April 8, 2024 | Eclipse Weather

[Ohiobuckeye45]

37 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

IF only!

rgem not too far from that

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

CMC obviously pretty close to RGEM

[NWOhioChaser]

Local Mets fairly optimistic of a clearing trend on models. Looking better for pretty good viewing in my neck of the woods. If this holds and comes to fruition, there’s going to be a mass influx of people in this region. 

[Snowbelted]

CLE Discussion

For the heavily watched forecast period of Monday afternoon, uncertainty remains in the forecast for the timing of the warm front and the resolution of the upper trough in the central CONUS. However, the ensembles are continuing to favor the warm front clearing much of the forecast area by mid-afternoon and the upper trough gliding north of the ridge. If this is the case, then there is room for the ridge to remain strong across the region and this would allow for a more favorable final forecast. Therefore, this is promoting the slightly drier and less cloudy forecast at this time.

[Hiramite]

It’s official!!   There will be sun in NE OH! 🙃
 

 

[Rush]

Can someone with more knowledge explain where the cloud formation is happening here?  My one semester of community college meteorology isn't enough.  My understanding is clouds form when Temp = Dewpoint.  Why does the NAM show nearly 100% cloud cover across Texas with sounds like this?  

[MaineJay]

Never seen such a wonderful forecast so locked in.  A month ago I was sure that to was going to get clouded out, still having anxiety over it, but excited like when I was having one of my kids, maybe more...

Quote

Monday still looks good from a meteorological standpoint, for
eclipse viewing, with mainly clear skies light winds,, and highs
around 50 in the mtns to the upper 50s in the S. Still there
will be deep snow depth, and melting of that snow which will
make for snow covered or muddy conditions off road, and on
maintained roads. There is a back door front that may graze the
NE zones, but probably not until Monday evening, which may
increase clouds, but air mass is very dry, so it is unlikely to
have much effect otherwise on eclipse viewing or travel. Lows
Monday range from the upper 20s in the mountains to the low to
mid 30s in the S.

 

[Rush]

4 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Never seen such a wonderful forecast so locked in.  A month ago I was sure that to was going to get clouded out, still having anxiety over it, but excited like when I was having one of my kids, maybe more...

 

Here I am flying to my own funeral.

[Undertakerson2.0]

12z Euro Op SimStuff.  At this juncture, I'll take it and run. Those thin clouds ain't scarin me. I

Edited April 5 by Undertakerson2.0

[TheRex]

35 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Never seen such a wonderful forecast so locked in.  A month ago I was sure that to was going to get clouded out, still having anxiety over it, but excited like when I was having one of my kids, maybe more...

 

BTV is not mentioning the word "eclipse" in their forecast discussions now.  I may sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder if they aren't playing up how good the weather will be on Monday because the area is worried about being overrun with eclipse watchers?  I've been reading where some people have been changing their plans and now are coming to New England to see the event rather than further west where, historically, the chances for clear weather was higher than New England.

I'll take my wife to the tavern this evening and will see if there are many out of state tags in the parking lot.

[Undertakerson2.0]

AFDCLE is EXCELLENT - Long but worth it

Spoiler

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Eclipse Totality on Monday Afternoon... If nothing else, there is relatively high confidence of changing weather as we go from Monday morning into the mid afternoon totality window that will have significant impacts on the potential viewing of the eclipse in our CWA. An upper level trough axis will bring a line of showers through the region in the morning hours that will likely be becoming more and more diffuse as it does so. Not everyone will get wet from it, and those places that do should not see much more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain. There is a necessity to be looking at all layers of the atmosphere up through 250mb for the cloud forecast, and there is reasonable confidence as of this issuance that the mid levels of the atmosphere will dry out fairly easily after this trough axis aloft passes, at least west of far NE OH and NW PA.

