April 8, 2024 | Eclipse Weather

[Rush]

GFS had 100% cloud cover down here today all week.  Was clouded over in Austin but party cloudy in the hill country.  Fine eclipse viewing weather.  Hoping the same on Monday.

[Rush]

SREF cloud thickness has gone from 70% here yesterday to now 20%.  Chance of clouds from 100% to 50%.  

[Hoosier]

Black hole sun in action

 

[MaineJay]

Looking at the NAM3, I'm perhaps being overly optimistic, but none of these really scream stratiform type clouds, and I'm confident *some* will dissipate with the loss of heating. What's the sun take up, like 0.01% of the sky? So just need some holes where it's cloudy.

[Hoosier]

 

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

As if a gift from the weather gods, Monday, will will start
sunny and should stay that way through the the whole day,
although some thin cirrus may move in from the SW late in the
afternoon, but this should not affect eclipse viewing,
especially in the path of totality. It will be mild, with highs
ranging from the low 50s in the mtns, to around 60 in srn NH.
West winds should be limited to around 10 mph as well. Still,
although nice in the N, there is still plenty of snow around,
and it will be melting, which will make many areas off the main
roads muddy or still snow covered. Care and preparation should
be taken if heading into the path of totality.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

windy.com view of the 00z Euro (8-3 p.m. Eday)

[Undertakerson2.0]

Euro again - the way I have been showing it. I am being optimistic that those clouds E of Erie will be thin and allow us decent viewing. 

The wife asked yesterday if we should forgo our trip. I said, "you know what will happen if we were to do that"... "the headline will be, 'Western NY State sees miracle as clouds move just in time for eclipse view' " 

Ain't no way I'm missing this chance. We OG's have only so many chances left. 

[Rush]

Sitting here before sunrise enjoying a nearly clear bottle 1 sky and the Milky way.   My phone said it was cloudy, the models yesterday showed me in clouds this morning.  Gotta hold onto hope.

[Hiramite]

Last three SREF runs, 2P EDT.   New run out in about an hour.

[MaineJay]

Looks like I'll have to makeshift a solar filter.  I ordered one and was to be delivered Thursday, but the storm screwed everything up, so all I know is it'll be here by 4/9...  I'd gladly drive to Auburn to pick it up, but can't figure out if that's even possible.  I found an old one that was given to me that doesn't thread onto any of my lenses, so I might just tape it on.  😅  

  Going to practice with the cameras today. 

[Hiramite]

For those curious about the cloud dissipation during an eclipse, here's the short of it from space.com:

Low-level cumulus clouds — which tend to top out at altitudes around 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) — were strongly affected by the degree of solar obscuration. Cloud cover started to decrease when about 15% of the sun's face was covered, about 30 minutes after the start of the eclipse. The clouds started to return only about 50 minutes after maximum obscuration.

 

The long of it from nature.com.  Probably good for insomnia tonight.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01213-0

[Hiramite]

1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

The wife asked yesterday if we should forgo our trip. I said, "you know what will happen if we were to do that"... "the headline will be, 'Western NY State sees miracle as clouds move just in time for eclipse view' "

Even though I'm in the path, I'm considering a 30 mile drive west.  If I do, I'm afraid that I'll hear the neighbors talk about such a miracle when I get back.  Decisions decisions. 

[Mainiac]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

GYX

 

The forecast is shockingly good and seemingly out of nowhere. Here, it will be the warmest day since November and one of a handful of clear days in the last month. It’s almost like this grand showcase of our mighty star was orchestrated and destine to be seen. 

Clearly evidence we are living in a simulation! 😝

 

[Hiramite]

9Z SREF at 2PM EDT Monday.

Edited April 7 by Hiramite

[Undertakerson2.0]

48 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

For those curious about the cloud dissipation during an eclipse, here's the short of it from space.com:

Low-level cumulus clouds — which tend to top out at altitudes around 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) — were strongly affected by the degree of solar obscuration. Cloud cover started to decrease when about 15% of the sun's face was covered, about 30 minutes after the start of the eclipse. The clouds started to return only about 50 minutes after maximum obscuration.

 

The long of it from nature.com.  Probably good for insomnia tonight.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01213-0

Sooooooo hoping that comes into play with my viewing area. This is HRRR as per Windy charts - razor close to being in Okay/Good as is. If that effect takes hold, it may even push us close to "great". 

 

I'd better get a move on though. These bags ain't packing themselves and I've got plenty to do if we're going to leave at 4 a.m. to arrive at the location. 🙂

 

[MaineJay]

Phone test with mostly cloudy skies. Obviously totality can't shine through like this, but can still see a crisp, circular sun through the glasses too.

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Spectacular! If you would’ve told me 2 months ago that we would we be in a better position than Texas has historically been in, I would’ve been very skeptical. And yet here we are. With this news, I feel like there’s going to be a massive last minute influx of visitors to our area today. 

[MaineJay]

Some nice magnetic loops on the east limb associated with some decent spots.  Hoping a 300mm lens on an 18mm sensor will be enough magnification to see the Corona nicely.   I do have a couple telescopes I could rig up, but I want to keep it simple as to not ruin the moment trying to mess with equipment. 

 

 

[Rush]

HRRR.  Some breaks in the cloud deck in Texas.  

[Mainiac]

As an amateur, I’ve decided to go outside and take five or six pictures and call it good in preparation of the big event.

Lots of clouds out this morning. I think my Sigma 200mm F2.8 with 2x tele will be good enough for my purposes. I’ve decided I’m going to bracket seven stops to leave room for error and focus on the eclipse rather than photos as it is a once in a lifetime experience.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

Won't be quite the same but there will be other ways to experience

[Hoosier]

Good consensus for mostly clear skies in northern IL/IN, but that area is outside of totality.  So close yet so far.  That being said, we could have a worse cloud forecast for central/southern IN than what we have, so will remain optimistic about viewing being mostly unimpeded.

[MaineJay]

Caribou

Quote

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Despite being in a relatively active stormy pd, some how we
scored a nearly perfect day Mon to obsv the eclipse under sunny
to msly sunny skies durg the mid aftn hrs, with the eclipse
being total for most Nrn ptns of the FA. Interestingly, the CFS
model was hinting on this break in cld cvr as far back as a
month ago with the running 6 run 500mb Ht/Anom mean having the
FA just ahead of a mean upper ridge for Mon Apr 8th, even back
then.

 

The waiting is killing me.  Sorry to all sweating this out.

I'll be near Jackman.

[Rush]

Forecast for 100% cloud cover today...