March 21-April 3, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak

[snowlover2]

Quote

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 63
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   445 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central and east central Ohio
     Northern West Virginia and the northern West Virginia Panhandle

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing in central Ohio and
   will spread east-southeastward through late evening.  A couple of
   supercells are expected with the potential to produce large hail up
   to 1.5 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
   statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
   northwest of Columbus OH to 10 miles south southeast of Wheeling WV.
   For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
   outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
   30040.

   ...Thompson

 

[BuckeyeGal]

Currently sitting in the car with 1” hail. 🤦🏽‍♀️

[FortySixAnd32]

1 hour ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Currently sitting in the car with 1” hail. 🤦🏽‍♀️

Everything ok? 

[OxfordOh_]

Just seen a funnel cloud was reported gonna look around see if anyone got photos! Also this storm looks like one to watch in West Virginia 👀

[ElectricStorm]

As of now I think Tuesday is looking much more dangerous for tornadoes than Monday is. I expect an enhanced risk for the next Day 3 outlook for parts of the Ohio Valley. We'll probably still see a couple tornadoes on Monday but right now models are supporting more of a wind/hail threat. 

Need to watch CAMs for any uptrends though. Right now I'd probably go with 30% hatch wind, 30% hatch hail and 5% tornado areas on the Day 2 outlook. Possible upgrade to 10% tor along the warm front in MO. 

[snowlover2]

3 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

As of now I think Tuesday is looking much more dangerous for tornadoes than Monday is. I expect an enhanced risk for the next Day 3 outlook for parts of the Ohio Valley. We'll probably still see a couple tornadoes on Monday but right now models are supporting more of a wind/hail threat. 

Need to watch CAMs for any uptrends though. Right now I'd probably go with 30% hatch wind, 30% hatch hail and 5% tornado areas on the Day 2 outlook. Possible upgrade to 10% tor along the warm front in MO. 

Right about the day 2 but they already have a 10% hatched tornado area.

[ElectricStorm]

3 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Right about the day 2 but they already have a 10% hatched tornado area.

Yeah a little surprised they already went 10 hatched this early but that's certainly the more favorable corridor for tornadoes. Definitely not surprised on the 30 hatched hail area though. Honestly wouldn't even rule out a 45 hatched hail area in later outlooks but they'll probably wait until the day of to make that call. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Tuesday is starting to get interesting 

[StormfanaticInd]

Man this is really starting to look like a high impact storm system 😳 

 

Edited March 31 by StormfanaticInd

[StormfanaticInd]

Even snow lol

[ElectricStorm]

10# tor area removed which looks like the right call. Rest of the outlook is the same 

[cloudy_jake]

On top of the severe weather potential flood watch up for 2-4 inches of rain locally higher totals possible. 

Flood Watch

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

107 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-099-100-OHZ042-051>056-

060>065-070>074-077>082-088-010115-

/O.CON.KILN.FA.A.0001.240401T1800Z-240403T0000Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-

Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-

Bracken-Mason-Lewis-Darke-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-

Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-

Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-

Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-

Including the cities of West College Corner, Piqua, Bright,

Chillicothe, Wheelersburg, Dillsboro, Covington, Erlanger,

Kettering, Fort Thomas, Wilmington, Hamilton, Rising Sun, Mason,

Greenfield, Springfield, Winchester, Bellevue, Lawrenceburg,

Osgood, Downtown Columbus, Vanceburg, Oxford, Troy, Newport,

Milford, Hidden Valley, Mulberry, Blanchester, Landen, Pike Lake,

Highland Heights, Dayton, Xenia, Warsaw, Vevay, Peebles,

Falmouth, Florence, Georgetown, Fairborn, Brookville, Seaman,

Batesville, Newark, Carrollton, Camden, Greendale, Logan, London,

Franklin, Camp Dix, Lancaster, Alexandria, Richmond, Versailles,

Owenton, Summerside, Mount Orab, Brooksville, West Jefferson,

Springboro, Pickerington, Dry Ridge, Piketon, Mount Repose, West

Union, Hillsboro, Middletown, Day Heights, Ripley, Maysville,

Aurora, Burlington, Circleville, Greenville, Oakbrook, Fairfield,

Portsmouth, Tollesboro, Connersville, Butler, Beavercreek,

Liberty, Augusta, Washington Court House, Lebanon, Urbana, Eaton,

Independence, Aberdeen, Waverly, Crittenden, Manchester, Mount

Carmel, Milan, Plain City, Downtown Dayton, Head Of Grassy, Tipp

City, Withamsville, Williamstown, and Downtown Cincinnati

107 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be

  possible.

* WHERE...The following counties in Indiana, Dearborn, Fayette,

  Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland, Union and Wayne. The

  following counties in Kentucky, Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll,

  Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, Lewis, Mason, Owen and Pendleton. The

  following counties in Ohio, Adams, Brown, Butler, Champaign,

  Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin,

  Greene, Hamilton, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Miami,

  Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto and Warren.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,

  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected through

    Tuesday evening. Each round of storms will have the potential

    to produce heavy rain, with a cumulative effect evolving to

    create increasing potential for excessive runoff with each

    successive round of storms. The main time frame for heavy

    rain and flooding will likely be Monday evening through

    Tuesday morning. Total rainfall through Tuesday evening will

    likely be 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts

    possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People in the watch area, especially those living in areas prone to

flooding, should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Monitor the latest forecasts and be alert for possible flood

warnings.