The NAM and GFS forecast soundings are indicating insolation in the wake of this upper level wave commencing around the 11am-12pm Monday time frame, give or take, for the western and central portions of the forecast area. Time stepping from 12pm through 3pm, boundary layer mixing will become efficient fairly quickly, and vertical profiles indicate a scattered flat cumulus field will try to develop prior to the eclipse starting and continuing through the late afternoon hours.

Omega values increase instantly off the surface, supporting the thought that these clouds are going to be largely surface temperature driven. What the soundings are not taking into account, however, is as the eclipse begins and the moon starts blocking sunlight/reducing insolation, there could be some onset surface cooling taking place when it would normally be heating at that time of day. With just modest cooling at the surface of perhaps 2-4F, that could be enough to cease the cumulus field formation as totality time approaches just after 3pm by stabilizing the near surface environment. Also, what cumulus had formed could start dissolving out as well. Near lakeshore areas, against the cooler Lake Erie waters and subjected to less daytime heating may not get much of a cumulus field development to begin with.

For the regions within our CWA, the western zones out in the FDY/TOL area have the better chances for clearer conditions come eclipse totality time where even the boundary layer moisture looks to be less, progressively getting less confident in clearer skies further east but still with some optimism towards NE OH. In NW PA, this area still has a chance at lingering moisture from that trough axis and some of the higher concerns for cloud cover, but this is not yet set in stone. On the flip side, there is some concern for the advection, or horizontal transport, of cirrus clouds into the area from the southwest. The timing of this would be early to late afternoon, and right now, there is not much consensus or confidence in the operational models and a relatively high spread in how or if that upper level moisture could materialize, or the thickness of those high clouds.

Important aspects still to note...first, this forecast discussion is a heavy lean right now on operational models at this point. Second, the forecast is still 3 days out. Timing on Monday, as mentioned earlier, in a changing weather scenario is absolutely crucial. Any slowing of the upper trough axis currently forecast to be coming through in the morning or increase in the speed of potential cirrus moving in from the southwest would certainly lead to a more pessimistic sky cover forecast. We will also be getting into the range of more CAMs and their outputs over the next 24 hours, and details will continue to emerge and possibly fluctuate.

It is a tough forecast scenario with many things happening at once on the synoptic and mesoscale, and unless it is completely clear or completely overcast, the sky cover element is one of the most difficult in the forecast on a day to day basis. Temperatures in the upper 50s for NW PA, 60s for NE OH and north central Ohio, and lower 70s for NW OH. Expect a temperature drop of a few degrees as the eclipse occurs that will rebound again in the late afternoon after the event is over. All in all, keeping our fingers crossed and trying to be optimistic, but not out of the woods just yet.

 

Edited April 5 by Undertakerson2.0

[Hiramite]

