April 8, 2024 | Eclipse Weather

[Hassaywx1223]

47 minutes ago, Blitz said:

This would just be icing on the cake, for Ohio weather. No snow. Long, gray, slightly-not-cold enough winters, short summers...
I'm becoming more and more disenchanted with the weather in my home state. Really think I need to move south.

Wouldn’t call the summers short theres evidence behind the fact that summer is carrying into October and winter is carrying in April and spring and fall is less time but the blend is starting to give us a look 

[Hoosier]

Anyone else finding it a little challenging to message this to family/friends?  I think a lot of the general public doesn't realize the huge difference between totality vs not having totality.  If you're in an area with 95% obscuration, you don't get 95% of the eclipse effects.  It's not nothing, but it's just nowhere near the same as a total.  Can't remember if it was here or somewhere else but somebody said that a 99% eclipse is a 0% total eclipse.  I like that line and have started using it.  

[Rush]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone else finding it a little challenging to message this to family/friends?  I think a lot of the general public doesn't realize the huge difference between totality vs not having totality.  If you're in an area with 95% obscuration, you don't get 95% of the eclipse effects.  It's not nothing, but it's just nowhere near the same as a total.  Can't remember if it was here or somewhere else but somebody said that a 99% eclipse is a 0% total eclipse.  I like that line and have started using it.  

Totality or bust.  If you aren't in totality there might as well not be an eclipse.

I saw a comment somewhere that said, "Being in 99% vs 100% is like your parents taking you to Disney World, but  you never leave the parking lot"

The first partial eclipse I saw was in England in 2015.  I didn't really appreciate totality till seeing it myself in 2017.  Now I've put a deposit down for a trip to Egypt in 2027 since I am fairly certain I won't see it this time.

Edited April 3 by Rush

[Undertakerson2.0]

7 hours ago, TheRex said:

This is probably you and your wife the evening after the eclipse, having the time of your lives:

And this will be me.  I have a few drinking buddies coming up to visit for a couple of days.

You cats just keep cuing up the life stories for me. One time after getting off bartending, I decided to go take in a movie - I had not yet met Mrs. UTS, so going to movies was a go to for me to pass otherwise lonely nights. Anyway, it was snowing as I left work and there was no one on the roads and the only theater opened was showing Dirty Dancing. I figured what the heck and  bought a ticket and then went to the snack counter - the ticket guy walked over to the snack counter and served me - I went to the restroom - when I came out, the ticket/counter guy was now the usher. I went in to the dark theater and sat near the front. After a while I turned around and looked to realize I WAS THE ONLY PERSON IN THE ENTIRE THEATER AUDIENCE!! After a minute, the ticket/snackbar/usher guy came in the room and said "I'll start the movie now". WTH? He was even the projectionist? Yep! I kept checking for any stragglers but, nope, I was the only person there.  (believe it or not, at one point I fired up a Marlboro, having still been addicted to that disgusting habit - who knows what my ManyHats was up to) After the movie was over, I walked out to the parking lot - 4" of new snow on my car and one other lone car next to mine in the lot. Figuring it was Mr ManyHats, I swiped it off for him - figured it was the least I could do. 

And so it was that I can say that I think I am the only person in my town to have gone to see that movie on big screen - literally!! 

We  will be in W NY but not the Catskills - ha ha. 

Edited April 4 by Undertakerson2.0

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Rush said:

Totality or bust.  If you aren't in totality there might as well not be an eclipse.

I saw a comment somewhere that said, "Being in 99% vs 100% is like your parents taking you to Disney World, but  you never leave the parking lot"

Haha, I like that one too.

I witnessed the annular eclipse on 5/10/1994 when it was like 89% with the ring of sunshine visible all around.  It was nice, it created some neat shadows and I remember the temperature dropping a bit, but that overall experience was not in the same league as what I saw on 8/21/2017.  Not even close.  I got goosebumps during totality in 2017 and it was like 85 degrees outside.

[Undertakerson2.0]

12z Euro SimRad: 18z (2 p.m. EDT) 

[Hassaywx1223]

See something for Once in a lifetime. then never have to work in your life again seems like a good plan 😂

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

On Mon the cloud forecast remains optimistic. I have used
eclipse temp tool to reduce hourly values down during the hour
of totality. I would suspect with fresh snow on the ground in
the path that temp drop will happen rather fast. Otherwise
looking at conditions for eclipse chasers there are a couple of
concerns. One is that there will be deep snowpack in areas of
the path of totality...winter roads may be difficult or
impossible to travel. Other locations that see some sun or
warmer temps before Mon will see melting...and off road mud may
start to become an issue. Finally in the higher elevations it
will be near freezing...with inversion height forecast to be
near ridgeline. This would lead to gusty winds and apparent
temps closer to the lower to mid teens. Any hikers should be
prepared for winter conditions in the mtns.

 

[TheRex]

I bought my Sunny D and Eclipse Gum today.  I'm stoked for the big event.

