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March 21-April 3, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak


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17 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The supercell south of Jefferson City, MO is starting to look pretty nasty.

Screenshot_20240401_181651_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.34d81d333f6ace3a74fac4501ff3ae19.jpg

Screenshot_20240401_181656_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.6dc5cceea5940619c29228a4f528a915.jpg

EDIT: Roughly 20 seconds later and we've got a tornado warning lol

Screenshot_20240401_181827_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.5a7c11bb3ee6fec41ba21b1d369f0e5b.jpg

And now 3 warned. 

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17 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The supercell south of Jefferson City, MO is starting to look pretty nasty.

Screenshot_20240401_181651_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.34d81d333f6ace3a74fac4501ff3ae19.jpg

Screenshot_20240401_181656_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.6dc5cceea5940619c29228a4f528a915.jpg

EDIT: Roughly 20 seconds later and we've got a tornado warning lol

Screenshot_20240401_181827_RadarScope.thumb.jpg.5a7c11bb3ee6fec41ba21b1d369f0e5b.jpg

The storm that's closer to St Louis now has tornado warning: Chesterfield

chesterfield MO.jpg

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Areas north of OKC getting all the action so far. Nothing for me so far except for 1 distant thunder a couple hours ago. That being said, the HRRR has another round moving through around 10pm tonight, so maybe there is still some hope. 

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image.thumb.png.ff12a3cd02c5cb7ea6c07d061500b9b6.png

Quote
   Mesoscale Discussion 0329
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Missouri across Illinois and into far
   southwest Indiana.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

   Valid 012345Z - 020115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

   SUMMARY...Training supercells will continue along a warm front from
   eastern Missouri to far western Indiana this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A mature supercell is moving through the northern St.
   Louis suburbs with another supercell east of Jefferson City. Thus
   far, the maximum hail size with these storms has been golf ball
   sized, but even larger hail is possible, especially as the low-level
   jet strengthens this evening. A vorticity rich environment along
   this warm front will support a tornado threat through the evening
   with the WoFs suggesting a narrow corridor of 2 STP along the front.
   WoFs 0-2km UH probabilities suggest the lead supercell will continue
   to support a tornado threat for the next several hours with peak
   probabilities in south-central Illinois.

   ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024

 

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Confirmed.

Quote
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
725 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

OKC113-020100-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-240402T0100Z/
Osage OK-
725 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY...

At 725 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 3 miles south of
Wynona, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations in or near the path include...
Skiatook...                       Hominy...
Barnsdall...                      Wynona...
Avant...                          Pershing...
Nelagoney...                      Tallant...
Wolco...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3658 9600 3637 9601 3636 9642 3654 9648
      3675 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 252DEG 38KT 3650 9632

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

 

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Here's the MD for said watch. They said trends will be watched later for possible upgrade to tornado watch.

Quote
  Mesoscale Discussion 0330
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0737 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Areas affected...southern Indiana into southwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 020037Z - 020200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to
   increase this evening and overnight with a primary threat for large
   hail and damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is increasing across central
   Illinois with these storms eventually moving into Indiana later this
   evening. Additional development is likely farther east into Indiana
   and Ohio. Most of these storms will likely remain north of the warm
   front where storms will predominantly be elevated with a threat for
   large hail and isolated wind gusts. The 00Z ILN RAOB shows shear
   which will support supercells and a threat for large hail and
   potentially some very large hail. 

   Initially the tornado threat should remain limited given the
   majority of storms should be north of the warm front. However, after
   midnight, storms are expected to develop/move into areas south of
   the warm front where the tornado threat will be greater. A severe
   thunderstorm watch will be issued for the initial threat and trends
   will be monitored if a tornado watch is needed for the activity
   later tonight.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 04/02/2024

 

mcd0330.png

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Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 69
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   840 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central Indiana
     Southwest Ohio

   * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 840 PM
     until 300 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
   watch area through the evening, along a surface front.  The
   strongest cells will pose a risk of hail and perhaps damaging winds.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
   statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Terre
   Haute IN to 10 miles south southeast of Dayton OH. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66...WW
   67...WW 68...

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
   26030.

   ...Hart

 

ww0069_radar.gif

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  • Meteorologist

Wow... looking really nasty in Ohio tomorrow. Hope the morning showers/storms stick around into the early afternoon for the sake of everyone. I'll be off tomorrow so I'll be able to watch with you all most of the day.

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  • Admin

I caved and bought my youngest an air mattress for our room. He came in last night with thunder that shook the house. Looking to my west.. I’m darn glad I did.

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