George Acton Posted Thursday at 06:59 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:59 PM On 10/12/2024 at 1:45 PM, JDClapper said: My winter forecast: Lots of clouds. Just got these bad boys installed Thursday (there's more on another part of the roof). Electrician gets it connected to the meter Tuesday. As surly as the track of a big storm shifts, the sun will be hard to find the majority of the time after that. 😄 JD, good luck on your move to solar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM Moderators Share Posted Thursday at 10:02 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted Thursday at 10:03 PM Meteorologist Share Posted Thursday at 10:03 PM 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Something caught my eye on the new CPC winter outlook that was released today. They now have the best chances of above average precip anomalies centered in the Lakes. Typically with a Nina, that area will be more centered on the Ohio Valley. I'd take my chances with this all day long, but I'm not necessarily buying that the warmth won't win out more than what this would imply. There definitely will be time periods where the overall warm pattern relaxes and those will be the chances for many to see snow potential and possibly severe cold but to figure out when this will happen will be anyones guess. Like I mentioned I do hold hope that we manage to get a somewhat normal season but with that ever present -PDO essentially doubling down it gives me pause. As we have seen so far this year we have been rather constant torch through most of the seasons until we abruptly seemed to have shut that off mid to late summer across much of the east and midwest. We seem to be having quite the see-saw pattern going on right now where we get extended periods of cool and extended periods (coming up) of warmth. As Mainejay has pointed out though during these times it has been rather dry. If it was not for Debby and Helene many areas around the Mid Atlantic and SE would be in one heck of a drought. Here is the drought monitor from just before Debby hit and also encompasses Helene. You can see how much the middle of the country has dried out but the lessening of drought around the mid atlantic and SE. OH and WV are hurting right now. Now it will be interesting to see if this type of drought pattern across the middle of the country induces a a further SE troughing pattern one where systems do in fact ride along the boundary but we have yet to see such a pattern set up yet. My fingers are crossed we can at least see an average winter but I do not like we just had that -PDO report. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted Thursday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:14 PM 9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: There definitely will be time periods where the overall warm pattern relaxes and those will be the chances for many to see snow potential and possibly severe cold but to figure out when this will happen will be anyones guess. Like I mentioned I do hold hope that we manage to get a somewhat normal season but with that ever present -PDO essentially doubling down it gives me pause. As we have seen so far this year we have been rather constant torch through most of the seasons until we abruptly seemed to have shut that off mid to late summer across much of the east and midwest. We seem to be having quite the see-saw pattern going on right now where we get extended periods of cool and extended periods (coming up) of warmth. As Mainejay has pointed out though during these times it has been rather dry. If it was not for Debby and Helene many areas around the Mid Atlantic and SE would be in one heck of a drought. Here is the drought monitor from just before Debby hit and also encompasses Helene. You can see how much the middle of the country has dried out but the lessening of drought around the mid atlantic and SE. OH and WV are hurting right now. Now it will be interesting to see if this type of drought pattern across the middle of the country induces a a further SE troughing pattern one where systems do in fact ride along the boundary but we have yet to see such a pattern set up yet. My fingers are crossed we can at least see an average winter but I do not like we just had that -PDO report. Yeah of course your right why should we expect anything to change when the main culprit just keeps doubling down (-pdo) But at the same time - it's right there in the name. OSCILLATION. At some point it has to oscillate right back the other way. Right? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Thursday at 10:24 PM Moderators Share Posted Thursday at 10:24 PM 8 minutes ago, 1816 said: Yeah of course your right why should we expect anything to change when the main culprit just keeps doubling down (-pdo) But at the same time - it's right there in the name. OSCILLATION. At some point it has to oscillate right back the other way. Right? Right? I don't see a real pattern to the oscillation. It was negative from 1948 to 1957. 9 years. