Winter 2024-2025 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

CFS fantasy DEC 🥶

 

[SNOWBOB11]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

CFS fantasy DEC 🥶

 

I’ll take it lol.

[BuckeyeGal]

I read HERE that the Climate Prediction Center had downgraded the potential for La Niña conditions this year to 60%. The folks 'in the know' seem to feel that it may not even materialize at all, or that if it does that it would be extremely weak.. which would possibly lead to an ENSO-neutral winter. Which, in Amy-speak, means that nobody knows exactly what's going to happen, and that we could see a blow torch, or we could see the next ice age, lol.

 

I'll take those chances, considering the poop stain that the past few winters have left. 😄

[SOMOSnow]

10 hours ago, Grace said:

CFS fantasy DEC 🥶

 

Wow, and gives me that streak of heavy moisture, too! Lock it in!!!!

[JDClapper]

On 10/10/2024 at 5:27 PM, TLChip said:

next week?

I actually did this past week.  Still haven't turned on heat despite the kiddo complaining it's cold in the house (61 ain't cold, enough with the drama!)  But I def believe I'll be firing up the annual burnt hair smell this week.

[JDClapper]

My winter forecast:   Lots of clouds.  Just got these bad boys installed Thursday (there's more on another part of the roof).  Electrician gets it connected to the meter Tuesday.  As surly as the track of a big storm shifts, the sun will be hard to find the majority of the time after that.  😄

[Grace]

5 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said:

I read HERE that the Climate Prediction Center had downgraded the potential for La Niña conditions this year to 60%. The folks 'in the know' seem to feel that it may not even materialize at all, or that if it does that it would be extremely weak.. which would possibly lead to an ENSO-neutral winter. Which, in Amy-speak, means that nobody knows exactly what's going to happen, and that we could see a blow torch, or we could see the next ice age, lol.

 

I'll take those chances, considering the poop stain that the past few winters have left. 😄

 

Just give me the 2013-14 version please

[TLChip]

3 hours ago, JDClapper said:

I actually did this past week.  Still haven't turned on heat despite the kiddo complaining it's cold in the house (61 ain't cold, enough with the drama!)  But I def believe I'll be firing up the annual burnt hair smell this week.

The neighbors and I play a game who go can the longest before they turn the heat on, it's typically November 🥶

[Grace]

On 10/11/2024 at 7:39 AM, Grace said:

JMA update. I can only give individual months for NDJ & the 3 month DJF

NOV

 

DEC

 

JAN

 

DJF

 

**Hunch is JMA is painting a picture of a front end loaded winter mostly from mid-NOV through DEC for east then it shifts west.

Did not want buried at the end of last page. Same for UKMET....which I'll bump as well. 

[Grace]

On 10/11/2024 at 7:39 PM, Grace said:

UKMET...not terrible

NDJ

 

DJF

 

[Grace]

 

[Pghsnow]

From Bastardi 

An Updated Look At Winter

• A warmer than normal East and South is expected for the Winter Season overall.
• There are indications that it could be colder in the central and eastern U.S., and we have stepped down the forecast a bit.
  • A cold Canada will set the stage for impactful cold air outbreaks.
• Rapid cooling of oceans may throw a monkey wrench into things.
• The active late Hurricane season means to look for a cold outbreak from late November into December.
  • The pattern over North America should be in line with recent high-impact hurricane seasons and cold PDO analogs.

The Verdict

Overall, we are expecting another winter season with warmer than normal temperatures in the East. With all of the potential for cold air in Canada, there is a threat of major intrusions for a few weeks at a time. Most of the very warm winters have cold intrusions, but the winter comes down to warmth outdoing cold and that is the message here for the East and South. The opposite is likely for the West and North. Snowier than average conditions are expected over the Plains and Northwest, along with much of Western Canada. Snow is going to be a real roll of the dice for areas farther to the East with less than average snow events (as far as an overall number), but one or two big storms can make up for it in amounts similar to 2021-22. Those one or two major events have been completely missing over the past two winters.

With the active late hurricane season having a very strong correlation to early cold outbreaks, likely because the same MJO that can enhance hurricanes now 40-60 days later is favorable for cold, a quick start is on the table. Remember, there is no correlation for sustained cold later, and, in fact, it's usually the opposite.

 

[Arctic Outbreak]

1 hour ago, Pghsnow said:

 

a quick start is on the table

 

That would certainly be something different!

[Pghsnow]

Accuweather winter forecast  https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-forecast-for-the-us-in-the-2024-25-season/1699821

Edited Tuesday at 05:59 PM by Pghsnow

[StretchCT]

A little late to the game this year, but I'm looking for years where the ONI transition in JJA (the latest we have) 0.1 to -0.1 (it's 0.1 this year). I'm also looking for weak Nina's as it's only a 60% chance of Nina. Only going back to 1990.  No perfect match as the current state of +0.1 to -0.1 results in years where Nina was -0.9.   Interestingly 1995-1996 shows up. 

