NWOhioChaser Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Pretty alarming upgrade there for tomorrow…has potential if enough destabilization occurs. Already sending the warnings out on my social. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Not quite as extreme for Ohio as 12z HRRR. Hoping others follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 6 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Not quite as extreme for Ohio as 12z HRRR. Hoping others follow suit. Still very bad though in the grand scheme of things especially considering the dynamics at play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Still very bad though in the grand scheme of things especially considering the dynamics at play Yeah for sure! I’m looking for optimism lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Just now, cperry29 said: Yeah for sure! I’m looking for optimism lol. Hopefully this system can calm down lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 The 12z HRRR run was absurd, like borderline 30# absurd. Hopefully we don't see any more runs like that. 18z still looks potent but more realistic imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Possible tornado tag 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 26 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Still looks pretty rough unfortunately and maybe two rounds of severe weather? I know, I just meant it didn’t look like the insane cataclysm that the 12Z run showed. This looks more normal…still a threat but not as certain to be terrible for as many people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 minute ago, JayPSU said: I know, I just meant it didn’t look like the insane cataclysm that the 12Z run showed. This looks more normal…still a threat but not as certain to be terrible for as many people. Yeah 12z was insane let’s hope a downward trend continues! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Quite the write up for ILN 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted April 1 Admin Share Posted April 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 NAM 3k looks very much linear compared to the HRRR. Might be a now cast situation tomorrow with all the variables of morning convection, storm mode, and timing in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I snipped this from FB page of one Jim Sullivan of NWS Cleveland. Jim was, at one time, Accuweather Poster of the Year in their forums waaay back longer ago than I can remember exactly. Obv, he did, as he said he would, become a forecast pro met with NWS, He does not post weather on his FB very often - so for him to do so in this instance, is noteworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Let’s see how quick the atmosphere recovers from the morning mess. I knew this risk would pop as the models trended more NW and stronger with the slp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 Spoiler Mesoscale Discussion 0325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri into parts of central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 012050Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch may be needed within the next 1-2 hours as additional storms may develop in east-central Missouri/central Illinois. The environment is supportive of large/very-large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is expected to increase this evening as low-level shear increases near the boundary. DISCUSSION...Cores within a broad area of precipitation have occasionally pulsed in intensity. Some recent CAM guidance suggest that additional storms will develop out of this activity within the next 2-3 hours. While current wind profiles are not overly supportive of tornadoes, storms will be near the warm front and low-level shear should improve this evening as 850 mb winds increase. Given the background environment and potential evolution of this activity, a tornado watch will need to be considered. . .Wendt/Thompson.. 04/01/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 2 hours ago, JayPSU said: Is there no chance the rain overnight and tomorrow morning stabilizes the atmosphere here? I want no parts of that. ILN saying robust destabilization after the morning stuff. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... While the large complex of storms will be exiting the ILN FA around, or slightly after daybreak, the concern for hazardous weather is far from over. Bottom line up front: a very concerning signal has evolved with a parameter space that suggests widespread severe weather, or a significant severe weather outbreak, may evolve Tuesday afternoon/evening across the region. Although the environment will become more stable immediately behind the MCS during the morning, robust environmental recovery and modulation is expected into the afternoon as a deepening sfc low (~998mb to ~990mb) moves from nrn MO into nrn IN. This will allow for a swift and significant surge of the open warm sector N of the OH Rvr into far ern IN and WC and central OH and everywhere in-between (and S) by mid afternoon. This will allow for incredibly-quick destabilization of the environment with each passing hour early afternoon, with the nose of a LLJ impinging to the NE during this time. Quite frankly, it is a volatile setup for the local area. Already-strong LL and deep- layer shear will intensify into mid/late afternoon, with sfc-1km SRH exceeding 300m2/s2 and storm inflow SRH exceeding 400-450m2/s2. Long-curved hodographs amidst environments with SBCAPE exceeding 2000J/kg suggests a very concerning (high-end severe) environment, especially if cells can remain discrete along/ahead of the advancing front. CI may begin as early as 2 PM across far wrn IN before expanding/blossoming to the E and into the local area as early as 3 PM. While there are some indications of more clustering with embedded supercells (opposed to firmly-discrete supercells), even this scenario will bring with it the potential for all hazards, including large to very large hail, strong/damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. The parameter space suggests a few strong to intense long-track tornadoes may be possible late afternoon into early evening, with the threat shifting W to E between 3 PM and 9 PM across the heart of the ILN FA. There are still a few uncertainties in /just/ how far N the warm sector will make it, but the trends in the latest guidance suggest it will have no issue making it N of I-70 by 18z-20z. There will be a sharp cutoff in the potential for significant severe storms on the nrn fringes of the warm sector, which should orient itself W-E across the nrn third of IN/OH by late afternoon. With all of this being said, we absolutely concur with the upgrade to a MOD risk for the majority of the ILN FA for Tuesday afternoon/evening, with a significant severe weather outbreak possible across the local area. This is a day to be weather-aware. This is a day to know your plan and be prepared to act when warning are issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 50 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Crazy that it's been that long for Ohio. Of course there have probably been some severe events since 2013 that would've warranted a 15% tornado area in hindsight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I really don't see atmospheric recovery being much of a problem tomorrow. Typically these scenarios with strong low level flow/rapidly deepening system result in pretty rapid northward destabilization after any convection earlier in the day. I don't think instability will be lacking, so it will come down to smaller scale nuances as far as what magnitude this reaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Phew, pretty nasty probabilities on the MO,IL tornado watch. Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois Eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon and evening, building eastward along a boundary across central Missouri/Illinois. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Jefferson City MO to 35 miles south of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 Current radar isn't looking very convincing for a major severe weather event yet with initiation still holding off and a blob of rain across SW OK. Still think we could see something here but I'm starting to think the bulk of it may end up east of me after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 you can find very clear distinctions on what happens if it stays cloudy/dreary in the afternoon (18z 3km) vs. if it clears up post A.M. rain (12z HRDPS, which is disgusting) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 the RGEM also kinda lingers rain/clouds in the moderate area almost all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 The main issue to me on the 18z 3km NAM looks like the more strung out/weaker surface low. It still manages 1500-2000+ CAPE and would still be a decent severe threat, but not as high-end as other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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