20 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

AFDCLE is EXCELLENT - Long but worth it

  Reveal hidden contents

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Eclipse Totality on Monday Afternoon... If nothing else, there is relatively high confidence of changing weather as we go from Monday morning into the mid afternoon totality window that will have significant impacts on the potential viewing of the eclipse in our CWA. An upper level trough axis will bring a line of showers through the region in the morning hours that will likely be becoming more and more diffuse as it does so. Not everyone will get wet from it, and those places that do should not see much more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain. There is a necessity to be looking at all layers of the atmosphere up through 250mb for the cloud forecast, and there is reasonable confidence as of this issuance that the mid levels of the atmosphere will dry out fairly easily after this trough axis aloft passes, at least west of far NE OH and NW PA. The NAM and GFS forecast soundings are indicating insolation in the wake of this upper level wave commencing around the 11am-12pm Monday time frame, give or take, for the western and central portions of the forecast area. Time stepping from 12pm through 3pm, boundary layer mixing will become efficient fairly quickly, and vertical profiles indicate a scattered flat cumulus field will try to develop prior to the eclipse starting and continuing through the late afternoon hours. Omega values increase instantly off the surface, supporting the thought that these clouds are going to be largely surface temperature driven. What the soundings are not taking into account, however, is as the eclipse begins and the moon starts blocking sunlight/reducing insolation, there could be some onset surface cooling taking place when it would normally be heating at that time of day. With just modest cooling at the surface of perhaps 2-4F, that could be enough to cease the cumulus field formation as totality time approaches just after 3pm by stabilizing the near surface environment. Also, what cumulus had formed could start dissolving out as well. Near lakeshore areas, against the cooler Lake Erie waters and subjected to less daytime heating may not get much of a cumulus field development to begin with. For the regions within our CWA, the western zones out in the FDY/TOL area have the better chances for clearer conditions come eclipse totality time where even the boundary layer moisture looks to be less, progressively getting less confident in clearer skies further east but still with some optimism towards NE OH. In NW PA, this area still has a chance at lingering moisture from that trough axis and some of the higher concerns for cloud cover, but this is not yet set in stone. On the flip side, there is some concern for the advection, or horizontal transport, of cirrus clouds into the area from the southwest. The timing of this would be early to late afternoon, and right now, there is not much consensus or confidence in the operational models and a relatively high spread in how or if that upper level moisture could materialize, or the thickness of those high clouds. Important aspects still to note...first, this forecast discussion is a heavy lean right now on operational models at this point. Second, the forecast is still 3 days out. Timing on Monday, as mentioned earlier, in a changing weather scenario is absolutely crucial. Any slowing of the upper trough axis currently forecast to be coming through in the morning or increase in the speed of potential cirrus moving in from the southwest would certainly lead to a more pessimistic sky cover forecast. We will also be getting into the range of more CAMs and their outputs over the next 24 hours, and details will continue to emerge and possibly fluctuate. It is a tough forecast scenario with many things happening at once on the synoptic and mesoscale, and unless it is completely clear or completely overcast, the sky cover element is one of the most difficult in the forecast on a day to day basis. Temperatures in the upper 50s for NW PA, 60s for NE OH and north central Ohio, and lower 70s for NW OH. Expect a temperature drop of a few degrees as the eclipse occurs that will rebound again in the late afternoon after the event is over. All in all, keeping our fingers crossed and trying to be optimistic, but not out of the woods just yet.

 

You are fast, I just came here to post it.   Quite a bit of ink indeed!!!  Good info even if you’re not in N OH.

Edited April 5 by Hiramite

[Hoosier]

I'm finding myself turning into an eclipse snob.  After experiencing the 2 min 40 sec totality in 2017, I really want that 4 minute totality this time.  Don't want to settle for something like 3 min 55 sec even though it really makes no practical difference.  Definitely want to be near center as well since totality will occur for 55+ miles on either side of the center line, compared to about 35 miles either side of center in 2017.  That means light all around the horizon will be farther away than 2017.  

[TheRex]

On the Tomer Burg eclipse site, Jackman, ME has the lowest cloud cover percentage than anywhere else in the US.  Anyone here going to be in that area?  From here it is less than 5 hours but 75% of the driving is done through Quebec.  I don't plan to leave my property on Monday though.  

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, TheRex said:

On the Tomer Burg eclipse site, Jackman, ME has the lowest cloud cover percentage than anywhere else in the US.  Anyone here going to be in that area?  From here it is less than 5 hours but 75% of the driving is done through Quebec.  I don't plan to leave my property on Monday though.  

Oye, The Forks is south of there, that's where I've been planning on going for almost 3 minutes of totality.  Not sure they can handle a huge influx. Population there is like 1,000, and I think there's only 2 gas stations in town.

[Rush]

4 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Oye, The Forks is south of there, that's where I've been planning on going for almost 3 minutes of totality.  Not sure they can handle a huge influx. Population there is like 1,000, and I think there's only 2 gas stations in town.

One of my friends last minute decided  they were driving to Plattsburgh from Maryland with 3 kids under 7.  They were bringing their campaign gear.  He had no idea their was snow on the ground. Monday should be fun.

