March 21-April 3, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak

[snowlover2]

Just had a damn nice flash and rumble.

[cperry29]

I don’t want anything with “PDS TOR” in my back yard (central OH) Tuesday 🥴

[ElectricStorm]

10 hatched is back, this time for Tulsa and Joplin. Still 30# hail area but expanded quite a bit. If morning models runs look similar to this evenings I think we could see a 45# hail area added. Was back in the Tulsa area for Easter today and if it wasn't for a busy next few days of class I'd probably stay here and see how this plays out. But I guess I'll see we what we end up getting in Norman. 

Looks like April is gonna start off with a bang around here.

Edited April 1 by ElectricStorm

[snowlover2]

Last thing I expected to see was the enhanced practically out of Ohio on the new day 2. 

[Neoncyclone]

I'm skeptical about Tuesday, especially until we see how things go tonight. However, it's really hard to ignore a signal like this, first the NAM, now the HRRR.

Not sure what they were thinking when they made the D2 outlook, but it's not that important. We won't know how serious the threat really is until we see how the system evolves today/tonight.

Edited April 1 by Neoncyclone

[StormfanaticInd]

Tomorrow looks downright scary on the 6z hrrr 😬

[snowlover2]

1 hour ago, Neoncyclone said:

I'm skeptical about Tuesday, especially until we see how things go tonight. However, it's really hard to ignore a signal like this, first the NAM, now the HRRR.

Not sure what they were thinking when they made the D2 outlook, but it's not that important. We won't know how serious the threat really is until we see how the system evolves today/tonight.

Yeah still scratching my head on that one.

[StormfanaticInd]

2 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

I'm skeptical about Tuesday, especially until we see how things go tonight. However, it's really hard to ignore a signal like this, first the NAM, now the HRRR.

Not sure what they were thinking when they made the D2 outlook, but it's not that important. We won't know how serious the threat really is until we see how the system evolves today/tonight.

They kinda dropped the ball on the last outbreak that affected our region to. 

[OxfordOh_]

Talk about some runs sheesh

SE IN 

N of Cincy 

N Ky

[OxfordOh_]

Enhanced shifts mention of possible moderate upgrade 

[Neoncyclone]

12 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said:

Enhanced shifts mention of possible moderate upgrade 

 

Quote

  SPC AC 011245

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

   Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO VALLEY
   REGIONS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening within a
   broad swath from the southern Plains to the lower Missouri and Ohio
   Valley regions.  Tornadoes (a few strong), destructive hail, and
   damaging thunderstorm gusts all are possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   The most important mid/upper-level feature for this forecast will be
   a deep, positively tilted, synoptic-scale trough, initially
   extending from the northern High Plains across UT to northern Baja. 
   Several shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will traverse the
   associated cyclonic flow, as the broader trough shifts eastward.  By
   the end of the period, the synoptic trough should extend from IA
   across KS and the southern High Plains to far west TX and
   northwestern MX.  A lead shortwave perturbation -- evident in
   moisture-channel imagery over the eastern AZ/western NM region and
   southward into adjoining parts of MX -- will eject across the
   southern High Plains today, reaching the TX Panhandle and western OK
   by 00Z.  This feature should proceed northeastward to parts of
   northwestern MO and IA by 12Z tomorrow.

   Surface analysis at 11Z showed a frontal-wave low over central KS,
   with warm front to near a line from SZL-STL-ILN.  The low should
   migrate along the slowly northward-moving warm front to MO by 00Z,
   with cold front southwestward across northwestern OK and the
   northernmost TX Panhandle.  A dryline -- drawn initially from the
   low to the eastern TX Panhandle, near MAF, then southward into
   northern Coahuila -- should shift eastward through the afternoon to
   west-central/southwestern OK, extending southward across the TX Hill
   Country to near LRD.  By 00Z, the warm front -- perhaps modulated on
   the mesoscale by areas of precip -- should extend across northern
   MO, central parts of IL/IN, to southern OH and parts of WV.  A
   secondary low may form near the front/dryline intersection over
   western OK.  By 12Z tomorrow, an elongated low-pressure area, with
   more than one center, is possible from the main frontal inflection
   over northeastern MO to central IN.  The main cold front should
   reach southwestern MO, southeastern OK, northwest TX, and
   southeastern NM.  To its southeast, a Pacific front should overtake
   the dryline this evening and overnight, reaching western AR, the
   Arklatex, east TX, and parts of deep south TX by the end of the
   period.