Year                      DJF         JJA (0.1)

2019-2020           -0.5        0.3#

2012-2013           -0.4        0.2

2013-2014           -0.4        -0.4*

2017-2018           -0.9        0.1

2005-2006           -0.9        -0.1

1995-1996           -0.9        -0.2*

*much colder than normal in UMW/NEMA

# much warmer than normal in UMW/NEMA

Why 2014 and 1996 are outliers?

Edited Tuesday at 06:55 PM by StretchCT

[Pghsnow]

Our first fantasy snow of the year ..

[WeatherJim]

31 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

Our first fantasy snow of the year ..

Though if my memory serves me correctly it seems like the last few times we had cold or snow in October in Chicago December was balmy. I'm hoping for a snowy winter this year. It has been awhile.

[StormfanaticInd]

Odds really do favor at least a normal winter. It's been too long since we have had a decent winter. Hopefully this year changes things and we can put together a couple of good winters

[SNOWBOB11]

There seems to be a general thinking that there is a chance at a normal or cooler December with snow chances. It’s been a while since we had a front loaded winter. If we do end up with +1°-3° warmer than average anomalies in January it will be better. At least where I am warmer than average January can still mean snow while a warm December usually doesn’t bode well for winter precipitation.

[Wnwniner]

15 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

Our first fantasy snow of the year ..

We had snow flurries on beggars night last year, too!

[Hoosier]

16 hours ago, WeatherJim said:

Though if my memory serves me correctly it seems like the last few times we had cold or snow in October in Chicago December was balmy. I'm hoping for a snowy winter this year. It has been awhile.

I've looked into it before and there's definitely a correlation between accumulating snow in October in Chicago and having a lackluster winter.  No real correlation with just having some flurries/snow showers in October though.

13 years have produced 0.5"+ snowfall in Chicago in October.  Of those 13, only 3 went on to have a snowier than average winter.

[so_whats_happening]

On 10/8/2024 at 7:27 PM, so_whats_happening said:

This is sort of how im feeling this winter, I could be horribly wrong and Im fine with that. I do however feel the temps will be a bit more warmer overall than the depiction shows and we still will have the overall SE ridge pop up from time to time but I do believe we will not be nearly as ridge prone as past years (time will tell of course). Im expecting this area very similar to forecasts being thrown out of 1-3F above average for the winter with the majority of the warmth from about Texas to the Carolinas, sort of a slightly skewed SE ridge look. Also not expecting nearly as deep of a trough as we have seen out onto the west coast around the Cali and Arizona region like we had from 2020-2023.

Overall not great but not bad I think we manage at least average snowfall wise but the further into PA and NY you go the better the chances get for above average. 95 may struggle again this year but getting closer to average is a step in the right direction. Of course one single storm could skew the hell out of the season so snowfall overall will be tough to forecast for.

Boy oh boy so a good piece of news is that products that were disrupted from Helene at NCEI are starting to slowly update. Today the September number for PDO finally updated, not only is it the lowest value recorded in September in the last ~170 years of data but it is I believe the second lowest number ever recorded within the data set for any single month (ill have to double check on that and comb through the data). 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

I really really do want to hold out hope that things mitigate with this incredible -PDO pattern we have seen but I'm starting to lose a bit of hope. The persistence of this pattern is honestly impressive not even the RRR was as extensively long as this deep PDO state over the last 5 years. There is one thing to have a -PDO pattern and there is another to have one be so anomalously negative that it starts to really battle records.

I do still overall think the look above is what will happen this year but was hoping that there would be a bit more back and forth (more so in the extreme department of back and forth) this year with a weakening -PDO state, I'm not so sure that will happen anytime soon now. Even a strong Nino event couldn't shake things up. The only thing that probably will need changing is the overall temp anomalies I had mentioned +1 to +3 over much of the east with higher levels from about the Carolinas to TX but we may have to bump them up a bin.

Unless we start to see some signs of change this really ain't looking good for winter outside of interior and even those locations may struggle to get to average levels. Again hope I am horribly wrong and we have the most amazing snowfall year since 09-10 but it is looking highly unlikely we get to near average through much of the area.

Edited yesterday at 08:13 AM by so_whats_happening

[MaineJay]

It's the extended bone dry periods we've seen for many places that makes me wonder about the snowfall aspect this winter.  Next 10 days east of the Mississippi is impressive.  

  Last winter we were able to manage a fairly "average" snowfall season, but the amount of "blue snow" was impressive. It was extremely destructive, and very hard to move.

 I'm certainly no going to bemoan a warm, dry second half of October however, just gonna enjoy it.

