April 8, 2024 | Eclipse Weather

[Hiramite]

Rarely is there such and event in one's life, especially for us weather folks, that involves so much anticipation and anxiety at the same time as a Total Solar Eclipse. This thread is to monitor the weather (assess the threat of clouds) for the next 10 days along the eclipse's path.  Good luck viewing.

 

If you didn't already know, there has been an ongoing thread in the Space section that has general eclipse info.....

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/352-april-8-2024-total-solar-eclipse/

 

[MaineJay]

EPS is optimistic for where I plan on going. 

[Rush]

6 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

EPS is optimistic for where I plan on going. 

 

Go to Texas where there is historically a 10% chance of clouds, they said.

That said, the Euro is the only one all in on clouds.  The CMC and GFS should be clear where I am going.  I'll be 60 miles off the Mexican border.

Edited March 29 by Rush

[Undertakerson2.0]

I have been reading several online forums relative to the eclipse. There are many accounts that speak to both sides of our "coin". 

Some went and spent time in an area forecast to be totally clear - only to have last minute cloudiness mute the experience 

Some went and spent time in "iffy" areas (some even with clouds right up to the event) - and were pleasantly surprised when the sun appeared and put on the show

Some even speak of when the clouds came in "high" and negated the need to use special glasses - they could see the event without them, from start to finish 😮 

Euro Ens have median 10.5 hours sunlight for where I'll be. Latest GFS looks even better - the midWest longwave is weaker and slower at 6z. 

My main hope is that it's relatively warm that day. We'll be at an outdoor venue for an hours long "party" and I'd hate to have to go back to the car to warm up on the regular. 

[Rush]

5 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I have been reading several online forums relative to the eclipse. There are many accounts that speak to both sides of our "coin". 

Some went and spent time in an area forecast to be totally clear - only to have last minute cloudiness mute the experience 

Some went and spent time in "iffy" areas (some even with clouds right up to the event) - and were pleasantly surprised when the sun appeared and put on the show

Some even speak of when the clouds came in "high" and negated the need to use special glasses - they could see the event without them, from start to finish 😮 

Euro Ens have median 10.5 hours sunlight for where I'll be. Latest GFS looks even better - the midWest longwave is weaker and slower at 6z. 

My main hope is that it's relatively warm that day. We'll be at an outdoor venue for an hours long "party" and I'd hate to have to go back to the car to warm up on the regular. 

I took this picture through clouds in northern England in 2015.

[NWOhioChaser]

Best guess thus far from a local met here in Toledo. Mentions the importance of the staying power of the high pressure moving across the country. Says right now the best chances lie in the Northeast. 
 

Whatever happens, there’s a consensus of a major storm in the middle of the country and the cloud deck will be massive…😬

Edited March 29 by NWOhioChaser

[StormfanaticInd]

Either way it will get dark outside 

[Snowbelted]

Extended forecast for MBY. I would be ok with this. We will see how it goes.

 

APRIL 8

Afternoon

4/8

65°

RealFeel® 70°

RealFeel Shade™ 64°

Partly sunny

WindS 6 mph

Wind Gusts15 mph

Humidity42%

Dew Point40°

Probability of Precipitation0%

Precipitation0.00 in

Cloud Cover39%

Visibility10 mi

[snowlover2]

Pivotal now has a cloud cover mean map of the 3 major ensembles over their previous 4 runs.

Eclipse 2024 Cloud and Visibility Watch — Pivotal Weather

[TheRex]

5 hours ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Best guess thus far from a local met here in Toledo. Mentions the importance of the staying power of the high pressure moving across the country. Says right now the best chances lie in the Northeast. 
 

Whatever happens, there’s a consensus of a major storm in the middle of the country and the cloud deck will be massive…😬

I saw a map a few months ago that showed historically my area in VT had the highest possibility in the US of being cloudy on April 8.  It would be something if our area ended up having some of the nicer weather for the event.  I don't think my local infrastructure could handle an extra influx of tourists if people decided to travel to VT to see the eclipse.  I already went out and loaded up on Corona and Blue Moon Beer before the local places run out.  I also have a few boxes of Moon Pies I ordered on Amazon.

[TheRex]

6 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I have been reading several online forums relative to the eclipse. There are many accounts that speak to both sides of our "coin". 

Some went and spent time in an area forecast to be totally clear - only to have last minute cloudiness mute the experience 

Some went and spent time in "iffy" areas (some even with clouds right up to the event) - and were pleasantly surprised when the sun appeared and put on the show

Some even speak of when the clouds came in "high" and negated the need to use special glasses - they could see the event without them, from start to finish 😮 

Euro Ens have median 10.5 hours sunlight for where I'll be. Latest GFS looks even better - the midWest longwave is weaker and slower at 6z. 

