EZIpanic Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Yes, I'm hoping it's just them being extra cautious, which I understand completely. They are scaring the living day lights out of me in the meantime though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 9 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Latest outlook Ever so slight shift to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 2 Meteorologist Share Posted April 2 (edited) Looks like once this round of showers/storms passes through the actual destabilization occurs. You can see easily see the cold front on satellite too. It's a fairly narrow corridor of destabilization but should still be enough for southern Indiana, Kentucky, and probably SW OH. I'd also be watching that stationary/warm front north of I-70 later. Storm motion is mostly parallel to that. Edited April 2 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWsnowhio Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Looks like once this round of showers/storms passes through the actual destabilization occurs. You can see easily see the cold front on satellite too. It's a fairly narrow corridor of destabilization but should still be enough for southern Indiana, Kentucky, and probably SW OH. I'd also be watching that stationary/warm front north of I-70 later. Storm motion is mostly parallel to that. The 15z HRR seems to agree with you regarding the the storms lining up horizontally along the warm front north of 70: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted April 2 Admin Share Posted April 2 Everyone on social media is freaking out and saying it's "storm cancel." Oh mylanta. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Looks like once this round of showers/storms passes through the actual destabilization occurs. You can see easily see the cold front on satellite too. It's a fairly narrow corridor of destabilization but should still be enough for southern Indiana, Kentucky, and probably SW OH. I'd also be watching that stationary/warm front north of I-70 later. Storm motion is mostly parallel to that. 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: Everyone on social media is freaking out and saying it's "storm cancel." Oh mylanta. this afternoon cluster is probably everything in terms of what happens behind it, models are doing a poor job at initializing how much rain there actually is right now in that cluster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, cperry29 said: Would be welcome news if it plays out that way and doesn’t catch KY off guard. I don't know about this post from Simon. I guess it depends on what is "significant" in terms of instability, but it sure looks to me like we will get decent destabilization north of the Ohio River, especially paired with this kinematic environment. The bigger question is how far north of the river does the better destabilization extend. These kind of setups with a rapidly strengthening system are prone to fast airmass recovery unless there's a compelling reason for it not to occur. The ongoing convection will have to be pretty widespread/persistent imo to mitigate the overall threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: this afternoon cluster is probably everything in terms of what happens behind it, models are doing a poor job at initializing how much rain there actually is right now in that cluster the 16z has it falling apart before the real concern behind it, I think that will be the first indication on if models even had a clue. I can tell you though that if/when this first round moves through as garden variety which is appears will be the case. People will be up in arms thinking that was it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 6 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Everyone on social media is freaking out and saying it's "storm cancel." Oh mylanta. I think it's always better to be cautious and remain on guard in these situations. Really requires hourly analysis to keep an eye on how the environment is evolving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I don't know about this post from Simon. I guess it depends on what is "significant" in terms of instability, but it sure looks to me like we will get decent destabilization north of the Ohio River, especially paired with this kinematic environment. The bigger question is how far north of the river does the better destabilization extend. These kind of setups with a rapidly strengthening system are prone to fast airmass recovery unless there's a compelling reason for it not to occur. The ongoing convection will have to be pretty widespread/persistent imo to mitigate the overall threat. I’m fearful you’re right. I was hopeful this convection would be the stabilizing factor we needed to calm things down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Gotta stay off twitter people were calling today a “bust” before noon. We are not out of the woods my any means yet. I’m starting to get a bit worried myself 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, OxfordOh_ said: Gotta stay off twitter people were calling today a “bust” before noon. We are not out of the woods my any means yet. I’m starting to get a bit worried myself Probably too many peeps looking at yesterdays Hi Rez Tornado signature maps. Crazy high yesterday. Thankful less so today but still potential... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 76 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southwest Indiana Western Kentucky Extreme southeast Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected along a wind shift from extreme southeast Missouri into southeast Illinois early this afternoon, and additional storms will form and move into western Kentucky and southwest Indiana through the afternoon. The environment favors fast-moving supercells capable of producing tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong/EF2), large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Evansville IN to 40 miles south southwest of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 75... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Thompson Pretty decent probs Quote Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes Mod (30%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (60%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (60%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 7 minutes ago, RobB said: Probably too many peeps looking at yesterdays Hi Rez Tornado signature maps. Crazy high yesterday. Thankful less so today but still potential... I agree. Glad it’s calm down some just afraid we will have a 2-3 hour window of destabilization after this round of storms move through question is how much? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 6 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: I agree. Glad it’s calm down some just afraid we will have a 2-3 hour window of destabilization after this round of storms move through question is how much? Totally...Agreed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) Watching storm to my wsw. Edited April 2 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger1989 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 You have to be cautious with the strong dynamic systems. Airmass can destabilize fast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 8 minutes ago, Roger1989 said: Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Yeah these storms don’t look to be with us long here in SW Ohio. Maybe another 30 minutes to an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 26 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Pretty decent probs Yea, parameters have really increased since the sun came out earlier in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Yikes. Yellow is 1000 to 1500 with MLCAPE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, RobB said: Yellow is 1000 to 1500 with MLCAPE Ominous!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Looks like cold front is still in eastern illinois 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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