Neoncyclone Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 10 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Trend or hiccup? I wouldn't rely too much on just the STP, one of the reasons it shows weaker STP is because there are actually more storms in the vicinity taking advantage of those ingredients, that's what all the voids that pop up in the warm sector are. Moisture is still there, and the directional shear doesn't look quite as impressive as before, but still plenty to set the stage for a significant severe event. Right now, I'd say a slight shift south and farther west into Indiana for the moderate by next outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: I wouldn't rely too much on just the STP, one of the reasons it shows weaker STP is because there are actually more storms in the vicinity taking advantage of those ingredients, that's what all the voids that pop up in the warm sector are. Moisture is still there, and the directional shear doesn't look quite as impressive as before, but still plenty to set the stage for a significant severe event. Right now, I'd say a slight shift south and farther west into Indiana for the moderate by next outlook. Yeah HRRR that @snowlover2 posted looks sloppy, which I’m cool with. I don’t like seeing the threat shift anywhere tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Quarter sized hail in Ohio tonight even in the cool sector so I can just see how this might go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Finally getting a nice line of storms now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) what I think is most important is that multiple convective lines will happen, over a large area, down to Mississippi tomorrow. Here is the HRRR for 22z. Every area will have a chance of supercells. Although I must say that the 12km NAM doesn't have much instability for northern Ohio. Edited April 2 by Chinook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 2 Meteorologist Share Posted April 2 (edited) HREF mean STP is down from 12z, but this big of an area of 2-4 STP with 4-6 embedded within, that's still a big deal... especially when it overlaps with multiple strong UH tracks. Edited April 2 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 16 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: HREF mean STP is down from 12z, but this big of an area of 2-4 STP with 4-6 embedded within, that's still a big deal... especially when it overlaps with multiple UH tracks. Hope it keeps decreasing. Don’t like the fact that UH Track over butler and Warren county goes right over my house 🙃 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Chinook said: what I think is most important is that multiple convective lines will happen, over a large area, down to Mississippi tomorrow. Here is the HRRR for 22z. Every area will have a chance of supercells. Although I must say that the 12km NAM doesn't have much instability for northern Ohio. I would think the stalling of the front would definitely inhibit the parameters this far north anyways. Edited April 2 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 2 Meteorologist Share Posted April 2 (edited) 14 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Don’t like the fact that UH Track over butler and Warren county goes right over my house 🙃 PSA (not directed at you necessarily)... don't take comfort or discomfort in any UH track that a model shows. Models won't get it exactly right this far out, and details regarding the environment will become far more clear when the sun rises tomorrow. Still a guessing game at this point. Edited April 2 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Definitely on the ground with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 PDS warning north of Springfield, MO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Looks bad for Fair Grove population of a little over 1500 😕 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Not talked about a ton here but the amount of precipitation with this storm complex is bonkers. The storm approaching Ohio started in Indiana and has taken almost 4 hours to cross the state and there’s rain all the way back to the Illinois Missouri border. Incredible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 (edited) Hmm I may have missed something but I don't think a PDS warning was needed there. Looked like a brief QLCS spin up. Edited April 2 by ElectricStorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Reed is on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Some interesting storms bubbling up in S IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) All the radars are down. Talk about bad timing 😡 Edited April 2 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 They need to get this fixed asap! We are flying blind out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 This is a potential disaster in the making if they don't get these radars online today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Warning SW of Dayton just tagged tornado possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Warning SW of Dayton just tagged tornado possible. I’ll be watching it roll through Lebanon here shortly. Pretty constant lightning im seeing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Nice MCS rolling through. Good Lightning. Not much wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, junior said: Nice MCS rolling through. Good Lightning. Not much wind. Getting pretty good wind here so it’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 This first round seems to be precursor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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