April 2-5, 2024 | NE/Mid-Atl "Springter" Nor'Easter

[Hiramite]

27 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Below I'd say 1,500-2,000ft and ratios could be half that, but 6-10" of heavy wet snow is still a major issue. 

You thinking it's better looking at the Snow Depth maps for this event?

 

 

FWIW, I couldn't find info on the NWS snow ratio formula, just a couple of tidbits:

From Pivotal - In addition, the NWS National Blend of Models applies relatively sophisticated SLRs to each input model’s QPF. Although NWS NBM precipitation forecasts are essentially post-processed ensemble means, and therefore may tend toward smoothing out maxima in forecasts beyond the first 12-24 hours, the NBM’s SLR approach is more advanced than any individual NWP model on Pivotal Weather.

From NWS Publication PIS 23-45 (Dec 2023 update) - Modified the Snow Liquid Ratio (SLR) calculation by taking into account the melting of snow where temperatures are at or above freezing at the surface and removed the 25% reduction factor to each model input SLR value (CONUS, Alaska).

[MaineJay]

10 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

You thinking it's better looking at the Snow Depth maps for this event?

 

 

FWIW, I couldn't find info on the NWS snow ratio formula, just a couple of tidbits:

From Pivotal - In addition, the NWS National Blend of Models applies relatively sophisticated SLRs to each input model’s QPF. Although NWS NBM precipitation forecasts are essentially post-processed ensemble means, and therefore may tend toward smoothing out maxima in forecasts beyond the first 12-24 hours, the NBM’s SLR approach is more advanced than any individual NWP model on Pivotal Weather.

From NWS Publication PIS 23-45 (Dec 2023 update) - Modified the Snow Liquid Ratio (SLR) calculation by taking into account the melting of snow where temperatures are at or above freezing at the surface and removed the 25% reduction factor to each model input SLR value (CONUS, Alaska).

I'm not sure if there's a map that really works in these situations.  As in this situation, if your surface temp is going to be just above freezing, I'd simply cut the 10:1 ratio in half.

 Also comes down to how one wants to measure. Every hour and clearing a snowboard might yield a good "snowfall" number, but won't jive with the depth. 

  This past storm (3/22-24)has good initial ratios, then sleet, then more snow. Ended up with about a foot on the ground, but it was probably more like 8" of snow, 2" of sleet, then 4" of snow.

 I like the approach of using the 10:1, then using past experience to boost or trim totals.

The snow depth maps work sometimes, but fail miserably others I have found.  That said, I do use the EPS snow depth plumes often, but being an ensemble, I think that helps.

[MainelySnow]

22 hours ago, buxtonian said:

Interesting, this could be a real biggie and yet there is little interest. I guess, we Mainers are on our own. 

 

I've been hiding under the bed hoping the models and Keith Carson are wrong.  Last week was bad enough - I'd been back walking in the woods for a solid three weeks.  Now back to the treadmill for a week - uugh.  The whole house generator is our next priority - gotta get one before next winter - we've lost power 5 times this winter alone.  All multi-day restorations.

[MainelySnow]

21 hours ago, Wayuphere said:

I imagine they’ll be pulling eclipse visitors out of the mud who decided to venture onto our secluded dirt roads to escape the crowds.  Better know your road less traveled…😁

And they'll be wearing sneakers or flip-flops, have no chains and will be 2WD.  My grandson is getting out of school early to watch - I really hope it is sunny so he isn't disappointed.

[MainelySnow]

14 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

It would help if we knew where Maine is 😧

Part of Canada that was won in a hockey game.

[MainelySnow]

5 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Wonder if any houses get lost to the ocean with such a prolonged fetch. 

This is why I sold my house in Wells 10 years ago.  Couldn't take the storms and the uncertainty any longer. You've got to have wicked deep pockets now to rebuild down there and I my pockets have holes.  I wish the folks down there the best - they've just been hammered this winter.  Worse than 1978.

[MainelySnow]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

Mt Washington is going to have snow on it into July, maybe beyond at this point...

I wonder if they've ever had a year where the snow didn't entirely disappear.  If not, this could be the year, particularly if summer is below normal temp wise

[StretchCT]

This is still on the table.  NWS also has snow in the forecast even for me.

