OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 (edited) A moderate risk might be necessary tomorrow especially if we clear out. A lot of wind energy ready to be tapped into should we destabilize Edited April 1 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 Either he's seeing something nobody else is or he's over exaggerating like usual 🙄 It's just a 5% Mike... Big time hail today though, I still think we could see an upgrade to moderate for 45# hail. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 (edited) 10 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: A moderate risk might be necessary tomorrow especially if we clear out. A lot of wind energy ready to be tapped into should we destabilize Yeah I agree, could be the first 15# tornado area of the year. I think the current enhanced risk is too far south and needs to be moved north as well. 12z HRRR is just absurd Edited April 1 by ElectricStorm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 6 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Either he's seeing something nobody else is or he's over exaggerating like usual 🙄 It's just a 5% Mike... Big time hail today though, I still think we could see an upgrade to moderate for 45# hail. A bit of an over exaggeration huh? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
voltwaffle Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 26 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Either he's seeing something nobody else is or he's over exaggerating like usual 🙄 It's just a 5% Mike... Big time hail today though, I still think we could see an upgrade to moderate for 45# hail. Ah, good old Mike "Drive south or die" Morgan. Either he's truly delusional or this is a horrible April Fool's joke. Not sure which is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Looks somewhat interesting for my area later this evening hadn’t looked too much with Tomorrows potential plus the stronger potential down south tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Looking at 12z models coming in and I gotta say tomorrow looks like a tornado outbreak imo unless I'm missing something 🤔 😬 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 There it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 Yep here we go. 10# tor area moved to OKC metro as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 I'd definitely plan on a northward expansion of tomorrow's risk area, especially with the models shifting the surface low farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted April 1 Moderators Share Posted April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Yikes 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Moderate risk for tornadoes for all of Ohio tomorrow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 (edited) Ugh no thanks Edited April 1 by cperry29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 12 minutes ago, cperry29 said: Ugh no thanks Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley. Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does. By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over the Illinois vicinity. At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding northward into Lower Michigan overnight. A cold front associated with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest late. Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania, though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming over the Northeast. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence. As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes. The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 20 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Moderate risk for tornadoes for all of Ohio tomorrow! Not what we need.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 NOT GOOD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 7 minutes ago, RobB said: Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley. Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does. By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over the Illinois vicinity. At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding northward into Lower Michigan overnight. A cold front associated with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest late. Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania, though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming over the Northeast. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence. As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes. The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late. Thanks! Trying to work and post at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Reed will be in town tomorrow! sheesh was in a 2% this morning now I’m in the 15% hatched 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 1 minute ago, OxfordOh_ said: Reed will be in town tomorrow! sheesh was in a 2% this morning now I’m in the 15% hatched Yeah pretty damn stupid we weren’t in an enhanced at that point already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Just now, snowlover2 said: Yeah pretty damn stupid we weren’t in an enhanced at that point already. 100% agree. Especially on the next update they pull the trigger on a moderate risk! Busy next 36 hours for a lot of us on here be safe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 (edited) Edited April 1 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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