   ...Southeastern KS and western Ozarks to central TX...
   Scattered (OK/KS) to isolated (central TX) thunderstorms are
   expected to develop this afternoon along/ahead of the dryline and
   front, quickly becoming severe with all hazards possible.  The hail
   threat will be greatest during the first few hours, while tornado
   potential ramps into a probable early-evening peak.  Severe
   downdraft gusts also are possible, given the strong available
   buoyancy and fast cell motions expected.

   By late afternoon, much of OK and southeastern KS will reside under
   the left-exit region of a cyclonically curving jet streak, above
   strong low-level moisture transport accompanying a 50-65-kt LLJ.
   Initiation is expected as large-scale ascent preceding the lead
   shortwave starts to impinge upon a favorably heated dryline and
   moist sector, and the basal EML capping layer erodes.  This may
   occur earlier over the northern OK/KS part of the outlook near the
   front.  The environment will be favorable for frequent large hail
   and occasional significant to giant hailstones from any sustained
   supercells.  MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is possible, amidst 60-75 kt
   effective-shear magnitudes.  Forecast soundings indicate abundant
   inflow-layer moisture content to supply the updrafts, long
   hodographs commonly associated with significant hail (from right- or
   left-moving storms), as well as significant to giant hail in both
   historic analog soundings and a 2D hail-model.

   Though convective coverage may become densest north of the Red
   River, the potential for longer-lasting discrete modes near and
   south of the Red River conditionally favor isolated extreme hail
   sizes even into north TX.  Given mesoscale uncertainties and
   inconsistent convection-allowing model signals regarding initiation
   timing (which influences what low-level shear/hodograph space cells
   will enter) and mature storm duration before upscale merging/linear
   evolution occur, will hold hail probabilities at previous levels for
   now.  However, a "hail moderate" may become necessary in this region
   if mesoscale trends and post-12Z/today guidance become better
   focused on timing/density.

   The geometry of the pattern aloft will compel a strong component of
   mid/upper-level flow parallel to the convective alignment,
   encouraging eventual merging, training, and quasi-linear evolution. 
   How long that process will take is uncertain, and the line
   ultimately may backbuild into central TX.  Still, with LLJ-expanded
   hodographs and surface-based inflow parcels available in the
   early/mid evening, tornado potential (some strong) should exist with
   any remaining discrete storms, as well as in embedded QLCS
   mesocirculations.  Severe potential should ramp down late tonight
   (after about 06Z) over this region, but persist longer in the next
   (below).

   ...Lower Missouri Valley to Ohio Valley...
   Multiple episodes of strong-severe thunderstorm development are
   expected this afternoon through tonight, each capable of all severe
   hazards.  The distribution of severe weather over this corridor may
   be quite non-uniform/clustered, as mesoscale convective processes
   and boundaries evolve.  Strong tornadoes may occur over parts of MO
   into central/southern IL while the afternoon/evening CAPE/shear
   parameter space and frontal proximity encourage potential
   development of at least a couple long-lasting supercells.
   Severe to isolated giant hail also is possible, especially from
   discrete supercells the western portion over MO/IL containing
   steepest lapse rates, greatest CAPE, and similarly favorable
   vertical wind profiles as the southern Plains area.

   Moist advection should quickly boost boundary-layer mixing ratios
   and dewpoints today, with surface dewpoints in the 60s common along
   and south of the warm front by midafternoon.  Peak/preconvective
   MLCAPE should reach 2000-2500 J/kg south of the warm front over
   parts of MO/IL/IN, diminishing to  1000-1500 J/kg from the
   northeastern KY/southern OH area eastward.  Effective-shear
   magnitudes should range from near 60 kt over MO to 40-50 kt in
   eastern parts of the outlook.  An MCS may evolve this evening from
   convection over MO and sweep east-northeastward on either side of
   the warm front, reaching parts of IN/OH/northern KY late tonight
   before weakening.  Though moving into an airmass that will be
   stabilizing near the surface -- with time and eastward extent --
   such a complex may have enough forced ascent and downward momentum
   transfer behind that to maintain organized wind-damage potential
   over the Ohio Valley tonight.

   ..Edwards/Leitman.. 04/01/2024

 

"Strong tornadoes may occur over parts of MO
   into central/southern IL while the afternoon/evening CAPE/shear
   parameter space and frontal proximity encourage potential
   development of at least a couple long-lasting supercells.
   Severe to isolated giant hail also is possible"

Not what I wanted to see for my area, mentions of strong tornadoes and severe to possibly giant hail for central/southern Illinois.

 

[OxfordOh_]

10 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

 

 

"Strong tornadoes may occur over parts of MO
   into central/southern IL while the afternoon/evening CAPE/shear
   parameter space and frontal proximity encourage potential
   development of at least a couple long-lasting supercells.
   Severe to isolated giant hail also is possible"

Not what I wanted to see for my area, mentions of strong tornadoes and severe to possibly giant hail for central/southern Illinois.

