April 8, 2024 | Eclipse Weather

[Rush]

NAM will be in range tonight.  Gives us something to stress over in between the other models.

Looking at the NAM at hour 84 on Sunday afternoon it has the low further northeast and the front across far eastern Texas.  Which would allow dryer air into center Texas on Monday.  Need all the hopium I can get right now.  Just need about 75-100 mile jog east on this front to save Texas.

[NWOhioChaser]

2 hours ago, Rush said:

NAM will be in range tonight.  Gives us something to stress over in between the other models.

Looking at the NAM at hour 84 on Sunday afternoon it has the low further northeast and the front across far eastern Texas.  Which would allow dryer air into center Texas on Monday.  Need all the hopium I can get right now.  Just need about 75-100 mile jog east on this front to save Texas.

Your gain would be my(and others) loss. Just how it goes I guess lol.

[Hoosier]

Even though it will be clown range for the HRRR, still greatly anticipating the 18z Saturday run to see what the cloud output is showing at 48 hrs.

[Hoosier]

7 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

This is from a local MET on the difference between 99% and totality, so don't let anyone tell you "oh it's fine were close"

Those images should be shared with anyone and everyone who is on the fence about going.

[clm]

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Those images should be shared with anyone and everyone who is on the fence about going.

Life is in the way this year for me and the wife, but saw a partial eclipse some years ago and thought it was pretty cool.  Still going to watch this one from Long Island (if the clouds behave).  

[Undertakerson2.0]

12z Euro Op SimRad 2 p.m. E-day

[Hiramite]

For the N OH gang.  From CLE (4-4 PM AFD):

Exact details for the April 8, 2024 Eclipse remain uncertain, although confidence is medium to high that the area will not experience completely opaque/overcast skies. Ensemble cluster soundings continue to suggest a mix of scattered high and low cloud cover across the region Monday morning and afternoon.

Edited April 4 by Hiramite

[Ohiobuckeye45]

7 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

For the N OH gang.  From CLE (4-4 PM AFD):

Exact details for the April 8, 2024 Eclipse remain uncertain, although confidence is medium to high that the area will not experience completely opaque/overcast skies. Ensemble cluster soundings continue to suggest a mix of scattered high and low cloud cover across the region Monday morning and afternoon.

a 3 minute cloud break at just the right time could make up for it

[junior]

This will be close. Hopefully the models are right in scattered precip dying off into the day. Of course none at all would be perfect.

[clm]

3 hours ago, junior said:

This will be close. Hopefully the models are right in scattered precip dying off into the day. Of course none at all would be perfect.

[snowlover2]

7 hours ago, junior said:

This will be close. Hopefully the models are right in scattered precip dying off into the day. Of course none at all would be perfect.

I saw NWS IND calling the GFS (the most cloudiest model) an outlier and now it's looking better around here. I think we are in decent shape.

[Undertakerson2.0]

00z Euro Op SimSAT (why you guys let me call it SimRad?) 2 p.m. E-day

[Undertakerson2.0]

As of 6z run today - 12k NAM now in "range" (wayyy outside its wheelhouse though) 

[Rush]

5 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

I saw NWS IND calling the GFS (the most cloudiest model) an outlier and now it's looking better around here. I think we are in decent shape.

GFS had my house has 100% cloud cover yesterday.  We had a few small low level clouds and some whisky upper level clouds.  Nothing that would have ruined the eclipse.

[Undertakerson2.0]

13 minutes ago, Rush said:

GFS had my house has 100% cloud cover yesterday.  We had a few small low level clouds and some whisky upper level clouds.  Nothing that would have ruined the eclipse.

YES - I've been advising folks not to get all wrapped up in solely looking at the CC maps. The level and type of clouds are not shown using only that method. Best to view moisture maps (available on most model sites) and compare those. 

I'd argue that the cloud cover maps are causing undue concern by many. 

I appreciate your giving actual examples of reality v. projections

[Rush]

7 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

YES - I've been advising folks not to get all wrapped up in solely looking at the CC maps. The level and type of clouds are not shown using only that method. Best to view moisture maps (available on most model sites) and compare those. 

I'd argue that the cloud cover maps are causing undue concern by many. 

I appreciate your giving actual examples of reality v. projections

I've been watching this product too.  Minutes of sunshine per hour.  I feel like it gives an idea of gaps in the cloud deck.

[Hiramite]

Some improvement in the OV shown on the Blend.

[Hiramite]

WPC

 

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 12 2024

The dynamical models/ensembles and 12Z ECMWF-initialized machine
learning models (MLs) offer good clustering in principle for
significant features from Monday into early Wednesday. The primary
stray solution is the new 00Z CMC which tracks the southwestern
upper low farther southwest than other guidance from Monday onward,
leading to delayed phasing to the east. The 12Z CMC was a bit on
the southwest side as well but fit closer to the western side of
the guidance envelope.

 

[Hiramite]

Tom Burg has created this handy-dandy summary page for select cities.  Scroll down to City Dashboard.

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/eclipse/

[Undertakerson2.0]

VERY glad that I called the venue we'll be at. Turns out they have automatic parking lot lights. They assured me that now that I drew their attention to them, they will see to it that they are disabled for the hours of the event. 🙂 

[Undertakerson2.0]

IF only!

[Hoosier]

Obviously could still change my mind depending on clouds, but really honing in on the area a bit outside of Bloomington, IN.  Perhaps Ellettsville or somewhere arouund there.  Don't want to be in Bloomington itself though I expect Ellettsville will be bad enough with heavy traffic.  Wherever I end up, want to be relatively near the center line even though there will be a price to pay in terms of extra traffic.  Just comes with the territory.

[snowlover2]

ILN calling for partly cloudy skies here.

Quote

To our west, robust, stacked low will be occluding and slowly moving
eastward toward the area. Rain arrives to the region from west to
east by Sunday evening and moves through the area during the
overnight hours into Monday. Very skinny CAPE will be in place, so a
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Right now, precip looks
to come to an end for much of western Ohio by Monday morning and the
thickest of the cloud cover should begin to move off to the east.
Currently, have gone with partly cloudy skies for the eclipse, which
should result in viewable conditions. Thanks to the southerly flow,
high temperatures reach the upper 60s/low 70s.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

IKE also has diminished over the region I'll be 🙂 

[Undertakerson2.0]

GFS seems to be following suit with the moth eaten look to CC over the E Lakes region