Edited March 31 by StretchCT

[so_whats_happening]

wow this may be a rather significant storm for the mountains in New England. May pop a couple snow showers down this way at times. Ill be in Texas after the front passes so ill be looking from afar. Enjoy the late season snow though!

[telejunkie]

 

1 hour ago, MainelySnow said:

I've been hiding under the bed hoping the models and Keith Carson are wrong.  Last week was bad enough - I'd been back walking in the woods for a solid three weeks.  Now back to the treadmill for a week - uugh.  The whole house generator is our next priority - gotta get one before next winter - we've lost power 5 times this winter alone.  All multi-day restorations.

It's got a big sticker shock...but I have a small solar array (10 panels) and a battery backup system and when we had multi-day power outages over Christmas, basically the only thing we did differently was turn off the heat pump and rely on the propane boiler for heat. I do have a gas generator as a secondary backup...but haven't needed to fire it up since getting the batteries and we've had a lot of outages over the past year. I don't know I've lost power until I get a text from my power company...it's seamless.

NAM-bino coming into range and it's not really back down either....as MJ alluded to....think above 2,000' will be the primary impact zone unless snow rates can overcome surface temps

[buxtonian]

2 hours ago, MainelySnow said:

I've been hiding under the bed hoping the models and Keith Carson are wrong.  Last week was bad enough - I'd been back walking in the woods for a solid three weeks.  Now back to the treadmill for a week - uugh.  The whole house generator is our next priority - gotta get one before next winter - we've lost power 5 times this winter alone.  All multi-day restorations.

We installed a solar electric system three years ago along with a Tesla Powerwall. Has worked well through all the outages.  I am so anxious for spring weather. 

[buxtonian]

1 hour ago, telejunkie said:

 

It's got a big sticker shock...but I have a small solar array (10 panels) and a battery backup system and when we had multi-day power outages over Christmas, basically the only thing we did differently was turn off the heat pump and rely on the propane boiler for heat. I do have a gas generator as a secondary backup...but haven't needed to fire it up since getting the batteries and we've had a lot of outages over the past year. I don't know I've lost power until I get a text from my power company...it's seamless.

NAM-bino coming into range and it's not really back down either....as MJ alluded to....think above 2,000' will be the primary impact zone unless snow rates can overcome surface temps

Same here, I really recommend the battery backup.

[MainelySnow]

4 hours ago, telejunkie said:

 

It's got a big sticker shock...but I have a small solar array (10 panels) and a battery backup system and when we had multi-day power outages over Christmas, basically the only thing we did differently was turn off the heat pump and rely on the propane boiler for heat. I do have a gas generator as a secondary backup...but haven't needed to fire it up since getting the batteries and we've had a lot of outages over the past year. I don't know I've lost power until I get a text from my power company...it's seamless.

NAM-bino coming into range and it's not really back down either....as MJ alluded to....think above 2,000' will be the primary impact zone unless snow rates can overcome surface temps

Interesting.  We were looking at propane but I'll let hubby know about the solar.  Is there a particular company that does the solar generators?  And how much sticker shock?  We are looking at about $12K for the propane generator

[tcari394]

40 minutes ago, MainelySnow said:

Interesting.  We were looking at propane but I'll let hubby know about the solar.  Is there a particular company that does the solar generators?  And how much sticker shock?  We are looking at about $12K for the propane generator

Sounds about right for propane.  We paid $13,500 (including installation) for ours back in 2022.  It's a 24kW Generac with the 200Amp ATS transfer switch.  Best investment for the house for far!

[MaineJay]

Players are on the field.

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

For the rest of Wednesday, precipitation will be advancing
north and east into the area. Current trends suggest snow
continuing for the Monadnocks, north through the Whites, and
then the western ME mountains. Meanwhile, more uncertainty is
across the interior and central to southern NH. This is where
conditions may well flip between snow/rain during the day w/
high sun angle and some daytime heating. At the same time,
should pockets of higher rates move in, wet snow may fall. With
warm layer aloft and sfc temps nearing freezing, have kept SLRs
across the area locked under 12:1. Cobb averages 7-10:1 at the
lower levels, and these will be drastically reduced until sfc
temps fall towards freezing Wed night. So, it may be snowing a
good clip for Wed afternoon commute, but still uncertain how
much will be sticking outside of the foothills and mountains.
Through Wed, accums may be largely elevation based.