[snowlover2]

18z NAM with a pretty significant north/west shift in temps ,dews, and instability. If 0z is similar they would like need to shift that day 3 enhanced farther north/west on the new day 2 tonight.

[snowlover2]

ILN basically put out a novel concerning the next 3 days.

Quote

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
313 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled out frontal boundary will remain across the Ohio
Valley through Tuesday. This will lead to periods of showers
and thunderstorms through the first part of this week. Some
heavy rain and strong storms may be possible, especially Monday
night into Tuesday. A mix of rain and snow showers will be
possible Wednesday with breezy conditions. Below normal
temperatures are expected midweek and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The ILN FA finds itself in a somewhat rare, and much-appreciated,
lull early this afternoon as some breaks in the cloud cover have
emerged, especially near the I-70 corridor (away from areas that
received appreciable rainfall earlier this morning). Temps are
generally ranging from the mid 60s in the sunshine to the upper
50s where clouds have been a bit more persistent, with a late-
day rally to around 70 degrees possible for extreme srn parts
of the local area in Carroll/Owen/Grant/Pendleton/Robertson
counties if clouds can break by late in the afternoon. However,
this is approximately where the front has draped itself, so
prevailing thoughts are that these areas may see clouds hang
around a bit longer through the rest of the daytime.

Attention late afternoon into early evening will turn to the
enhancing of the LLJ in the wrn OH Vly, which will spread E with
time into the local area by/after sunset, bringing with it a
rapid uptick in moisture and mass convergence once again. A weak
sfc wave will ride along the pivoting frontal boundary, which
will gradually nudge back to the N this evening/overnight,
positioning itself nearly parallel to, and perhaps just S of,
the I-70 corridor for late evening into overnight. This
boundary will provide a focus for reinvigorated LL convergence,
allowing for widespread SHRA to redevelop once again, especially
near the I-70 corridor. While model soundings show rather
meager deep-layer instby (especially in the layer cold enough to
generate lightning), some embedded thunder may be possible,
with small hail as well, especially in EC IN and WC OH this
evening.

As we progress later through the overnight, the widespread SHRA,
with ISO/SCT embedded TS, will generally move W-E, with
individual elements gradually shifting back to the SE with time.
Anytime the steering-layer flow lines up nearly parallel to the
source of forcing or lift (as is the case tonight), the
potential for heavy rain usually follows. This being said,
despite the forcing and LL convergence which will undoubtedly
sustain activity for an extended period of time, there is not a
great deal of LL or deep-layer instby in this environment,
suggesting that rain rates may not be high enough to cause much
of a concern for hydro issues. This is especially the case
considering the relatively dry antecedent conditions, with
rainfall in this corridor generally expected to be on the order
of 1-1.25" through tonight. Do feel like we are still in a good
position to be able to absorb this rainfall without more than
perhaps just an ISO instance of runoff issues or /brief/ high
water in low-lying locales. But do feel like the overall setup
for tonight is one characterized more by repeated steady
moderate rain with embedded thunder than necessarily a flooding
scenario.

The activity will begin to shift to the SE once again late
tonight toward daybreak Monday, eventually drifting to near the
OH Rvr after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of one, or multiple convective complexes will be
sagging to the SE near the OH Rvr around/after daybreak Monday,
eventually once again laying out the much-talked-about boundary
in a WNW- ESE orientation squarely across the srn third of the
ILN FA. Drier conditions should evolve through mid morning/early
afternoon for spots close to the OH Rvr, with SHRA activity
persisting in a scatter fashion in srn OH and N KY.

A stronger S/W ejecting to the ENE around the periphery of the
midlevel high centered over the Gulf will move into the wrn OH
Vly by Monday afternoon. This will, once again, cause a
tightening of the LL baroclinic zone as it yet again begins to
pivot back to the N. While there are undoubtedly uncertainties
in regards to just how far N this boundary moves back N during
the daytime before another round of storms move in from the W,
the pool of better LL instby from which to draw from will be
increasingly near the front itself. Therefore, as the front
nudges N, so too should the better instby, potentially to near,
or just N of, the OH Rvr by mid/late afternoon as widespread
forcing and lift arrive from the W. This will prompt additional
convective complexes to ride WNW to ESE through the OH Vly, the
srn fringe of which will provide the greatest concern as it may
be able to tap into the pool of better LL thermodynamics. Any
line segment or cells on the srn fringes of any convective
complex that is able to orient itself more N-S (and thus more
perpendicular to the 35-40kts of nearly- westerly LL bulk shear
vectors) will pose the greatest potential for strong/damaging
wind gusts, especially late afternoon through the evening. Do
think that the /most/ favored corridor for this will be from SE
IN (Fayette/Union Cos IN) into south- central OH (Pike Co OH)
and points further S, late afternoon through the evening, with a
more meager LL thermodynamic setup for the overnight. Further
to the N and removed from the better LL thermodynamic
environment, the main threat is going to be the onset of
additional steady/heavy rain and embedded elevated TS, with
additional training activity expected during this time frame.