 

[Hoosier]

Something caught my eye on the new CPC winter outlook that was released today.  They now have the best chances of above average precip anomalies centered in the Lakes.  Typically with a Nina, that area will be more centered on the Ohio Valley.

I'd take my chances with this all day long, but I'm not necessarily buying that the warmth won't win out more than what this would imply.

 

 

[Pghsnow]

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Something caught my eye on the new CPC winter outlook that was released today.  They now have the best chances of above average precip anomalies centered in the Lakes.  Typically with a Nina, that area will be more centered on the Ohio Valley.

I'd take my chances with this all day long, but I'm not necessarily buying that the warmth won't win out more than what this would imply.

 

 

 

Here is CPC discussion on their new maps

Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks

NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD

830 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions remain present, as

equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the

central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A La Niña Watch remains in effect, with La

Niña favored to emerge during September-November (SON) 2024 (60% chance) and is

forecast to persist through January-March (JFM) 2025. Any La Niña event that

develops this autumn is favored, however, to be a weak short duration event.

 

The November-January (NDJ) 2024-2025 temperature outlook favors above-normal

seasonal mean temperatures for most of the Contiguous United States (CONUS)

from the Southwest eastward to include most of the central U.S. and all of the

eastern CONUS. The largest probabilities (greater than 60 percent) of above

normal temperatures are forecast for parts of the Southwest. There also is an

enhanced likelihood of above-normal temperatures for northern Alaska.

Below-normal temperatures are most likely for much of southern Alaska.

 

The NDJ 2024-2025 precipitation outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of

below-normal seasonal total precipitation amounts along most of the southern

tier of the CONUS and for parts of southeast Mainland Alaska and Alaska

Panhandle. The greatest odds of below-normal precipitation (greater than 50

percent) are forecast for parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains. Slight

tilts toward above-normal precipitation is depicted for parts of the Pacific

Northwest, northern Rockies, central Great Lakes, and western and northern

Alaska.

 

Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category

of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal total precipitation amounts are

expected to be similar to climatological probabilities.

 

BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS

Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing

 

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS

 

ENSO-neutral continued through early October 2024, with near-average sea

surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the equatorial Pacific Ocean as a

whole. The equatorial central Pacific SSTs, however, have cooled recently and

negative anomalies of greater than -0.5 degrees C for the equatorial region

from 165 W to 125 W are evident. In fact, the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index

value is now -0.5 degrees C. Below-average subsurface ocean temperatures remain

in place with cooler than normal conditions from approximately 160 W to 90 W to

a depth of about 150 m. Low-level wind anomalies are easterly over the

east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies are westerly

over the eastern Pacific. Convection has been near average over Indonesia and

slightly suppressed over the Date Line.

 

Then MJO has been active during September into October and aided a trade wind

surge across the central Pacific in early September. The MJO is forecast to

remain active for at least the rest of October and another trade wind surge

supporting cooling of SSTs in the central Pacific is possible in late October.

 

SSTs at higher latitudes remain warmer than normal for most areas of the

mid-Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Enhanced upwelling along the U.S.

West Coast has allowed negative SST anomalies to develop in parts of this

region and below-normal ocean surface temperatures are evident in parts of the

Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea.

 

Drought conditions have rapidly expanded across much of the CONUS during late

summer and early autumn especially for areas in the central U.S.

 

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS

 

Taken collectively, statistical and dynamical model forecast guidance of the

Niño3.4 index favor the development of a weak and most likely short duration La

Niña event. Some statistical model forecasts do favor a continuation of

ENSO-neutral into and through winter 2024-2025. Dynamical model guidance

predictions tend to support weak La Niña conditions to develop, including the

majority of participant models from the NMME and C3S forecast suites. Most

recent observations and the forecast guidance noted above favor La Niña to

emerge during SON (60% chance) and is expected to persist through JFM 2025.

 

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

 

The development of potential La Niña conditions in the atmosphere-ocean system

in the Pacific contributed to the outlooks from NDJ 2024-2025 through FMA 2025.

Although typical La Niña impacts are less likely to occur during a weak event

(currently favored), La Niña still tilts the odds in the outlook forecast

probabilities. Coastal SSTs and constructed analogue forecasts keyed to current

soil moisture anomalies are utilized in preparation of the outlooks at early

leads. Dynamical model guidance from the NMME and C3S prediction suites (first

5 and 3 leads respectively), statistical forecast tools, long-term temperature

and precipitation trends , and an objective, historical skill weighted

combination of much of the above guidance strongly contributed to the final

outlooks.