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted Thursday at 10:25 PM Meteorologist Share Posted Thursday at 10:25 PM 3 minutes ago, 1816 said: Yeah of course your right why should we expect anything to change when the main culprit just keeps doubling down (-pdo) But at the same time - it's right there in the name. OSCILLATION. At some point it has to oscillate right back the other way. Right? Right? I hope but this will seemingly take several years to accomplish. The last deep -PDO period we saw was in the early 50's now again this does not mean the overall atmospheric pattern can not have disruptions and this is where that random occurrence can come in play. Though if the surrounding oceanic pattern wants to stay similar it does mean that it will eventually revert back to the unfavorable pattern. Just like the AMO should oscillate in fact we are doubling down on that too. Im sure there some type of connection between the states but to know when such changes occur to flip will be anyones guess in the long run. Until we start to see those changes the pattern does seem to be a bit stuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted Thursday at 10:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:31 PM 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I don't see a real pattern to the oscillation. It was negative from 1948 to 1957. 9 years. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ I'm just a layman but 9 years is almost a decade and it's a decadal oscillation. So in my mind that tracks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted Thursday at 10:31 PM Meteorologist Share Posted Thursday at 10:31 PM 3 minutes ago, StretchCT said: I don't see a real pattern to the oscillation. It was negative from 1948 to 1957. 9 years. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ It is still seemingly a rather sinusoidal teleconnection, don't let the intra timeframes deter that. There will be varying degrees for how deep that antinode is in the respective side but overall it is still there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Grace Posted Friday at 04:59 AM Popular Post Share Posted Friday at 04:59 AM Whelp...start a thread for the Nov 18-20 plains/OV winter storm. CFS is on it! 🤣 2 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted Friday at 10:19 AM Admin Share Posted Friday at 10:19 AM 5 hours ago, Grace said: Whelp...start a thread for the Nov 18-20 plains/OV winter storm. CFS is on it! 🤣 The CFS nailed the clear skies for the April eclipse up here, lock it in! 🤣 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted Saturday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Saturday at 03:35 AM (edited) On 10/17/2024 at 2:31 PM, so_whats_happening said: It is still seemingly a rather sinusoidal teleconnection, don't let the intra timeframes deter that. There will be varying degrees for how deep that antinode is in the respective side but overall it is still there. Monthly PDO and ONI values are highly correlated. In other words, ENSO forces PDO such that they are not distinct modes of climate variability. The reason it's so negative right now is persistent La Nina conditions. For whatever reason, last winters El Nino didn't really behave like it was supposed to. MEI values reached +1.1 compared to +2.0 on the ONI, implying a limited atmospheric response ... Probably associated with the PDO staying very negative. Edited Saturday at 03:35 AM by StLweatherjunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted Sunday at 02:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:30 PM Man I know it’s the LR GFS but there’s just a stream of warmth into early November centred in NA. I expect early to mid November to be warm so it’s not a huge surprise but you have to wonder if the constant stream of endless warmer than normal anomalies is what winter might look like too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM Meteorologist Share Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM On 10/18/2024 at 11:35 PM, StLweatherjunkie said: Monthly PDO and ONI values are highly correlated. In other words, ENSO forces PDO such that they are not distinct modes of climate variability. The reason it's so negative right now is persistent La Nina conditions. For whatever reason, last winters El Nino didn't really behave like it was supposed to. MEI values reached +1.1 compared to +2.0 on the ONI, implying a limited atmospheric response ... Probably associated with the PDO staying very negative. ENSO should force a PDO change-up even within the long held pattern (whether negative or positive) but it seems something happened around the 2015/16 Nino where now regardless of the ENSO state the PDO has held serve. 2019/20 was the only year that had remotely close to ONI/PDO similarities. We should have been able to push a near neutral PDO state with the strong Nino but alas it just didn't happen. I would wonder in the future if we do go into a more +PDO timeframe would a La Nina actually be able to force a more -PDO or would it fail similarly to what we just experienced with a +ENSO/-PDO? There has been much talk that the warming of the oceans globally have created sort of a block if you will of ENSO actually being able to force the PDO pattern. Of course this has only been a short period of time but it will be interesting to watch going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Meteorologist Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM This ENSO we might not even hit a trimonthly of -.5 it is so weak (im