March 21-April 3, 2024 | Severe Weather/Potential Tornado Outbreak

[snowlover2]

Warning NW of Dayton.

[snowlover2]

2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Warning NW of Dayton.

It's labeled tornado possible as well.

Quote

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
640 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Darke County in west central Ohio...
  Northwestern Miami County in west central Ohio...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 640 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Arcanum,
  moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
  Piqua, Greenville, Covington, Arcanum, Bradford, Pleasant Hill,
  Gettysburg, Pitsburg, Union Corners, Polo, Bloomer, Abbottsville,
  Circle Hill, and Horatio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4019 8424 4007 8426 3996 8454 4008 8462
      4020 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 241DEG 31KT 4004 8453

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

[OxfordOh_]

2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

It's labeled tornado possible as well.

 

Was just about to post the same thing hmmm

[snowlover2]

ILN still hitting Sunday/Monday pretty hard.

Quote

This initial wave, upon its departure Saturday evening, should push
the aforementioned boundary S to closer to/S of the OH Rvr as drier
air briefly builds in behind the first sfc wave Saturday night/early
Sunday. This should allow for drier, although perhaps not completely
dry, conditions Saturday evening through early Sunday morning.
However, this boundary will begin to stall and lift back N once
again by Sunday morning/afternoon. This will promote renewed
convective development Sunday afternoon/evening as additional S/W
energy pivots around the broad-scale ridge axis and back into the OH
Vly. This will coincide with more aggressive moisture transport back
N into the region, with PWAT anomalies potentially exceeding 175% of
normal by Sunday night. With all of this, another round of
rain/storms (with some low-end instby being shown on much of the
prevailing guidance) should blossom about Sunday afternoon through
the night. With the steering-layer flow oriented more parallel to
the forcing mechanism (the quasi WNW-ESE oriented baroclinic zone),
the potential for heavy rain and training of convection may evolve
Sunday evening/night and will need to be watched carefully for the
onset of hydro concerns.

We should continue to see a northward pivot in the boundary through
early Monday, with more of the local area becoming situated squarely
in the warm sector of the eastward-moving system, which should eject
through the central plains into the mid MS Rvr Vly by Monday
afternoon. Renewed rain/storm chances will occur once again late
Monday/Monday night with the better forcing and additional lift
spreading E ahead of/along the front, with drier conditions
slow to return during the day Tuesday.

There are several items to watch regarding the pattern this weekend
into early next week -- most notably the repeated rounds of rain and
whether the heaviest activity from each "round" moves over the same
areas more than once. Still a bit too far out to isolate one
specific favored area/corridor for heavy rain, but it is mentioned
here for general awareness purposes, especially considering the
anomalous moisture content in the profile and the cumulative effect
of steady/heavy rain as we progress into Monday/Monday night. The
other item will be the potential for a few strong/severe storms late
Monday/Monday night. The overall setup, from a pattern recognition
perspective, certainly suggests that severe storms may develop
in/near the local area if the necessary ingredients come together,
especially in a scenario with a strengthening/deepening sfc low
darting to the NE through the wrn OH Vly. And if a more wide-open
(further north) warm sector is able to develop Monday
afternoon/evening, allowing for a better/more favorably-widespread
LL thermodynamic setup, amidst seasonably strong deep-layer wind
fields, a few strong to severe storms could evolve. As of right now,
the most concerning time period for a few strong to severe storms
may be Monday evening/night, but given the spatial and temporal
uncertainties at these time ranges, did not yet have the confidence
to mention in the HWO. However, if current trends continue, it may
need to be added in subsequent fcst updates.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 short-lived/narrow tornadoes confirmed in the TX Panhandle. 

Dew point was around 50 degrees btw.

 

Edited March 28 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Flooding and severe weather. Could be several rounds of storms along a stalled warm front.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[OxfordOh_]

Looks like a couple days of potential rough weather ahead. I’ve seen a lot of the weather community talk about these days as the next big “Outbreak” Don’t wanna jump the gun just yet but definitely something to keep an eye on.