[beaver56]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'm finding myself turning into an eclipse snob.  After experiencing the 2 min 40 sec totality in 2017, I really want that 4 minute totality this time.  Don't want to settle for something like 3 min 55 sec even though it really makes no practical difference.  Definitely want to be near center as well since totality will occur for 55+ miles on either side of the center line, compared to about 35 miles either side of center in 2017.  That means light all around the horizon will be farther away than 2017.  

I am very close to dead center.  We will be camping and drunk on our farm this weekend. 😆 Great times. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

16 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

I am very close to dead center.  We will be camping and drunk on our farm this weekend. 😆 Great times. 

Don't get too drunk this weekend

The eclipse is on MONDAY 😁

[Hoosier]

Obviously areas that experience totality tend to have the biggest temperature drops, but a substantial partial or annular eclipse can be enough to cause a temp drop.  Here's some obs from Lafayette, IN  on 5/10/1994, which was in the path of an annular eclipse.  The eclipse peaked around 1 pm and the temperature dropped from 68 to 64 around that time.  

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/in/west-lafayette/KLAF/date/1994-5-10

Wherever there is a lot of sunshine leading up to the eclipse on Monday, then areas that experience totality could very well drop about 7-10 degrees.  

[Undertakerson2.0]

Getting super nerdy on a Friday night

Clouds dissipate quickly during solar eclipses as the land surface cools

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01213-0

Edited April 5 by Undertakerson2.0

[Snowbelted]

[Rush]

Welp headed to the airport.

[Undertakerson2.0]

00z Euro Op SimSat - 3 pm E day

[Undertakerson2.0]

AFDBUF - citing many of my points the past few days. I.e. - higher thin clouds, may dissipate even if present due to decreasing insolation aspect, cloud maps are essentially useless even still. 

Cloud forecast during the Monday afternoon eclipse remains uncertain at this junction and may not even be fully known until just a few hours before the event starts. Confidence remains high that high level cloud cover will be over nearly the entire area, with an expected band of mid level cloud traversing at least a portion of western New York. Model mid and upper level moisture fields during the afternoon do show a favorable decreasing trend which would suggest the idea that some of this cloud cover will thin

[Undertakerson2.0]

AFDCLE - another long winded, but worthwhile read for those in their zones

Spoiler

Here`s the bottom line up front for the all important Monday forecast: No hazardous weather is expected at this time in the forecast area. The forecast will be dry for much of the forecast area during the Monday afternoon timeframe and temperatures will be above normal, ranging from the upper 50s in NW PA to lower 70s in NW OH. There remains uncertainty in the final cloud cover forecast, as it is still 60 hours from the Monday afternoon window and many smaller features to resolve that will dictate the final forecast, but at this time, a completely opaque, overcast sky is not likely. To dive further - many of the themes of the previous forecast remain. Rain chances will be moving east across the forecast area and generally diminishing through the day, as the energy that will support Sunday night`s rain chances will be well northeast and fizzling with the ridge to the east. Any residual rain chances will hinge on the incoming warm front on Monday, which is appearing more likely to hang up around Lake Erie on Monday afternoon. On the northeast side of this feature, there still is an isolated rain chance. However, more importantly, the northeast side of this feature will be the most impacted by lower clouds and has the most pessimistic sky cover forecast at this time. The placement of the warm front will also dictate how warm temperatures get, areas of NE OH and NW PA will only be broached by the front, whereas much of the rest of the region will enjoy the impact of the warm air advection regime with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. One consideration with the warm sector will be the possibility of diurnally driven cumulus. While there may be just enough low level moisture to allow for some clouds, the effects of the solar eclipse itself will likely help mitigate diurnal cumulus chances, as the lessening insolation during the afternoon may mitigate temperatures just enough to prevent a full cumulus field from growing. There are also concerns for higher clouds with the strengthening of an upper level jet that will lift to the northwest Monday afternoon into Monday night. In the end, with a multitude of factors to impact the cloud forecast at this time, uncertainty remains, especially at around 60 hours out from the solar eclipse event. Confidence should increase once the forecast period reaches the window of the convective allowing models, starting later today.