Edited April 4 by TheRex

[TheRex]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

GYX

 

It may be my imagination, but I saw more out of state cars than usual today while I was out getting supplies for the event.  I picked up my grocery order and the guy that brought them out to the car said they have been really busy the last two days with orders filled with party type foods.  Probably some people are up to ski this week and then stay for the eclipse.  

I wonder how many people will have to be rescued from snowy or muddy roads over the next  5 days.  Tow truck drivers will be in high demand.

[clm]

1 hour ago, TheRex said:

It may be my imagination, but I saw more out of state cars than usual today while I was out getting supplies for the event.  I picked up my grocery order and the guy that brought them out to the car said they have been really busy the last two days with orders filled with party type foods.  Probably some people are up to ski this week and then stay for the eclipse.  

I wonder how many people will have to be rescued from snowy or muddy roads over the next  5 days.  Tow truck drivers will be in high demand.

Edited April 4 by clm
found better image

[MaineJay]

They added some eclipse stuff to the RAMMB slider. 

The white line are the 1% intervals.

[Undertakerson2.0]

00z Euro Op SimRad - 2 p.m. E-day

[Rush]

41 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

00z Euro Op SimRad - 2 p.m. E-day

Some holes down over Texas which I'll take.  The models tend to trending towards a thinner more scattered cloud base.  Pivotal added cloud thickness on the GFS.

I've accepted it's probably not going to be clear enough for photography (which is a shame since I have upgraded my equipment substantially since 2017).  But if all we have to contend with is a thin high cloud deck then at least we can see it.

 

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

The all important Monday forecast, looks mainly sunny across the
entire CWA, as high pressure builds to our S, and highs around
50 in the mtns to near 60 in srn NH. One possible fly in the
ointment, is backdoor cold front, but models mostly hold this
off until much closer to sunset, but it may add a few more
clouds, especially to the NE zones, but for now didn’t really
add to sky cover, given the dry air in place, and the timing of
the front. Lows Monday do drop into the upper 20s in the N,
ranging to the mid 30s in the S. Generally Tue and Wed look dry
with partly to mostly sunny skies.

 

[MaineJay]

16 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Anyone else finding it a little challenging to message this to family/friends?  I think a lot of the general public doesn't realize the huge difference between totality vs not having totality.  If you're in an area with 95% obscuration, you don't get 95% of the eclipse effects.  It's not nothing, but it's just nowhere near the same as a total.  Can't remember if it was here or somewhere else but somebody said that a 99% eclipse is a 0% total eclipse.  I like that line and have started using it.  

I talked my mom into coming up and joining me, the wife, and kids. I think my sister is going to come as well.

 I've been working on a house for a little while and the food work from home, so we converse quite often. They are worse Chatty Kathys than I, so they know well that I'm super excited for the eclipse, and they know my plans. 

  Yesterday, I show up and they ask are they really missing out only seeing 96%, so I said, " if you want me to talk you into seeing it, give me 10 minutes.". They have 3 kids, 8,9, and 11, so I played that card and said it's one of the coolest memories you can ever give you kids, plus all the other stuff about totality being a completely different animal.

   The kids like me, so when they got home from school, I told them I did my best to get their parents to pull them from school and see the eclipse.  I even gave gave oldest one the line @Rush said about totality is going to Disney World, 96% is parking at Disney, and looking at it from there, and said use that on your mom.

 I pretty much convinced them, but their mom was concerned about her work schedule and one of the kids presentation on Monday.  I said there people get "sick* all the time, not another eclipse in Maine until 2079, go see the eclipse, worry about the other shit afterward,, make an amazing memory.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

This is from a local MET on the difference between 99% and totality, so don't let anyone tell you "oh it's fine were close"

[Rush]

21 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I

   The kids like me, so when they got home from school, I told them I did my best to get their parents to pull them from school and see the eclipse.  I even gave gave oldest one the line @Rush said about totality is going to Disney World, 96% is parking at Disney, and looking at it from there, and said use that on your mom.

 I pretty much convinced them, but their mom was concerned about her work schedule and one of the kids presentation on Monday.  I said there people get "sick* all the time, not another eclipse in Maine until 2079, go see the eclipse, worry about the other shit afterward,, make an amazing memory.

I home school my kids and I also teach Astronomy/earth science at a local home school coop to 1st graders.  I've been hyping this event up and convinced at least three families to drive to totality from Maryland.  One is leaving this morning and driving to Arkansas, 14 hours.

I really want my kids to see this.  I don't care if I get to see it really.   I am planning on leaving my wife and 1 year old at our rental and driving 3-4 hours northeast with my older kids if need be Monday morning.

[Rush]

Map of Airbnb availability Sunday night.

[Undertakerson2.0]

41 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I talked my mom into coming up and joining me, the wife, and kids. I think my sister is going to come as well.

 I've been working on a house for a little while and the food work from home, so we converse quite often. They are worse Chatty Kathys than I, so they know well that I'm super excited for the eclipse, and they know my plans. 