[OxfordOh_]

Hopefully back up by Sunday! lol 

[StormfanaticInd]

3 hours ago, OxfordOh_ said:

Looks like a couple days of potential rough weather ahead. I’ve seen a lot of the weather community talk about these days as the next big “Outbreak” Don’t wanna jump the gun just yet but definitely something to keep an eye on.

 

[OxfordOh_]

23 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Yeah that’s a big yikes 😳 especially being a few days out still 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

30% DAY 4! Being along that warm front here in central Indiana has me concerned 

Edited March 29 by StormfanaticInd

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[snowlover2]

ILN latest.

Quote

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Quite an active pattern in store for the extended forecast with
multiple rounds of weather to watch.

By Sunday morning, quasi-zonal mid level flow will be in place over
the Ohio Valley. The cold front that stalled out near the Ohio River
on Saturday will begin to lift back north as a warm front associated
with a potent system off to our west. A robust temperature gradient
will be in place over the ILN CWA on Sunday, with areas north of I-
70 only reaching highs in the 50s while areas along the Ohio river
reach the mid 70s.

As the warm front lifts, it will be marked by a notable increase in
theta-e as we head into Sunday afternoon and PWATs rise accordingly,
reaching +1 to 2 sigma anomalies by Sunday afternoon. This influx in
moisture results in mostly cloudy skies for much of the area. MUCAPE
values in the open warm sector look to reach around 1000 J/kg during
the afternoon with low/mid level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km.
However, forecast soundings suggest an elevated mixed layer in place
which may, at least initially, inhibit storms from firing off.
However, should storms develop later in the day, isolated severe
will be possible, with a particular emphasis on hailers given
parameters mentioned above.

Periods of rain/thunder continue into the overnight hours along the
frontal boundary , with ILN still eating the temperature gradient
(lows in the upper 40s in the north, low 60s in the south) as at
least part of the CWA remains in the open warm sector of system to
our west.

Monday arrives with an additional influx of moisture and PWAT
anomalies rise to nearly 3 sigmas above normal. Cloudy skies,
periods of rain and storms continue, along with yet another tight
temperature gradient across the area (lows in the upper 50s in the
north, mid 70s in the south). There is still a bit of disagreement
between ensemble model runs on where the swath of highest QPF will
fall (and when!) but the consensus seems to be that the area will
receive much of its anticipated rainfall between Monday and Tuesday,
with rounds of repeated storms training over areas. With that being
said, soils are fairly dry at the moment, however, some of the
higher end broadbrushed QPFs reach upwards of 3 inches which could
produce isolated flood threats.

The mess continues into Tuesday as the parent low pressure and
associated upper level trough finally moving into the Ohio Valley.
Right now, track of the low still varies between ensemble guidance
so there is some discrepancy on how much we get warm sectored.
However, it does seem like there is a decent chance that at least
some of our CWA will be in a warm and unstable airmass prior to the
low`s cold front moving through, continuing the chance for severe
storms on Tuesday ahead of the front. At the very least, a strong
pressure gradient and LLJ at 60+ kts will be moving through, so we
can anticipate some gusty winds likely making it down to the surface
Tuesday and then again on Wednesday, in the cold air advection
regime.

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Don’t want to say the “O” word but Monday has the potential to be a very active day in the central CONUS. Especially along the Mississippi

[StormfanaticInd]

One thing I'm noticing is the gfs seems to somewhat be on its own with its solution for this storm. Will be interesting to see which model caves 

[ElectricStorm]

I'm a little surprised they went with a 30% on the Day 4 with how much discrepancy there is between models. Right now I'm seeing a pretty significant wind/hail event. Tornado threat still TBD but right now it's not looking like a huge outbreak or anything. Of course we'll see how things change in the coming days, but for now I'm leaning towards the slower/more west solutions for now, although  the NAM seems to be overdoing it like usual. 

