SOMOSnow Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I'm hoping Fall stays hot. Eventually it has to flip back. Might as well wait until December. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I'm still waiting to wear a hoodie on a regular basis. Sheesh. Maybe this week. 🤷♂️ Havent even whipped out the sweats yet. 😭 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted October 6 Meteorologist Share Posted October 6 On 10/5/2024 at 10:16 AM, Grace said: FWIW, Euro Seasonal is blowtorch NOV-MAR for east half of CONUS. Maine has a glimmer of hope in FFEB. Overall it is really ugly. Yea, it's just guidance & may be incorrect but it's ugly. NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR It'll be interesting to watch what happens this winter. I'm guessing much of the temperature anomaly damage will be done overnight across the Upper Midwest. It seems we have more moisture now days so we end up with stratus that props up our lows (outside of last year.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 NMME updated 🤯 I'll post the only one that's not really, really warm for Dec CFS..best one.. DEC JAN FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 FYI, if you remember guidance was showing a really good looking Winter until we got close. Maybe it'll be opposite of current guidance. Now the latest CFS is about as good as it could be these ddays.im know that'll look different just 3-4 more runs but at least it'll look good posted: DJF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 8 Meteorologist Share Posted October 8 This is sort of how im feeling this winter, I could be horribly wrong and Im fine with that. I do however feel the temps will be a bit more warmer overall than the depiction shows and we still will have the overall SE ridge pop up from time to time but I do believe we will not be nearly as ridge prone as past years (time will tell of course). Im expecting this area very similar to forecasts being thrown out of 1-3F above average for the winter with the majority of the warmth from about Texas to the Carolinas, sort of a slightly skewed SE ridge look. Also not expecting nearly as deep of a trough as we have seen out onto the west coast around the Cali and Arizona region like we had from 2020-2023. Overall not great but not bad I think we manage at least average snowfall wise but the further into PA and NY you go the better the chances get for above average. 95 may struggle again this year but getting closer to average is a step in the right direction. Of course one single storm could skew the hell out of the season so snowfall overall will be tough to forecast for. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 8 Meteorologist Share Posted October 8 1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said: This is sort of how im feeling this winter, I could be horribly wrong and Im fine with that. I do however feel the temps will be a bit more warmer overall than the depiction shows and we still will have the overall SE ridge pop up from time to time but I do believe we will not be nearly as ridge prone as past years (time will tell of course). Im expecting this area very similar to forecasts being thrown out of 1-3F above average for the winter with the majority of the warmth from about Texas to the Carolinas, sort of a slightly skewed SE ridge look. Also not expecting nearly as deep of a trough as we have seen out onto the west coast around the Cali and Arizona region like we had from 2020-2023. Overall not great but not bad I think we manage at least average snowfall wise but the further into PA and NY you go the better the chances get for above average. 95 may struggle again this year but getting closer to average is a step in the right direction. Of course one single storm could skew the hell out of the season so snowfall overall will be tough to forecast for. I will add the PDO still being extremely negative is still a solid wild card but the overall atmospheric pattern does not look quite the same as the previous winters we have had with such a negative PDO. I do hope we can at least move this to more of a milder negative PDO state as move into winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Nice to see advancement on snow cover is forecasted! Hope it verifies & then some! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Seemed like there were many more of these in the past even at this early stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 I always find this guys look at weather being very interesting. Here is his outlook for this winter. He goes into other factors but uses gas futures as a big part of his forecast Stormchaserchuck1 I have, over the years, developed a few tools that work with pretty high accuracy regarding the following Winter. First, where is the money and what is the "middle" of what people -- insurance companies, energy companies, etc., are predicting. Natural Gas Futures Last year, the Natural Gas price in the Fall was extremely low, especially compared to Crude Oil/Gasoline, and this was a better predictor than seasonal models, which generally had a trough on the East Coast, US, from an expected El Nino pattern. Current Natural Gas price is $2.64. For October, here is where we rank: 1. 1998: $2.27 2. 2015: $2.3 3. 2019: $2.63 4. 2024: $2.64 5. 2023: $2.91 6. 1999: $2.95 26: 2006: $7.53 27: 2007: $8.33 28: 2004: $8.72 29: 2005: $12.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 I'm sure this will happen... 🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 On 10/5/2024 at 3:58 PM, JDClapper said: I'm still waiting to wear a hoodie on a regular basis. Sheesh. Maybe this week. 🤷♂️ Havent even whipped out the sweats yet. 😭 next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 11 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11 @StLweatherjunkie You probably have some crazy northern lights tonight can see a little down into the baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 11 Admin Share Posted October 11 17 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: @StLweatherjunkie You probably have some crazy northern lights tonight can see a little down into the baltimore area. Insane tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 11 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Insane tonight Kinda jealous there is just way too much light pollution but the camera helps a bit. Should be able to see it tonight and I believe early on tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 11 Admin Share Posted October 11 Just now, so_whats_happening said: Kinda jealous there is just way too much light pollution but the camera helps a bit. Should be able to see it tonight and I believe early on tomorrow. The outburst just after sunset was unreal, 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 11 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11 This was with the camera near bwi 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 11 Meteorologist Share Posted October 11 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: The outburst just after sunset was unreal, wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesfan82 Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Really nice display here in central PA. First time I ever saw them . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Here in Indiana 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 JMA update. I can only give individual months for NDJ & the 3 month DJF NOV DEC JAN DJF **Hunch is JMA is painting a picture of a front end loaded winter mostly from mid-NOV through DEC for east then it shifts west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 (edited) 13 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: @StLweatherjunkie You probably have some crazy northern lights tonight can see a little down into the baltimore area. Nope .... Clouds ... Regardless, anytime they're far enough south for the lower 48 to see they're usually too far south for me to see. I took these pictures in October 6th though, it was easy to watch it with my bare eyes. Edited October 11 by StLweatherjunkie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 View from my front yard last night. The Aurora went absolutely bonkers at around 10pm - camera lens wasn't needed! Bright colors were dancing right overhead. Incredible! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 P.S. - won't be long til we're tracking winter storms! Latest GFS... 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 UKMET...not terrible NDJ DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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