 

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - NDJ 2024 TO NDJ 2025

 

TEMPERATURE

 

The NDJ 2024-2025 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean

temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) to include the Southwest,

central Rockies, the central and Southern Plains, Southeast, Ohio Valley,

mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Highest odds for warmer than normal conditions is

forecast for the Southwest and southern Plains. The temperature outlook for

this season is primarily based on dynamical model guidance from the NMME and

C3S prediction suites and long term positive temperature trends  across much of

the country.

 

Expectations for the development of La Niña conditions contributed to the

temperature outlooks and their evolution from DJF 2024-2025 through FMA 2025.

Even though the La Niña event is favored to be a weak and shorter duration

event at this time, typical winter season impacts influence the outlook during

these seasons with below-normal temperatures most likely from the Pacific

Northwest eastward to the northern Plains beginning in DJF 2024-2025 through

FMA 2025 and potentially lingering for parts of the Pacific Northwest and

northern Rockies in MAM 2025. Enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures

forecast in NDJ 2024-2025 gradually decrease in coverage and magnitude across

the CONUS through FMA 2025 for areas of the western CONUS, Midwest, Great

Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. Some statistical model guidance including the

ENSO-OCN forecast tool and composites taken over the 1991-2023 period for

combined weak La Niña and ENSO-neutral winter seasons support this outlook

evolution.

 

Negative temperature trends  for the north-central U.S. - especially centered

near the month of February - played a considerable role in the outlooks. The

official outlooks deviate significantly in some areas in the north-central

CONUS from the majority of the NMME and C3S dynamical model guidance. Given

weak ENSO forcing this winter, variability within the winter seasons is most

likely to be above-average and greater than last winter. The variance from key

subseasonal modes of variability from both the Tropics (e.g., MJO, etc.) and

higher latitudes/stratosphere (i.e., AO/NAO, etc.) is likely to dominate the

eventual seasonal mean temperature anomalies rather than more persistent

periods during the winter. Positive temperature trends  in the dynamical model

guidance may be overemphasized in the model predictions in these regions

resulting in warmer solutions overall for the winter seasons from DJF through

FMA 2025 as the observed temperature trends  are either neutral or negative in

most areas.

 

For Alaska, over these seasons, dynamical model guidance is in overwhelming

agreement between models and consistent with typical La Niña related impacts.

Below-normal temperatures are most likely for south-central and Southeast

mainland Alaska as well as for the Alaska Panhandle through MAM 2025 with the

maximum forecast coverage during JFM 2025. Above-normal temperatures are

favored for northwest Alaska during this period with the greatest odds during

NDJ 2024-2025 due to more open water (below-normal sea ice extent) and

anticipated warmer than normal SSTs.

 

Progressing through the spring and summer months of 2025, the outlooks

primarily rely on the forecast consolidation of statistical model guidance and

long-term temperature trends  with high uncertainty in the future evolution of

ENSO. Forecast coverage for above-normal temperatures is greatest during the

late spring and summer seasons of MJJ and JJA 2025.

 

PRECIPITATION

 

The NDJ 2024-2025 precipitation outlook favors above-normal seasonal total

precipitation amounts for portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies,

Michigan, and northern and western Alaska. Drier-than-normal conditions are

most likely for the southern tier of the U.S. with the highest odds forecast

for the Southwest and Southern Plains. For Southeast Mainland Alaska and the

northern Alaska Panhandle, a slight tilt toward drier than normal conditions is

forecast through MAM 2025.

 

As noted above, the favored development of La Niña conditions approaching the

winter and consistent dynamical model forecast guidance is the basis for the

outlook. Moving through the FMA 2025 season, the enhanced likelihood of

above-normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions expands

in coverage and probabilities increase maximizing in the southern Great Lakes

and northern Ohio Valley area in JFM 2025. Positive precipitation trends  also

contribute strongly to these outlooks for some areas in the Midwest and Great

Lakes.

 

Favored below-normal precipitation across the south through FMA 2025 remains

generally consistent with the forecast coverage and odds greatest for JFM 2025.

The majority of the dynamical model guidance from the NMME and C3S model suites

highlight substantially elevated odds for below-normal precipitation for the

Far West (i.e., California/Nevada) for the winter seasons through FMA 2025.

Given the anticipated generally weak ENSO forcing, this seems overdone,

especially since some of the dynamical model guidance can sometimes

overemphasize ENSO impacts during weaker events.

 

Given the lack of a clear, reliable ENSO signal after this winter/early spring,

longer lead outlooks are primarily based on long term precipitation trends  and

depict low forecast coverage. The longer lead precipitation outlooks during the

warm season generally have low forecast skill.

FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck

The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following

the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3

complete decades as the climatic reference period.  The probability anomalies

for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent

shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals.

 

Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their

valid period.  Within any given valid period observations and short and medium

range forecasts should be consulted.

 

This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next

month on Nov 21 2024

1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021

forecast release.