April 8, 2024 | Eclipse Weather

[Wayuphere]

4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

The closet analog for this area is probably the Phish shows in northern Maine late 90s early oughts.  Traffic on 95 was pretty epic.  This will at least spread folks out.  I'm cautiously optimistic folks won't think to go where I'm going. Sugarloaf is nearby, know a few folks heading there.

I was in the middle of the Phish traffic jam up north.  We were golfing up there and sat for hours on Rt1 south of Presque Isle in the southbound departing mass.  It became a party, literally.  We decided to join in. Good times. Our plan is flexible for the eclipse.  I’m 15 minutes away from totality, but am thinking that depending on that day’s satellite view, we can head either north or west, using the backroads to get to the 3 minute total zone which is 30 minutes away, using the back roads.  

[MaineJay]

9 hours ago, Wayuphere said:

I was in the middle of the Phish traffic jam up north.  We were golfing up there and sat for hours on Rt1 south of Presque Isle in the southbound departing mass.  It became a party, literally.  We decided to join in. Good times. Our plan is flexible for the eclipse.  I’m 15 minutes away from totality, but am thinking that depending on that day’s satellite view, we can head either north or west, using the backroads to get to the 3 minute total zone which is 30 minutes away, using the back roads.  

I've resigned myself to the possibility, if not likelihood of getting stuck in traffic.  Now I'm a weirdo, I tend to think the "best memories" are borne from events that don't go as planned, or have some obstacles.  Outdoor concerts in severe thunderstorms, almost getting arrested in Utah driving cross country,  backwoods camping in in downpours, forgetting where you parked your car at the Rage against the Machine /Wu-Tang concert at Great Woods. A show that almost didn't go on because Zack busted his ankle,  Wu-tang canceled last minute because they thought the show wouldn't go on,  but after waiting hours, Rage took the stage, played way past curfew, and I didn't find my car until most vehicles had left.  I finally located the old 1987 jetta sitting there at about 330am.  

 Ah memories, they are mutch better stories when things go awry. 

Side note, I love that the 90s are coming back in style.  Wool socks and Birkenstocks, stove pipe jeans, (Jncos anyone) cargo pants, watch chains, t shirts 3 sizes too large.  Now I'm just getting nostalgic. 

Good times. 

I'm trying to get the wife to blow off work and join me and the kids, so I'm not even mentioning it to her about the traffic potential...😬

[Rush]

22 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I'm trying to get the wife to blow off work and join me and the kids, so I'm not even mentioning it to her about the traffic potential...😬

I got my wife to take an entire week off work.  Not an easy task.  She keeps telling me that I can't let clouds ruin this trip.  Little does she know I am already planning our trip to Luxor in August of 2027 if this gets cloudy.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[Undertakerson2.0]

41 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

I've resigned myself to the possibility, if not likelihood of getting stuck in traffic.  Now I'm a weirdo, I tend to think the "best memories" are borne from events that don't go as planned, or have some obstacles.  Outdoor concerts in severe thunderstorms, almost getting arrested in Utah driving cross country,  backwoods camping in in downpours, forgetting where you parked your car at the Rage against the Machine /Wu-Tang concert at Great Woods. A show that almost didn't go on because Zack busted his ankle,  Wu-tang canceled last minute because they thought the show wouldn't go on,  but after waiting hours, Rage took the stage, played way past curfew, and I didn't find my car until most vehicles had left.  I finally located the old 1987 jetta sitting there at about 330am.  

 Ah memories, they are mutch better stories when things go awry. 

Side note, I love that the 90s are coming back in style.  Wool socks and Birkenstocks, stove pipe jeans, (Jncos anyone) cargo pants, watch chains, t shirts 3 sizes too large.  Now I'm just getting nostalgic. 

Good times. 

I'm trying to get the wife to blow off work and join me and the kids, so I'm not even mentioning it to her about the traffic potential...😬

I'm amazed that Mrs UTS took off work for this - AND she made the arrangements and THEN told me. 