honestly all for the neutral status). The MEI might not even get to -1 (currently at -.7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted Sunday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:36 PM 3 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said: Man I know it’s the LR GFS but there’s just a stream of warmth into early November centred in NA. I expect early to mid November to be warm so it’s not a huge surprise but you have to wonder if the constant stream of endless warmer than normal anomalies is what winter might look like too. I fear it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:38 PM 3 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said: Man I know it’s the LR GFS but there’s just a stream of warmth into early November centred in NA. I expect early to mid November to be warm so it’s not a huge surprise but you have to wonder if the constant stream of endless warmer than normal anomalies is what winter might look like too. Has to flip at some point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted Monday at 02:02 AM Admin Share Posted Monday at 02:02 AM 11 hours ago, SNOWBOB11 said: Man I know it’s the LR GFS but there’s just a stream of warmth into early November centred in NA. I expect early to mid November to be warm so it’s not a huge surprise but you have to wonder if the constant stream of endless warmer than normal anomalies is what winter might look like too. It’s also been playing the Boy Who Cried Wolf a lot. “Guys!!! It’s gonna be hot for like a week straight.” …”Oh wait, I mean we’ll have slightly warmer than normal temps, then a cold dip, then back to warmer..” ..”Uh, maybe I’ll just say it’s sunny and call it a day.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Monday at 01:19 PM Moderators Share Posted Monday at 01:19 PM Super dry here in the NYC area since end of August. NYC and PHL have had no measurable rain in October and there's a pretty good chance it stays dry the next week. Looking at other years with Octobers under an inch of rain in either city, 2013,2001,2000,2023 and 1994 are the years since 1990 (really since the 60s). Following winters looked like this temp wise. 2000 and 2013 were colder than normal in the Upper mid west. 1994 was neutral+ enso in the Fall moving toward weak Nino. 2000 was weak nina in fall maintaining weak nina for the winter. 2001 was neutral- 2013 was neutral- 2023 was Nino. Should note that 2001 was the only year both PHL and NYC were under 1" of precip in OCT.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted Monday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:37 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted Monday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:21 PM This could be the first October in a while without measurable snow here in Indy if I'm not mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago the above average (in general) pattern has been on going for at least 18 months, I have little reason to believe until convincing reasons arise we abruptly end that streak in the next 2-3 months. Right now I just don't see why it would 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago On 10/20/2024 at 9:01 AM, so_whats_happening said: ENSO should force a PDO change-up even within the long held pattern (whether negative or positive) but it seems something happened around the 2015/16 Nino where now regardless of the ENSO state the PDO has held serve. 2019/20 was the only year that had remotely close to ONI/PDO similarities. We should have been able to push a near neutral PDO state with the strong Nino but alas it just didn't happen. I would wonder in the future if we do go into a more +PDO timeframe would a La Nina actually be able to force a more -PDO or would it fail similarly to what we just experienced with a +ENSO/-PDO? There has been much talk that the warming of the oceans globally have created sort of a block if you will of ENSO actually being able to force the PDO pattern. Of course this has only been a short period of time but it will be interesting to watch going forward. Last year's El Nino was weird, but I don't think there's any reason to believe that's a sign that the established ENSO/PDO relationship is no longer valid. Ultimately the triple dip Nina was more rare than ONI reaching the arbitrary 2.0C "strong" category. As a result, I don't find it surprising that the established -PDO pattern was unable to be broken by a single El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 7 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: the above average (in general) pattern has been on going for at least 18 months, I have little reason to believe until convincing reasons arise we abruptly end that streak in the next 2-3 months. Right now I just don't see why it would With the PDO so negative I can’t see how we don’t stay warm either. Unless there’s a sudden change to the PDO which seems unlikely I think these warm intrusions will continue for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Ryan Hall yall gives a little winter talk about 3/4 way through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago CFS still insisting a mid-NOV cold spell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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