My main hope is that it's relatively warm that day. We'll be at an outdoor venue for an hours long "party" and I'd hate to have to go back to the car to warm up on the regular. 

My main hope is that I don't have to pull out the snow blower that morning to clear the driveway before my guests arrive.  

[Undertakerson2.0]

2 hours ago, TheRex said:

I saw a map a few months ago that showed historically my area in VT had the highest possibility in the US of being cloudy on April 8.  It would be something if our area ended up having some of the nicer weather for the event.  I don't think my local infrastructure could handle an extra influx of tourists if people decided to travel to VT to see the eclipse.  I already went out and loaded up on Corona and Blue Moon Beer before the local places run out.  I also have a few boxes of Moon Pies I ordered on Amazon.

I would imagine that the price spikes and general lack of available rooms in the regions we plan to be in, will reduce the number of "chasers". It's kind of no room at the inn as is. And if you can find a room, prepare to pay 3-4X or more. 

I anticipate being in a crowd the likes of which I haven't seen since our days of tailgating NASCAR races (1988-1998). Some of those Charlotte Raceway and Pocono parties were literal throngs of people. (we went primarily for the tailgate moreso than attending the race per se) . Hopefully will be much more reverent and "cool" (or chill, one might say?) during the peak of the event. 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Fingers crossed 

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I would imagine that the price spikes and general lack of available rooms in the regions we plan to be in, will reduce the number of "chasers". It's kind of no room at the inn as is. And if you can find a room, prepare to pay 3-4X or more. 

I anticipate being in a crowd the likes of which I haven't seen since our days of tailgating NASCAR races (1988-1998). Some of those Charlotte Raceway and Pocono parties were literal throngs of people. (we went primarily for the tailgate moreso than attending the race per se) . Hopefully will be much more reverent and "cool" (or chill, one might say?) during the peak of the event. 

 

Speaking of racing, the Indianapolis Motor Speedway is open to the public for the eclipse.  That place can seat 250k.  Between that and the general draw that the Indianapolis area will be for eclipse chasers, I can't imagine what traffic will be like getting out of there.  It's pretty congested on race days but this will take it to another level.  

[MaineJay]

My destination is pretty rural, more moose than people. I'm very unsure of how many people will be heading in my direction.  My guess is that folks on the highway are more likely to head to the Millinocket area and north, as it's closer to major roads.  

 I'll be on smaller, state routes, so I have no idea what to expect.  Are there a lot of "chasers" that are prepared to relocate at the last minute?  Wouldn't take a lot to clog up the roads, but it's a pain in the ass to get there for most folks.

  The plan is to load the kids up by 8:00, and be at my destination by 11.   

And this feels too good to be true.

[Rush]

2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

 

And this feels too good to be true.

 

I just have to keep reminding myself how many snowstorms the models give me at 240 hours and how many I actually get.   

[Undertakerson2.0]

CPC Prob Hzrds Discussion 4/6-4/12

 

Return flow off the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to develop early in the period and persist through much of week-2. The associated frontal systems from the lee cyclogenesis discussed above may help to initiate chances for heavy precipitation in parts of the central CONUS. The ECENS PET and raw guidance has shifted westward today relative to yesterday and there are stronger chances for precipitation to approach an inch further north through much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley. The raw GEFS is also supportive of heavy precipitation near and along much of the Mississippi Valley. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for much of the Mississippi Valley, eastern portions of the Plains, and the western Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and Southeast for Apr 7-11.

[TheRex]

22 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

My destination is pretty rural, more moose than people. I'm very unsure of how many people will be heading in my direction.  My guess is that folks on the highway are more likely to head to the Millinocket area and north, as it's closer to major roads.  

 I'll be on smaller, state routes, so I have no idea what to expect.  Are there a lot of "chasers" that are prepared to relocate at the last minute?  Wouldn't take a lot to clog up the roads, but it's a pain in the ass to get there for most folks.

  The plan is to load the kids up by 8:00, and be at my destination by 11.   

And this feels too good to be true.

We have the interstate to get people here easily from Boston but then local roads won't be able to handle the traffic.  I think our area is one of the closest for someone driving up from NYC if they don't stop in the Adirondacks.  Coming up from NYC to this area means a lot of two lane road traffic that can be backed up for miles at the start of a three day weekend when the skiing is good in the winter.  I hope it doesn't turn into one of those scenarios that they talk about in 25 years on the news as a reminder on this date in 2024 a 50 mile traffic jam ran from Burlington, VT to Ticonderoga, NY and the national guard was called up to bring food and gas to those stuck in the traffic.

