rainy 33ºF with some sleet mixing in during this morning's 🐕 tour of the lower perimeter.  It remains at 33ºF with the 36ºF recorded overnight probably becoming today's high temperature.  The WWA has been upgraded to a WSW.  The NWS/B-N Office's morning discussion of this weather event:

Spoiler

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Delayed the onset of the rainfall by a few hours across eastern
MA. That said, overall trend of the forecast remained on track.
Minor tweaks to temperatures to reflect observed trends.

Previous Discussion...

Key Points

* Rain spreads east across the region today with sleet in the high
  terrain

* Locally heavy wet snow in the high terrain could result in
  power outages and impact the Thursday morning commute

* Strong to damaging winds this afternoon into Thursday morning

* Heavy rain will likely cause minor river flooding in RI and
  southeast MA

* Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible for both the
  southern and eastern coasts

Sleet and Heavy Snow:

A strong upper level closed low continues to drop from the
Great Lakes and moves east. This closed low will provide the
support to rapidly intensify a surface low pressure system over
SNE. Rain begins to overspread SNE from west to east again this
morning. A rather complex temperature profile will be set up
across the region today. Bufkit soundings show a warm nose aloft
around 750mb with temps above freezing. Temps below 800mb drop
well below freezing. This will cause precip that melts in the
warm nose to refreeze into sleet before reaching the ground.
However, with the strong April sun angle temps near the surface
will be in the low to mid 40s except in the high terrain where
temps stay in the low to mid 30s. What this means is that sleet
is most likely in the high terrain with rain mixing in with
sleet elsewhere, away from the coasts. Sleet could become heavy
enough to accumulate on surfaces for elevations above 1000 feet.


Overnight, the warm nose aloft begins to cool below freezing.
This combined with temperatures dropping below freezing in the
high terrain will allow precip to turn to heavy wet snow. Lower
elevations along the CT river valley and along the coastal plane
should see temps remain above freezing tonight, however, with
temps dropping into the mid 30s, snowflakes may mix in with
rain. Snow accumulation totals will vary greatly with elevation.
Expecting the highest totals to be in the northern berks where
6-12 inches are possible. In the southern Berks, Temps will take
longer to cool below freezing resulting in lower snow
accumulations of 3-6 inches. Further east, the northern
Worcester hills should receive 4-8 inches with localized areas
of 12 inches. Uncertainty increases significantly across NE MA,
where a shift in the storm track could bring colder temperatures
down into northern Essex and Middlesex counties. Decided to
hold off on winter weather advisories with WSSI indicating less
then 50% chance for minor winter weather impacts in NE MA. The
heaviest snow is expected to fall tonight, which combined with
strong winds, will lead to very hazardous travel and isolated
power outages. Snow lingers into Thursday, with isolated snow
showers through Thursday night.


Strong to Damaging Winds:

Winds begin to ramp up in the afternoon and a strong easterly
LLJ begins to push north. Winds just above the surface at 2000
ft will approach 75 knots. Bufkit soundings show mixing
potential up to 1500-2000ft across the waters and near the
coasts. This could allow for gusts of 55-65mph. Sustained winds
could also approach 40mph for several hours tonight. Decided to
upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Winds Warning for all
coastal zones. Further inland, the mixing potential does not
reach as high and the 2000ft winds are only 55-65 knots. Opted
to issue a Wind Advisory for all interior zones that are not
included in the High Wind and Winter Storm Warnings. Winds
across the interior are expected to be sustained at 20-30 mph
with gusts of 50-55mph esspically across the high terrain.


Heavy Rain:

Moderate to heavy rain will fall Wednesday night as the core of
the LLJ lifts north across the region. Between Today and
Thursday, a wide spread 1-2 inches of QPF is expected region
wide. This will likely cause renewed minor river flooding for
the rivers in RI and eastern MA that have recently experienced
flooding. River flood watches remain in effect for those rivers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The center of the low continues to move northeast and weaken
during the day on Thursday. This will cause surface winds to
shift NNE, brining in cooler and drier air. Precip begins to
taper off Thursday morning, however, it will be cold enough by
Thursday to cause any lingering precipitation to fall as snow.
Generally not expecting major accumulations with only a trace to
half inch in the high terrain. Winds slowly diminish through
Thursday afternoon from west to east as the low pulls away.
Gusts of 15-25mph are still possible through Thursday afternoon.
Highs Thursday only top out in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Light snow showers could linger into Friday morning as the
center of the low slowly pulls away. Winds continue to diminish
and overnight lows drop near or below freezing.

 

@tool483-  Thanks. I may see 6" - 8" of heavy wet snow maybe more mixed with sleet and freezing rain on top of mud = makes for an ugly mess with the 🚜 if I travel on unpaved ground surfaces.  We'll see/

An upgraded snow graphic:

Edited April 3 by jbrumberg

[woodyelm]

Report from Mount Washington, NH.  High today 21 degrees F, 45 mph winds, and sleet to start the precipitation.  Here's the 10 day outlook.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=44.2705&lon=-71.3035&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

 

[woodyelm]

Drove from Hershey to Carlisle PA yesterday in a downpour that lasted all day.  Visibility was about 20 feet, mostly caused by semis misting up the vision making it hard to see the lane markers.  Coldn't drive over 35 mph.  Idiots were driving 60 mph plus.  These people must think they're in their living rooms watching the weather report.  But I didn't see any wrecks.

[Undertakerson2.0]

WE might have some impact from ultra soaked soils and today's winds (25 gusting to 40) . 

Well on the way to the 4" mark since 4/1. 

Currently...

Edited April 3 by Undertakerson2.0

[MaineJay]

36 minutes ago, tool483 said:

Just on the edge here, expecting to see a little snow but no stickage. Those to the north are looking at some big numbers. MJ, you look to be in a decent spot up there. Look forward to some pictures of our last NE storm of the season.

jbrumberg, interested to see how you do being up in the hills here. Good luck! It's been so muddy down here, I could only imagine places north of me here.

You can see the cold air pushing down

 

SREFs was way low with snowfall last storm. Hoping that this is a classic case of overcompensation...

 

[chaser915]

Alot of areas to my N and NE are under warnings. My particular county didn't rise to warning criteria. Just a WWA but it still could prove ugly.

NWS Albany

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and
  sleet accumulations of 2 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of
  around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of the western and southeastern Adirondacks,
  the Mohawk and Schoharie valleys, northern Washington County,
  the Helderbergs and the northern and eastern Catskills in
  eastern New York.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Friday.