The period of late Monday afternoon through the
evening/overnight is going to be an active one locally. Up to
that point, there will have been extended breaks between the
different rounds of showers/storms, but that may not be the
case Monday evening/night as strong forcing and broad lift
amidst an anomalously-high PWAT environment lends itself to
concern for heavy rain and flooding. PWATs near, or in excess
of, 1.25" (near/greater than standing daily records) are
expected to develop as incredible deep-layer moisture surges
back in from the SW, with the prospect of one or more training
convective complexes tracking nearly-parallel to the mechanism
for lift. Moreover, modulations of the mesoscale environment are
undoubtedly expected through this period, with each cluster of
storms expected to reinforce the boundary (or nudge it a bit
further S), with a slow shift of the better convective
intensity to the S progressively Monday night into Tuesday
morning. There is moderate to high confidence in one or more
corridors of 2+ inches possible during this stretch, leading to
enough confidence to hoist a Flood Watch for flash flooding
potential, especially for areas that are able to exceed 3" of
rain. Although antecedent conditions are relatively dry,
training convective elements over the same areas would likely
overcome the ground`s ability to absorb the intense rain rates,
leading to runoff issues. While this will be possible just
about anywhere in the Flood Watch area, the favored corridor for
excessive rain and flooding, as of this juncture, will be
near/S of I-70 especially as you get closer to the OH Rvr (and
several tiers of counties N/S of the OH Rvr). This activity
should continue to near/past daybreak Tuesday before a brief
break evolves later in the morning Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CAM guidance continues to show an MCS carving through the Ohio
Valley early Tuesday morning as a stalled frontal boundary remains
laid out through our CWA. The heaviest rain from this complex
appears to be south of I-70, focused more towards the Ohio River. At
this juncture, PWATs will be 200-300% of normal as most of the CWA
will be above 1", with locations near the OH River falling in the
1.25" - 1.50"  PWAT range. Thus, there is a concern of flash
flooding from this complex of storms given the repeated rounds of
rainfall prior to this particular MCS, leading to wet antecedent
soil conditions.

The evolution of storms becomes a bit more murky the rest of the day
on Tuesday because of this MCS. Synoptically, the low pressure
center does become more progressive in its northeastward
propagation, eventually swinging a cold front through. Majority of
models do show the center of this low tracking through a portion of
our CWA, near or just north of the Tristate area. The track of this
low is of concern, primarily for altering the orientation of
surface winds and potentially backing these near-surface winds. This
is resulting in better hodograph curvature in the lowest few
kilometers, increasing the potential for rotating storms. Some
models are much more aggressive in how the environment rebounds,
which would combine favorable thermodynamics along with strong deep-
layer shear, heightening severe weather concerns with all hazards at
play. Will have to monitor how CAMs handle the evolution of the
morning MCS and how the atmosphere responds through the rest of the
day.

The pattern remains active even after the fropa Tuesday night as a
closed upper low continues to meander around the Great Lakes region.
Additional rounds of light pcpn will continue Tuesday night through
Thursday as waves of PVA pivot through the upper Ohio Valley. Strong
CAA on Wednesday will lead to a notable drop in temps, with
locations north of I-70 potentially staying under 40 degrees for the
day. Bufkit soundings do suggest that snow may mix in as thermal
profiles cool, especially along/NW of I-71 Tuesday. Snow potential
increases for all other counties Tuesday night.

Upper low finally progresses further northeast at the end of the
work week and high pressure will build back in from the west,
offering a period of drier weather as we head into the weekend. A
warming trend will ensue as well, with highs back into the 60s for
most by Sunday.

 

[junior]

Classic warm front training next 2 days ending with snow flurries. Looks like Tuesday afternoon front has  the better chances at severe weather if it materializes and the slp travels into Michigan. 

Edited March 31 by junior

[StormfanaticInd]

Watching storms in Illinois. Could be our first mcs to deal with 

[BuckeyeGal]

On 3/30/2024 at 7:27 PM, FortySixAnd32 said:

Everything ok? 

Luckily no damage.. it was nuts!

[Central Illinois]

2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Watching storms in Illinois. Could be our first mcs to deal with 

 

 

Quite the hailstorm here!!!

[snowlover2]

0z HRRR brings 60's temps and DP's up to and around I-70 which is a nice jump north from having it at the OH River on the 18z. That is for Tuesday.

Edited April 1 by snowlover2

[snowlover2]

[BuckeyeGal]

For Tuesday.

[JayPSU]

Getting real tired of the uptick in tornado concerns for this area in recent years.

[snowlover2]

I would be pretty surprised if they didn't expand the enhanced north on the new day 2.

[snowlover2]

Some cells have fired up in E IN/SW OH/S OH.

[OxfordOh_]

32 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Christ it’s just wave after wave