I have some friends coming up and I don't think they realize it could be a big mess up here.  I don't want to scare them but I could see where there could be traffic issues well south of here that could major backups and cause a 1 hour trip to take several hours.  I'm glad I don't have to leave my property that day.

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, TheRex said:

We have the interstate to get people here easily from Boston but then local roads won't be able to handle the traffic.  I think our area is one of the closest for someone driving up from NYC if they don't stop in the Adirondacks.  Coming up from NYC to this area means a lot of two lane road traffic that can be backed up for miles at the start of a three day weekend when the skiing is good in the winter.  I hope it doesn't turn into one of those scenarios that they talk about in 25 years on the news as a reminder on this date in 2024 a 50 mile traffic jam ran from Burlington, VT to Ticonderoga, NY and the national guard was called up to bring food and gas to those stuck in the traffic.

I have some friends coming up and I don't think they realize it could be a big mess up here.  I don't want to scare them but I could see where there could be traffic issues well south of here that could major backups and cause a 1 hour trip to take several hours.  I'm glad I don't have to leave my property that day.

The closet analog for this area is probably the Phish shows in northern Maine late 90s early oughts.  Traffic on 95 was pretty epic.  This will at least spread folks out.  I'm cautiously optimistic folks won't think to go where I'm going. Sugarloaf is nearby, know a few folks heading there.

[Undertakerson2.0]

9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

CPC Prob Hzrds Discussion 4/6-4/12

 

Return flow off the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to develop early in the period and persist through much of week-2. The associated frontal systems from the lee cyclogenesis discussed above may help to initiate chances for heavy precipitation in parts of the central CONUS. The ECENS PET and raw guidance has shifted westward today relative to yesterday and there are stronger chances for precipitation to approach an inch further north through much of the Plains and Mississippi Valley. The raw GEFS is also supportive of heavy precipitation near and along much of the Mississippi Valley. Therefore, a slight risk of heavy precipitation is posted for much of the Mississippi Valley, eastern portions of the Plains, and the western Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and Southeast for Apr 7-11.

With this kind of outlook, I'd expect there is already some serious consideration among those who plan to "go with the flow" - trying what they will to secure a spot in the more favoured regions. Chasing shadows if you will. Even though we have lodging confirmed and a party ticket securing our attendance, PLUS we'e staying in place at least one day afterwards - I'm still thinking of taking our portable "comfort chamber" just in case of traffic jams. (we have an enclosure for privacy, of course).  Then again, Mrs. UTS is made of tough stock and won't mind if we have to rough it - the country side is mostly forested and very rural - so that may be over doing it a bit. 

[FortySixAnd32]

12 hours ago, Hiramite said:

Rarely is there such and event in one's life, especially for us weather folks, that involves so much anticipation and anxiety at the same time as a Total Solar Eclipse. This thread is to monitor the weather (assess the threat of clouds) for the next 10 days along the eclipse's path.  Good luck viewing.

 

If you didn't already know, there has been an ongoing thread in the Space section that has general eclipse info.....

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/352-april-8-2024-total-solar-eclipse/

 

Great topic!!! Thank you!!! Did you get those highlighters I sent you?? 😉

[telejunkie]

I'm indecisive on what i'm going to do. My kids are with their mom and they've rented a place in the path of totality (schools here are closed for it btw). A local buddy is hosting a party...but we're not getting totality here. Feeling compelled to head north to see it...but definitely a little worried about traffic.

For all the hype about it...I assumed we'd have a dark and dreary day, but stars are seeming to align here (sad pun intended).

[Hoosier]

After having a terrible traffic experience after the 2017 eclipse in southern Illinois (normally 5 hr drive took 16 hours to get home) and if you need to get home the same night, I'm thinking it may help to play it one of two ways...

1) get the f*ck out of the area immediately after totality ends.  Not 30 minutes later.  Not 15 minutes later, but right when it ends.  Be ready to hop in the car and go.

2) wait around for a few hours after totality ends, which may help traffic to start dispersing.

The in-between play of departing a little while after totality ended in 2017 really screwed me, so not doing that again.  Gonna roll the dice with one of the other 2 options and hope for the best.  Goes without saying that it may be wise to try to find alternate routes, but I gotta say that it didn't matter what I tried last time... interstates, state roads, county roads were all jammed.  Probably didn't help that there were a few accidents as well as some road construction along the way.

Edited March 29 by Hoosier

[StormfanaticInd]

Starting feel better about just enough clearing.  

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Oh man, can we muster up this from the cmc (only out to 12z until tonight's run)

Edited March 30 by Ohiobuckeye45