 

Be safe today!! Hope the worst of it stays away! lol 

[OxfordOh_]

Hasn’t fully loaded yet but wow…

[Neoncyclone]

12 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said:

Hasn’t fully loaded yet but wow…

Yeah, that's ridiculous. I pulled a sounding from W Ohio, and there's not much you could do to it to make it more favorable for strong tornadoes. Still, I feel we need to get through tonight's storms before we can trust what models throw our way. If 12z HRRR did verify it would definitely be moderate worthy at least.

Edited April 1 by Neoncyclone

[OxfordOh_]

5 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

Yeah, that's ridiculous. I pulled a sounding from W Ohio, and there's not much you could do to it to make it more favorable for strong tornadoes. Still, I feel we need to get through tonight's storms before we can trust what models through our way. If 12z HRRR did verify it would definitely be moderate worthy at least.

Insanely high parameters but 100% agree let’s see how tonight plays out before anything definitely has me on edge a bit more now though! 

[Neoncyclone]

The NSSL MPAS models show a potential failure mode for tomorrow for Ohio, as an MCS forms overnight and stabilizes the atmosphere, with there not being enough time for destabilization afterwards. 

Of course the last event wasn't forecasted well ahead of time because of rapid destabilization, so even with an MCS, can't rule that out. 

 

Edited April 1 by Neoncyclone

[OxfordOh_]

6 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The NSSL MPAS models show a potential failure mode for tomorrow for Ohio, as an MCS forms overnight and stabilizes the atmosphere, with there not being enough time for destabilization afterwards. 

Of course the last event wasn't forecasted well ahead of time because of rapid destabilization, so even with an MCS, can't rule that out. 

 

That’s the biggest question I think we will see! May be more of a now cast situation unfortunately however there’s just no way to ignore these parameters especially if they continue tonight.😳

[snowlover2]

26 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said:

Insanely high parameters but 100% agree let’s see how tonight plays out before anything definitely has me on edge a bit more now though! 

Man that’s crazy. Whoever does the day 2 update at 1:30 doesn’t shift the enhanced north into more of IN/OH at the very least should be taken out back and shot.

[OxfordOh_]

4 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Man that’s crazy. Whoever does the day 2 update at 1:30 doesn’t shift the enhanced north into more of IN/OH at the very least should be taken out back and shot.

No question about it. If the models continue moderate risk possible? 👀

[ak9971]

25 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The NSSL MPAS models show a potential failure mode for tomorrow for Ohio, as an MCS forms overnight and stabilizes the atmosphere, with there not being enough time for destabilization afterwards. 

Of course the last event wasn't forecasted well ahead of time because of rapid destabilization, so even with an MCS, can't rule that out. 

 

Looks like HRRR has a similar event in the morning, but the evening convection really takes off compared to the NSSL model. Insane line of supercells on the long range HRRR for Indiana and Ohio in the afternoon early evening time frame. I'd have to imagine they will shift northward on the update but won't make too many significant changes considering the failure mode does exist.

[NWOhioChaser]

7 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Last thing I expected to see was the enhanced practically out of Ohio on the new day 2. 

My bet is the will reintroduce the enhanced into Ohio sometime in the morning. 

[NWOhioChaser]

51 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said:

The NSSL MPAS models show a potential failure mode for tomorrow for Ohio, as an MCS forms overnight and stabilizes the atmosphere, with there not being enough time for destabilization afterwards. 

Of course the last event wasn't forecasted well ahead of time because of rapid destabilization, so even with an MCS, can't rule that out. 

 

Always a good possibility of that occurring as well. Convective debris and stabilization usually occurs with the morning storms that pass through. At least in my part of the state. 
 

Just really depends how today/tonight unfolds. 

Edited April 1 by NWOhioChaser

[ak9971]

3 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Always a good possibility of that occurring as well. Convective debris and stabilization usually occurs with the morning storms that pass through. At least in my part of the state. 
 

Just really depends how today/tonight unfolds. 

I've seen it happen many a time around here. Hope it happens with the parameters in play and we get a smaller event.

[voltwaffle]

Central OK is probably going to be hampered by the cloud cover. Maybe it'll clear out but I kinda have my doubts.

[NWOhioChaser]

3 minutes ago, ak9971 said:

I've seen it happen many a time around here. Hope it happens with the parameters in play and we get a smaller event.

Yeah, last event we had that clearing for just a few hours and it didn’t take any time at all for the storms to tap into that energy. And we all know how that played out…