  Yesterday, I show up and they ask are they really missing out only seeing 96%, so I said, " if you want me to talk you into seeing it, give me 10 minutes.". They have 3 kids, 8,9, and 11, so I played that card and said it's one of the coolest memories you can ever give you kids, plus all the other stuff about totality being a completely different animal.

   The kids like me, so when they got home from school, I told them I did my best to get their parents to pull them from school and see the eclipse.  I even gave gave oldest one the line @Rush said about totality is going to Disney World, 96% is parking at Disney, and looking at it from there, and said use that on your mom.

 I pretty much convinced them, but their mom was concerned about her work schedule and one of the kids presentation on Monday.  I said there people get "sick* all the time, not another eclipse in Maine until 2079, go see the eclipse, worry about the other shit afterward,, make an amazing memory.

We secured extra tix to the event we're going to AND reserved TWO rooms in advance. We invited 4 other couples to join us in the PoT. Each in turn, turned us down. (we have since cancelled the second room - much to the delight of someone on a waiting list I was told by the venue) 

One couple said that they couldn't go because "we saw the one in 2017 and our granddaughter has school that day". First off, they saw the 2017 event from Hbg - IOW not within PoT. Second the child gets let off school for every little tummy ache or contrived malady but THIS event they "can't miss" school for. (this same couple is upset with me that I'm not going to go camping with them early this weekend, for trout fishing - I'm going with the daughter of my deceased brother) . 

Another couple was going to go with us, but got a better offer from the wife's friend who lives in Cleveland, so cancelled as well. (I could tell when my buddy called me that this was his wife's call) 

Fortunately, we don't try to change anyone's minds - we are never disappointed being the only two of our set at any event and we will, surely, not be the ones with lamentation afterwards. 

[Hiramite]

Not much change.   With that, as Dean Taylor once sang, "Indiana Wants Me"...

[Undertakerson2.0]

9 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Not much change.   With that, as Dean Taylor once sang, "Indiana Wants Me"...

"Indiana Wants Me"...

Now wait just a dang-burned minute there pal - one MUST be an old head to catch the reference you just made. 

I should know - I had a 6th grade SRA assignment to interpret the lyrics to that tune. I was never much of a student otherwise, but on that assignment I received such effusive praise from my teacher that it was a "spring board" moment in my young life. Her recognition of the level of my understanding and thought process relative to the emotional depths, that the song's protagonist was conveying, inspired me.  

Ever since then, I embraced my seeming proclivity to words and phrases - indeed, to most every language art. 🙂

[Undertakerson2.0]

WOW - this is a rather large reduction in clouds over the area I'll be at ( W NY)

[TheRex]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I talked my mom into coming up and joining me, the wife, and kids. I think my sister is going to come as well.

 I've been working on a house for a little while and the food work from home, so we converse quite often. They are worse Chatty Kathys than I, so they know well that I'm super excited for the eclipse, and they know my plans. 

  Yesterday, I show up and they ask are they really missing out only seeing 96%, so I said, " if you want me to talk you into seeing it, give me 10 minutes.". They have 3 kids, 8,9, and 11, so I played that card and said it's one of the coolest memories you can ever give you kids, plus all the other stuff about totality being a completely different animal.

   The kids like me, so when they got home from school, I told them I did my best to get their parents to pull them from school and see the eclipse.  I even gave gave oldest one the line @Rush said about totality is going to Disney World, 96% is parking at Disney, and looking at it from there, and said use that on your mom.

 I pretty much convinced them, but their mom was concerned about her work schedule and one of the kids presentation on Monday.  I said there people get "sick* all the time, not another eclipse in Maine until 2079, go see the eclipse, worry about the other shit afterward,, make an amazing memory.

The more I've read about other people's experiences at past total eclipses, the more I can't believe that I never went out of my way to be part of one when I was younger.  I've encouraged my friends from NY/NJ to come up and stay with me but most are too busy.  This forum has helped me realize how big of an event this is.

[Hiramite]

My bold....

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024 - 12Z Thu Apr 11 2024

Model guidance remains in reasonably good agreement on the weather
pattern through the medium range period; however, there is still
an expected amount of spread and uncertainty locally for this time
range. The main differences between model solutions surround the
complex evolution of the frontal systems across the central U.S.
early next week. There are differences in how the models are
handling the ejection of the upper low towards the Upper Midwest,
which will in turn affect timing and location of fronts,
precipitation, and cloud cover.

The WPC forecast was mainly derived from a multi-model blend of
the 18 UTC GFS and 12 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CMC for maximum system
detail through this weekend into Monday. For Tuesday-next Thursday,
Canadian and ECMWF ensemble means were increasing relied upon over
time to smooth out model differences consistent with
predictability.
These ensemble systems are overall less progressive with systems
than the GEFS and this solution seems a better match with models
and pattern ampitude. Latest 00 UTC guidance maintains these trends.

 

Edited April 4 by Hiramite