March 21-April 3, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak

[NWOhioChaser]

Pretty alarming upgrade there for tomorrow…has potential if enough destabilization occurs. Already sending the warnings out on my social.

[cperry29]

Not quite as extreme for Ohio as 12z HRRR. Hoping others follow suit.

[StormfanaticInd]

6 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

Not quite as extreme for Ohio as 12z HRRR. Hoping others follow suit.

Still very bad though in the grand scheme of things especially considering the dynamics at play

[cperry29]

Just now, StormfanaticInd said:

Still very bad though in the grand scheme of things especially considering the dynamics at play

Yeah for sure! I’m looking for optimism lol.

[StormfanaticInd]

Just now, cperry29 said:

Yeah for sure! I’m looking for optimism lol.

Hopefully this system can calm down lol

[ElectricStorm]

The 12z HRRR run was absurd, like borderline 30# absurd. Hopefully we don't see any more runs like that. 18z still looks potent but more realistic imo 

[OxfordOh_]

[OxfordOh_]

Possible tornado tag

[JayPSU]

26 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said:

Still looks pretty rough unfortunately and maybe two rounds of severe weather? 

I know, I just meant it didn’t look like the insane cataclysm that the 12Z run showed.  This looks more normal…still a threat but not as certain to be terrible for as many people.

[OxfordOh_]

1 minute ago, JayPSU said:

I know, I just meant it didn’t look like the insane cataclysm that the 12Z run showed.  This looks more normal…still a threat but not as certain to be terrible for as many people.

Yeah 12z was insane let’s hope a downward trend continues!

[OxfordOh_]

Quite the write up for ILN

[BuckeyeGal]

[ak9971]

NAM 3k looks very much linear compared to the HRRR. Might be a now cast situation tomorrow with all the variables of morning convection, storm mode, and timing in play.

[Undertakerson2.0]

I snipped this from FB page of one Jim Sullivan of NWS Cleveland. Jim was, at one time, Accuweather Poster of the Year in their forums waaay back longer ago than I can remember exactly. Obv, he did, as he said he would, become a forecast pro met with NWS, He does not post weather on his FB very often - so for him to do so in this instance, is noteworthy

[junior]

Let’s see how quick the atmosphere recovers from the morning mess. I knew this risk would pop as the models trended more NW and stronger with the slp. 

[ElectricStorm]

 

 

[ElectricStorm]

Spoiler

Mesoscale Discussion 0325

   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

   0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

 

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of

   central Illinois

 

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

 

   Valid 012050Z - 012245Z

 

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

 

   SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as

   additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central

   Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and

   damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this

   evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary.

 

   DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have

   occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest

   that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the

   next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly

   supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and

   low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds

   increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution

   of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered.

 

   .

.Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024

 

[snowlover2]

2 hours ago, JayPSU said:

Is there no chance the rain overnight and tomorrow morning stabilizes the atmosphere here?  I want no parts of that.

ILN saying robust destabilization after the morning stuff.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
While the large complex of storms will be exiting the ILN FA
around, or slightly after daybreak, the concern for hazardous
weather is far from over.

Bottom line up front: a very concerning signal has evolved with
a parameter space that suggests widespread severe weather, or a
significant severe weather outbreak, may evolve Tuesday
afternoon/evening across the region.

Although the environment will become more stable immediately
behind the MCS during the morning, robust environmental recovery
and modulation is expected into the afternoon as a deepening
sfc low (~998mb to ~990mb) moves from nrn MO into nrn IN. This
will allow for a swift and significant surge of the open warm
sector N of the OH Rvr into far ern IN and WC and central OH and
everywhere in-between (and S) by mid afternoon. This will allow
for incredibly-quick destabilization of the environment with
each passing hour early afternoon, with the nose of a LLJ
impinging to the NE during this time. Quite frankly, it is a
volatile setup for the local area. Already-strong LL and deep-
layer shear will intensify into mid/late afternoon, with sfc-1km
SRH exceeding 300m2/s2 and storm inflow SRH exceeding
400-450m2/s2. Long-curved hodographs amidst environments with
SBCAPE exceeding 2000J/kg suggests a very concerning (high-end
severe) environment, especially if cells can remain discrete
along/ahead of the advancing front. CI may begin as early as 2
PM across far wrn IN before expanding/blossoming to the E and
into the local area as early as 3 PM. While there are some
indications of more clustering with embedded supercells (opposed
to firmly-discrete supercells), even this scenario will bring
with it the potential for all hazards, including large to very
large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The
parameter space suggests a few strong to intense long-track
tornadoes may be possible late afternoon into early evening,
with the threat shifting W to E between 3 PM and 9 PM across the
heart of the ILN FA.

There are still a few uncertainties in /just/ how far N the warm
sector will make it, but the trends in the latest guidance
suggest it will have no issue making it N of I-70 by 18z-20z.
There will be a sharp cutoff in the potential for significant
severe storms on the nrn fringes of the warm sector, which
should orient itself W-E across the nrn third of IN/OH by late
afternoon.

With all of this being said, we absolutely concur with the
upgrade to a MOD risk for the majority of the ILN FA for Tuesday
afternoon/evening, with a significant severe weather outbreak
possible across the local area.

This is a day to be weather-aware. This is a day to know your
plan and be prepared to act when warning are issued.

 

[Hoosier]

50 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

 

 

Crazy that it's been that long for Ohio.  Of course there have probably been some severe events since 2013 that would've warranted a 15% tornado area in hindsight...

[Hoosier]

I really don't see atmospheric recovery being much of a problem tomorrow.  Typically these scenarios with strong low level flow/rapidly deepening system result in pretty rapid northward destabilization after any convection earlier in the day.  I don't think instability will be lacking, so it will come down to smaller scale nuances as far as what magnitude this reaches.

[Neoncyclone]

Phew, pretty nasty probabilities on the MO,IL tornado watch. 

Quote

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 68
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   450 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central Illinois
     Eastern Missouri

   * Effective this Monday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon and evening,
   building eastward along a boundary across central Missouri/Illinois.
    Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few
   tornadoes are possible.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Jefferson City
   MO to 35 miles south of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

 

[ElectricStorm]

Current radar isn't looking very convincing for a major severe weather event yet with initiation still holding off and a blob of rain across SW OK. Still think we could see something here but I'm starting to think the bulk of it may end up east of me after dark. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

you can find very clear distinctions on what happens if it stays cloudy/dreary in the afternoon (18z 3km) vs. if it clears up post A.M. rain (12z HRDPS, which is disgusting)

[Ohiobuckeye45]

the RGEM also kinda lingers rain/clouds in the moderate area almost all day

[Hoosier]

The main issue to me on the 18z 3km NAM looks like the more strung out/weaker surface low.  It still manages 1500-2000+ CAPE and would still be a decent severe threat, but not as high-end as other models.