Wed night, precip rates really pick up. This is when coastal
low should be further strengthening as it approaches central New
England and the Gulf of Maine. Interesting to note in
deterministic GFS trends a nod towards a partial Fuijiwhara
effect as coastal low is tugged inland towards a common center
with Great Lakes upper low. But which low can wrestle control of
the other? ECMWF trends have been more stout with the coastal
low, resulting in a pivot favoring the open Atlantic, keeping
coastal low along/off the coast through Thursday. The result of
this dance will play a role in precip type efficiency along the
coast and towards the Midcoast, thus there remains the most
uncertainty here. Global ensembles have been hinting at snow
accum probs greatest along the higher terrain (Monadnocks,
Whites, western ME mtns), and it will likely remain this way
until more consistency for sfc low track.

What is becoming more apparent is the threat for wet snow
falling at a heavy clip Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Opted to convert much of the overnight precip to snow due to
these rates, which crashes the rain/snow line to the immediate
coast and far southern NH. This would mean a slight improvement
in SLRs for the interior, which is now showing some
probabilities of major impacts on the WSSI-P tool for the
Monadnock and Lakes region of NH to the ME Lakes region.

Winds will also be gusty, strongest along the coast and higher
terrain. Gusts up to 35 mph can’t be ruled out back into
southern NH and along the ME coast overnight. This wind field
may expand greatly come Thursday afternoon as lows become
vertically stacked in the region.

Precip begins to taper in to Friday, with the area under
influence by the large low pres as it pulls east. This should
clear the area for much of the weekend to feature more quiet
weather.

 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

13 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

GYX

 

They went sun angle😀. Dang this has power outages written all over it. Good luck bud.

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

And really happy for ski resorts and skiers. Dump city up there, which is really cool. 

[ionizer]

Here in Killington VT this week.  Hoping they get a dump on wed.  When will the major snow end?

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Imagine that . NAO shows up late March into April, as always. Really looking forward to 4 days of rain, wrapped up by a cutoff upper level low, just to hold in the below normal temps, just in case i haven’t completely slit my wrists. Welcome to 2024, where endless clouds and doom rule. Fear not, summer is coming. Looking forward to smoke filled summer skies.

- Negative post of the year nominee right there. 
Enjoy your snow, ya freaks 😀😀

[Undertakerson2.0]

8 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Imagine that . NAO shows up late March into April, as always. Really looking forward to 4 days of rain, wrapped up by a cutoff upper level low, just to hold in the below normal temps, just in case i haven’t completely slit my wrists. Welcome to 2024, where endless clouds and doom rule. Fear not, summer is coming. Looking forward to smoke filled summer skies.

- Negative post of the year nominee right there. 
Enjoy your snow, ya freaks 😀😀

You left out that BOTH of my golf leagues were SUPPOSED to start this week...

NOPE!!

[TheRex]

BTV's latest snowfall map, which has increased totals from yesterday.  I've also included their high end total map just to show that there is potential for some big numbers, like the last storm that went through here.

Quote

Expected:

High End

 

[TheRex]

12 hours ago, ionizer said:

Here in Killington VT this week.  Hoping they get a dump on wed.  When will the major snow end?

Here's the latest forecast discussion from BTV.  It looks like the major stuff will be through Thursday night.  Seems like you may have some really good skiing conditions for April.  Having a late sunset on a ski day makes it more enjoyable, at least to me.

Quote

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...The brunt of the storm still appears to
occur Wednesday night through Thursday night with many factors still
uncertain enough to warrant not hoisting a winter storm watch.
Confidence is high that precipitation will occur, but where a
potential fgen band sets up and the impact of a very strong low
level jet and potential dry slot provide much lower confidence on
snow totals at elevations below 2000 feet. Higher up on the slopes,
it will be all snow, and a lot, likely approaching 2 feet near the
summits.

The general synoptic setup remains the same with a closed low over
the eastern Great Lakes deepening Wednesday night while transferring
energy to the coast and developing sub 990mb low over the New
England coastal waters. As this is getting underway Wednesday
evening, easterly flow will increase dramatically across the region
with the latest guidance showing the potential for a 75+kt 850mb jet
developing. Soundings are a little frightening across portions of
Rutland county where the core of the jet is below an inversion near
summit levels with mean mixed layer winds potentially >50kts. We`re
still not within the time range for higher res guidance though, so
this is certainly something we`re keeping an eye on. The good news
is that the jet is progged to move out by sunrise Thursday, so just
a brief period of impacts is possible. On the other side of the
mountain though, this scenario is favorable for strong upslope snow
and it`s likely here early Thursday morning where a strong fgen band
will set up as the low deepens in the vicinity of Boston.