EDIT: This is for Monday, haven't really looked much at Tuesday yet

Edited March 29 by ElectricStorm

[BuckeyeGal]

My son is supposed to have his first baseball game on Monday. And his second Tuesday. I casually hinted that that might not be happening, lol. 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Hmmmmm...🤔

[StormfanaticInd]

Slight risk added for tomorrow 

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
   CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A corridor of large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts is
   forecast Sunday through Sunday evening primarily from northern
   Missouri and central Illinois across central Indiana and far western
   Ohio.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large, positive-tilt upper trough will exist across much of the
   West on Sunday, with a broad area of strong southwest flow aloft
   across much of the Plains and Midwest. Ahead of the advancing
   trough, gradual height rises will occur over the Mid MS and OH
   Valleys, while midlevel temperatures remain cool with steep lapse
   rates.

   At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High
   Plains, with a warm front extending east from northern MO across IL
   and IN and into northern KY by late afternoon. A broad fetch of
   southerly winds will result in warming south of the warm front, with
   a return of upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints.

   ...Northern MO across central IL, IN, and far western OH...
   Early to midday thunderstorms are expected over northern MO and
   vicinity, on the nose of a low-level jet and where elevated MUCAPE
   may reach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings reveal moisture rooted in
   the 850-700 mb layer, beneath steep midlevel lase rates. Given 40+
   kt effective shear, marginal hail may be supported with the early
   activity.

   As heating occurs south of the warm front, the ongoing activity
   and/or new development along the southern flank/outflows may tend to
   propagate in more of an easterly direction as surface-based
   inhibition lessens. However, a sharp southern boundary appears
   likely as a capping inversion remains near 700 mb. As such, it
   appears that a narrow east-west oriented corridor of large hail and
   perhaps damaging gust potential will exist, primarily from
   west-central IL by mid afternoon and continuing into IN through
   evening.

 

[Iceresistance]

19 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

I'm a little surprised they went with a 30% on the Day 4 with how much discrepancy there is between models. Right now I'm seeing a pretty significant wind/hail event. Tornado threat still TBD but right now it's not looking like a huge outbreak or anything. Of course we'll see how things change in the coming days, but for now I'm leaning towards the slower/more west solutions for now, although  the NAM seems to be overdoing it like usual. 

EDIT: This is for Monday, haven't really looked much at Tuesday yet

I've noticed that the GEFS has trended west with the system

[snowlover2]

Quote

 Mesoscale Discussion 0313
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024

   Areas affected...Far East-Central IN into Central/Southern OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302027Z - 302300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of hail (1" to
   1.75") and/or damaging gusts (from 40 to 60 mph) are possible this
   afternoon and evening.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a low over north-central
   OH (about 30 miles east-northeast of FDY). A warm front extends
   east-southeastward from this low across southeast OH into far
   northern WV. A modest surface trough also extends southwestward from
   this low across central IN and central IL. Filtered heating in the
   wake of the early morning cloud cover has allowed temperatures to
   climb into the upper 60s/low 70s within the warm sector
   south/southwest of the warm front and to the east of the surface
   troughing. Low-level moisture remains modest, with dewpoints in the
   upper 40s/low 50s. Even though the low-level thermodynamic
   conditions are relatively modest, these conditions combined cold
   mid-level temperatures (i.e. around -20 deg C at 500 mb) and
   associated steep mid-level lapse rates are contributing to air mass
   destabilization.

   This destabilization is verified by increasingly agitated cumulus
   just ahead of the surface trough over far east-central IN and far
   western OH. Given the veered low-level flow, convergence along the
   boundary is limited. However, ascent along the boundary will be
   augmented by large-scale ascent attendant to a fast-moving shortwave
   embedded within the strong westerly flow aloft. This combination of
   ascent and destabilization will likely result in convective
   initiation. Buoyancy will be modest, but deep-layer vertical shear
   will be strong. Recent mesoanalysis estimates 50 to 60 kt of 0-6 km
   bulk shear across the region. As such, any deeper updrafts could
   become organized, capable of producing large hail (1" to 1.75")
   and/or damaging wind gusts (40 to 60 mph this afternoon and evening.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 03/30/2024