Also - it is very cool when the "plan" doesn't happen - yet something far cooler does. Like the time we went to Dover DE to the NASCAR races and it rained and the race cancelled until the next day - and we didn't have a room - long story short, we spent the evening in a  poker room with Tony Stewart, Gregg Biffle, Kurt Bush (all superstars of their day) - and members of their crew members and we all had ice cream I had brought along. Yeah - that was a weird set of circumstance (and some brash pluck on my part). - and ended up sleeping in a $400/night suite no charge. 😮 This is but one example of a ruined plan turning to gold

Point is not to brag or name drop - only to say that even when the plan is trashed, if you remain friendly and flex - you may could be pleasantly surprised and, as MJ said, end up with one of "that time that..."

Edited March 30 by Undertakerson2.0

[telejunkie]

Canadian ensembles liking our chances for a clear view....

[Hoosier]

It's remarkable how fast these things sweep across.  For example, totality in Indianapolis starts only 25 minutes after totality starts in Dallas!

[MaineJay]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's remarkable how fast these things sweep across.  For example, totality in Indianapolis starts only 25 minutes after totality starts in Dallas!

2017 as seen by GOES.

 

 

[Hoosier]

35 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

2017 as seen by GOES.

 

 

Neat!

[Hoosier]

Here's the 12z GFS.  This is for 18z and 21z Monday so you can sort of interpolate.  Will be nice when we get into range of the short range models since there will be hourly output and the time around 19z Monday is the most critical time for many areas.

 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Omg, you guys are the best! My son and my wife are heading north for this, weather permitting. This is awesome!

[Rush]

Waiting for that trend to start clearing out Texas.

[Undertakerson2.0]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's remarkable how fast these things sweep across.  For example, totality in Indianapolis starts only 25 minutes after totality starts in Dallas!

"Racing around to come up behind you again..." 

[clm]

On 3/29/2024 at 4:40 PM, MaineJay said:

My destination is pretty rural, more moose than people.

This is you, isn't it?  🤪

[Hiramite]

I said to myself I wasn't going to look until a few days out, but...           

Hats off to Pivotal for Eclipse Coverage.  Here's The Blend:

 

[Rush]

2 hours ago, Hiramite said:

I said to myself I wasn't going to look until a few days out, but...           

Hats off to Pivotal for Eclipse Coverage.  Here's The Blend:

 

Never has a model been so locked into a solution at 300 hours out as these clouds.  Wish they could predict snowstorms like this 

[Undertakerson2.0]

GEFS Trends - past 4 runs means % CC

 

Same things GEPS/CMCE

 

Edited March 31 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

Seems to me that the GFS based set of solutions continues to be on the eastern edge of the envelope as it pertains to the midwestern trough. IOW  the Euro and CMC  --backed a bit by JMA and ICON which are not quite in range, also the NAV - all seem to be less progressive. 

This bodes well for nearly everyone save maybe the S tier of states (those cats have plenty to sweat over as even the CMC increasingly showing clouds in that region due to return flow off the GOM) 

[Undertakerson2.0]

http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/eclipse/

Edited March 31 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

WPC Ext Fcst Discussion Updated 3:48 EDT

Activity will spread into the Plains later next weekend with cyclogenesis and frontogenesis over the central High Plains being blocked by a highly amplified omega blocking pattern that is forecast to set up across the U.S. from coast to coast. -- Kong/Schichtel

[Undertakerson2.0]

[MaineJay]

If these forecasts hold, relatively fresh snow would presumably means it feel a bit less dark during totality?  

Can't ask for better than this, still a week to go however. 

Pretty mild, so like @Wayuphere mentioned, might be a few folks stuck in the mud.

 

[Rush]

There is definitely a small trend moving that moisture in Texas further east.  I've gone from 80-90% clouds to 60% in the last 24 hours on the ensembles.  The Euro especially has eroded the near solid cloud cover.  The euro has more convection now that day so it could be a case of right place right time.  Better than a solid cloud deck.

[MaineJay]

My primary destination is The Forks, but if it looks like it will be better chance at viewing near Millinocket, I may go that route instead.  Trying to keep the options open and be flexible. 

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, Rush said:

There is definitely a small trend moving that moisture in Texas further east.  I've gone from 80-90% clouds to 60% in the last 24 hours on the ensembles.  The Euro especially has eroded the near solid cloud cover.  The euro has more convection now that day so it could be a case of right place right time.  Better than a solid cloud deck.

I've watched the 2017 eclipse GOES loop a few times.  You can see how many of clouds over the Lower Mississippi Valley dissipate as the Moon's shadow moves across.  Not completely clearing, but from like 75% to 25% in some cases.