By Thursday morning it should be snowing across the entire region
with the upper low overhead and the surface low tucked in around
Boston, but ratios may lessen during the afternoon with some surface
heating reducing travel impacts. This will be a long duration event
though as upstream blocking will slow the exit of the system with
rounds of wraparound moisture expected through Friday. With ensemble
total QPF amounts still in the 1-2" range, accumulations in excess
of 6" still exist across much of the area with upwards of a foot
possible across the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont, while the
Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys may see more like 3-6".

Drier conditions look to return for the weekend but some higher
elevation snow may continue into Saturday.

 

[jbrumberg]

It does appear that the midweek weather will be a rain, wintry mix, and elevation dependent snow.  From the NWS/B-N Office morning discussion:

Spoiler

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long Term

Highlights

* Strong low-pressure system approaching the northeast will have the
  potential to bring heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding, and
  potentially heavy snowfall for the higher elevations Wednesday
  into Thursday

* Cool, cloudy, and unsettled weather continues Friday into the
  weekend

Wednesday and Thursday

Latest suite of deterministic and ensemble forecast guidance
continues to support the development of a robust low-pressure system
that is forecast to bring potentially significant impacts to
southern New England Wednesday into Thursday. Impacts may include
heavy rainfall, strong winds, coastal flooding, and heavy wet
snowfall for the higher elevations of The Worcester Hills and The
Berkshires. The most concerning aspect of this storm is the
potential for 6+ inches of heavy wet snow that combined with strong
winds could support downed powerlines and power outages.

Just how much heavy wet snow falls over the elevated areas will be
dependent on the track of the surface low which remains the greatest
area of uncertainty in the forecast. The storm track will be
impacted by the strength and amplitude of an expected downstream
ridge that at the very least is expected to support a slower moving
system and a significant precipitation event for the forecast area.
Ensemble probabilities of 48 hour accumulated precipitation
exceeding 2 inches currently range from 40 to 50 percent for the
locations east of the city of Worcester. This implies a moderate
degree of confidence in at least a significant rainfall even that
could renew river flooding in RI and southeast MA.

The less confident area of the forecast is in how much precipitation
will fall as snow between Wednesday afternoon/evening and Thursday
morning. Ensemble probabilities of snowfall exceeding 8 inches
currently range from 30 to 50 percent across the higher elevations
of The Worcester Hills and The Berkshires. This however assumes a
10:1 snow to liquid ratio which may be difficult to achieve this
time of year. However, even if we cut that rain in half, there`s
still a decent chance for 4 to 6 inches of heavy wet snow for the
higher elevations. As for the lower elevations, mild boundary layer
temperatures near or above freezing will make it difficult for
significant accumulations to occur. Depending on the storm track, a
dusting to and inch or two may be possible for the lower elevations
along and west of the I-95 corridor on unpaved surfaces.

In addition to the snow/heavy rainfall threat, there also to be a
moderate risk for strong winds with probabilities of wind gusts
exceeding 50 mph ranging from 30 to 50 percent along the MA
coastline. Furthermore, strong onshore winds and rapid pressure
falls may be supportive of a significant storm surge that could
support minor to moderate coastal flooding along the east coast.
Latest PETSS guidance supports a surge of up to 3.2 feet. If this
occurs at high tide, minor coastal flooding would be likely with
pockets of moderate coastal flooding possible as well. The timing of
the impacts associated with this event is also an area of
uncertainty given the speed of the storm will depend on the
aforementioned downstream blocking ridge. As of now it looks as
though the center of the surface low would be tracking over the
forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This would mean
lighter rain/snow early in the day would be followed by heavier
rain/snow Wednesday afternoon continuing into the Wednesday
overnight hours. As we enter the window of hi resolution model
guidance over the next 24 to 36 hours, we should have a better idea
of the most likely storm track, associated impacts of heavy wet
snow, and overall timing of the discussed impacts.

 

And the related snow graphic:

[jbrumberg]

We'll See.

More Weather Graphics: