JayPSU Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Crap, sun is starting to poke its way out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Would be welcome news if it plays out that way and doesn’t catch KY off guard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 sun trying to sneak out in zzv but it’s cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leenita Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Olentangy just announced a 90 minute early dismissal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gerb131 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 ILN should launch a special balloon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxwatchman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Blue skies and sun making themselves known here in Hillsboro. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out later. Local schools are doing early dismissal here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Sun is out here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Sun breaking though here in Delaware, OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Not a large break in the clouds IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Yeah I was going to say…not much clearing for most of the area down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Could be wrong but I think that next round of storms/cloud cover about to move into the moderate risk might be enough to prevent a major outbreak in Ohio by limiting moisture advection and keeping the warm front further south. But if we see quick clearing behind it, that could lead to better recovery. Very tough forecast today and a very fine line between a messy low-impact event or a major outbreak. Leaning towards the lesser solution for now. Regardless with how massive the warm sector is today there will probably be a a strong tornado or two somewhere at minimum and as always it only takes one storm to make an event memorable so hopefully everyone stays safe. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) 34 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Would be welcome news if it plays out that way and doesn’t catch KY off guard. I’ve seen similar comments in multiple places. Hope they’re right! Edited April 2 by JayPSU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow____ Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Has clouded back up here in Cincy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0345 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL...extreme northern KY...and southern/central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 021558Z - 021830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A gradually increasing severe hail threat should exist with slowly intensifying thunderstorms across southern Indiana and vicinity. The damaging wind and tornado threat remain less clear, but some risk may eventually develop this afternoon. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage over the past hour or so across southern IN and vicinity. This activity is largely tied to pronounced ascent associated with a very strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Most of these thunderstorms are currently elevated, and located to the north of an outflow boundary related to earlier morning convection now in WV. Still, visible satellite and surface observation trends show attempts at low-level moisture returning northward ahead of these thunderstorms and filtered daytime heating across parts of southern/central IN. While MUCAPE remains weak at the moment, instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to increase through the afternoon as a northern and southern-stream shortwave trough phase over the Midwest. This should support a threat for supercells capable of producing mainly severe hail initially. The risk for damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon will be dependent on whether sufficient low-level moistening/warming will occur to support truly surface-based convection. Regardless of this continued uncertainty with instability, the gradually increasing severe threat over the next few hours may eventually prompt watch issuance. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Yea wont be long before the clustery storm clouds reach here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: That is a welcomed graphic. Hopefully just some typical spring storms with nothing to tornadic for all in the path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Also, clouds on the horizon here in east central Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 (edited) Feeling more confident now that today will not be an outbreak day by any means. Yes, strong to severe storms will develop and a few may contain a tornado or two. But not to the degree in which we were worried about last night. Probably will still see some big hail though. Edited April 2 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 15z HRRR has a lot more discrete cells across OH than previous runs. Would be pretty concerning if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EZIpanic Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Marysville schools just announced an early dismissal. I have never seen this reaction to storms before, it's making me nervous. I pray it's a bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Ohio schools are still on edge (and rightfully so) after the tragic tornados from last month. They are using extra caution and don’t want to risk any busses being out there this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FortySixAnd32 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Newark is cancelling ALL after school events.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 3 minutes ago, EZIpanic said: Marysville schools just announced an early dismissal. I have never seen this reaction to storms before, it's making me nervous. I pray it's a bust! Its hyper sensitivity to what happened 2 weeks ago with basically a slight risk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Latest outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Just now, ElectricStorm said: Latest outlook Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of the Southeast. Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South. A threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight across parts of Alabama and Georgia. ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening... Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY. The lead storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone, where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of 65-70 F. A couple of the storms will likely become persistent supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing TN-KY-WV convection. The storms approaching middle TN and southern KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of OH (especially eastern OH). The corridor of richer low-level moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection. As previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY. ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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