April 8, 2024 | Eclipse Weather

[Undertakerson2.0]

AFDDAL (TX) - 

Spoiler

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Many AFD's are mentioning that once CAM (convection allowing models) come into range (later today) we'll be a whole lot more certain.

I am expecting high clouds where I'll be going. (SW NY)

We won't let their prospect diminish what we expect to be an awesome experience. I still maintain that the conditions will still allow us to experience all but the finer details of viewing (Bailey's Beads, Diamond Ring, etc.) 

 

Edited April 6 by Undertakerson2.0

[Hiramite]

03Z SREF for Monday 11A - 5P.  ATM, it's looking like a nail biter for the NE OH, NW PA, W NY crowd.  T-time ~3:15 to 3:30 (19Z) for the area.

[Hiramite]

2 hours ago, Rush said:

Welp headed to the airport.

Good luck. 

[Hoosier]

The HRRR is one of the few models that is able to explicitly model the eclipse (I don't believe any global model does), so particularly interested in what it will show when it gets in range.

[Hiramite]

Today’s forecast was: Mostly Cloudy.  I’ll take this “mostly cloudy” sky on Monday.

 

Edited April 6 by Hiramite

[Hoosier]

The nerves will really be kicking in tomorrow night into Monday as far as what the clouds will do.  This is pretty much as high stakes as it gets as you know the next chance for a do-over in the CONUS is 20 years away.  

I didn't arrive at my final spot in 2017 until after the partial was already well underway.  Would rather get there earlier this time.  When I pulled into Goreville, IL, it was quite a sight.  Here was this small town of about 1000 people and it seemed like everybody was outside of their homes, with crowds of all sizes gathered at various spots throughout town.  Just from what I saw, there were probably thousands of people that descended on that town.  

[Mainiac]

Both the short range ensembles and NWS blend are encouraging for northern Maine. The models seem to be in agreement there will be clouds west of Burlington and east of Presque Isle with a gap in the middle.  The timing being all the difference as to when they come to Burlington and when they leave Presque Isle. 

 

Snapshots of the CMC and NAM 12km look promising and show the same general features. 

Conditions 3:30 PM

Will definitely be looking forward to the HRRR tomorrow night.

[TheRex]

18 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Oye, The Forks is south of there, that's where I've been planning on going for almost 3 minutes of totality.  Not sure they can handle a huge influx. Population there is like 1,000, and I think there's only 2 gas stations in town.

Sorry.  Maybe I'm the only one to have noticed it on the website.  Just hope The Weather Channel doesn't show up.

[Snowbelted]

[Mainiac]

29 minutes ago, TheRex said:

Sorry.  Maybe I'm the only one to have noticed it on the website.  Just hope The Weather Channel doesn't show up.

I think Houlton being at the end of I-95 (and possibly the world, nobody really knows) will be the epicenter in Maine. NASA will be doing a stream from there so I would not be surprised if the Weather Channel showed up as well. 

Personally I’m not going south of Presque Isle to avoid the chaos. I was considering getting a lift up Big Rock on Mars Hill but in the end decided to stay closer to home and will locate based on how the weather looks that morning.

[MaineJay]

I'm hoping most stick to the highway, and cautiously optimistic they will. Millinocket and Houlton probably seem more accessible to people heading to Maine.

[Mainiac]

8 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I'm hoping most stick to the highway, and cautiously optimistic they will. Millinocket and Houlton probably seem more accessible to people heading to Maine.

Agreed.  

If I was going to choose a spot regardless of people, it would be the turnout scenic stop on Interstate 95 at Mile 252 near Medway, with a view west over Salmon Lake. 

 

I’m sure there are a thousand other people who have this place in mind as well, lol. 

[Lazman]

An App called Astrospheric is a free download that I use for planning my telescope viewing nights. You can check it out for Android. Not sure if Zuckerberg has it. 

 

[Hoosier]

Here's the low, middle, and high level cloud output from the 12z Euro, valid at 19z Monday.  Totality happens near 19z in the southwestern portion of this map and a little after 19z farther northeast.

The consensus between this and other model runs is that if we are dealing with clouds, we are probably going to be dealing with more in the way of high cloudiness compared to lower clouds for the region covered by these maps.  If that's the case, then the million dollar question is how extensive and thick will those clouds be.  High clouds wouldn't totally ruin the experience, but it may make it more difficult to pick out certain aspects of the eclipse, such as the corona.

 

 

 

[TheRex]

1 hour ago, Snowbelted said:

This brings the clouds east all the way to Burlington.  This is a surprise.

[Rush]

In Austin.  Cloudy humid and drizzling.  It's an omen for Mondays conditions 

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, TheRex said:

This brings the clouds east all the way to Burlington.  This is a surprise.

I think those would be of the high, thin variety.  Milky type sky.

25 minutes ago, Rush said:

In Austin.  Cloudy humid and drizzling.  It's an omen for Mondays conditions 

Ugh. Here's to favorable trends in the last 40 ish hours. 

Ecmwf

[MaineJay]

HREF almost in range. 

 

[Rush]

46 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

 

Ecmwf

 

The euro looks okay for me.  Even the 12z GFS has brought the clear skies 100 miles closer (100 more to go).  The NWS seems all in on the GFS, don't know what to believe.

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Rush said:

The euro looks okay for me.  Even the 12z GFS has brought the clear skies 100 miles closer (100 more to go).  The NWS seems all in on the GFS, don't know what to believe.

That's a cool product.  It doesn't really tell us about the "quality" of the sunshine though for lack of a better word.

[Wayuphere]

4 hours ago, Mainiac said:

Agreed.  

If I was going to choose a spot regardless of people, it would be the turnout scenic stop on Interstate 95 at Mile 252 near Medway, with a view west over Salmon Lake. 

 

I’m sure there are a thousand other people who have this place in mind as well, lol. 

I was considering this as an alternative but wonder if DOT will open the gate or if it needs plowing, doubtful it will need it as it’s paved.

[Wayuphere]

On 4/5/2024 at 5:21 PM, MaineJay said:

Oye, The Forks is south of there, that's where I've been planning on going for almost 3 minutes of totality.  Not sure they can handle a huge influx. Population there is like 1,000, and I think there's only 2 gas stations in town.

Another one of my favorite scenic overlooks is the Attean Lakes pullout on 201, between The Forks and Jackman.  Faces west, but imagine it may be either snowpacked or if not, crowded. Might be worth a check out as it’s just up the road. Another amazing place.👍  I would think the DOT would run a plow through these scenic turnouts tomorrow.🤷🏼‍♂️

We are headed to Moosehead Lake, Greenville area.

[Hiramite]

15z SREF.  Ugh for NE OH.

(To give credit where credit is due, the blends/ensembles have pretty consistent with the cloud forecast this week…..unfortunately for those under the blue.)

[Hoosier]

So as mentioned earlier, the HRRR is one of the models that actually models the eclipse.  Here you can see it showing up in the incoming solar radiation plots.  Notice the big drop between 17z and 18z, especially in the southern/western US and southward, and it spans a much larger area than the path of totality.  Totality is about to reach Mexico at 18z.  

This should show up in the temperature output in later runs as the eclipse continues to progress into the US.

Edited April 6 by Hoosier