Winter 2024-2025 | Discussion and Outlooks

[George Acton]

On 10/12/2024 at 1:45 PM, JDClapper said:

My winter forecast:   Lots of clouds.  Just got these bad boys installed Thursday (there's more on another part of the roof).  Electrician gets it connected to the meter Tuesday.  As surly as the track of a big storm shifts, the sun will be hard to find the majority of the time after that.  😄

JD, good luck on your move to solar.

[StretchCT]

 

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Something caught my eye on the new CPC winter outlook that was released today.  They now have the best chances of above average precip anomalies centered in the Lakes.  Typically with a Nina, that area will be more centered on the Ohio Valley.

I'd take my chances with this all day long, but I'm not necessarily buying that the warmth won't win out more than what this would imply.

 

 

There definitely will be time periods where the overall warm pattern relaxes and those will be the chances for many to see snow potential and possibly severe cold but to figure out when this will happen will be anyones guess. Like I mentioned I do hold hope that we manage to get a somewhat normal season but with that ever present -PDO essentially doubling down it gives me pause. As we have seen so far this year we have been rather constant torch through most of the seasons until we abruptly seemed to have shut that off mid to late summer across much of the east and midwest. We seem to be having quite the see-saw pattern going on right now where we get extended periods of cool and extended periods (coming up) of warmth.

As Mainejay has pointed out though during these times it has been rather dry. If it was not for Debby and Helene many areas around the Mid Atlantic and SE would be in one heck of a drought. Here is the drought monitor from just before Debby hit and also encompasses Helene. You can see how much the middle of the country has dried out but the lessening of drought around the mid atlantic and SE. OH and WV are hurting right now.

Now it will be interesting to see if this type of drought pattern across the middle of the country induces a a further SE troughing pattern one where systems do in fact ride along the boundary but we have  yet to see such a pattern set up yet. My fingers are crossed we can at least see an average winter but I do not like we just had that -PDO report.

[1816]

9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

There definitely will be time periods where the overall warm pattern relaxes and those will be the chances for many to see snow potential and possibly severe cold but to figure out when this will happen will be anyones guess. Like I mentioned I do hold hope that we manage to get a somewhat normal season but with that ever present -PDO essentially doubling down it gives me pause. As we have seen so far this year we have been rather constant torch through most of the seasons until we abruptly seemed to have shut that off mid to late summer across much of the east and midwest. We seem to be having quite the see-saw pattern going on right now where we get extended periods of cool and extended periods (coming up) of warmth.

As Mainejay has pointed out though during these times it has been rather dry. If it was not for Debby and Helene many areas around the Mid Atlantic and SE would be in one heck of a drought. Here is the drought monitor from just before Debby hit and also encompasses Helene. You can see how much the middle of the country has dried out but the lessening of drought around the mid atlantic and SE. OH and WV are hurting right now.

Now it will be interesting to see if this type of drought pattern across the middle of the country induces a a further SE troughing pattern one where systems do in fact ride along the boundary but we have  yet to see such a pattern set up yet. My fingers are crossed we can at least see an average winter but I do not like we just had that -PDO report.

Yeah of course your right why should we expect anything to change when the main culprit just keeps doubling down (-pdo)  

 

But at the same time - it's right there in the name. OSCILLATION. At some point it has to oscillate right back the other way. Right?

 

Right?

[StretchCT]

8 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Yeah of course your right why should we expect anything to change when the main culprit just keeps doubling down (-pdo)  

 

But at the same time - it's right there in the name. OSCILLATION. At some point it has to oscillate right back the other way. Right?

 

Right?

I don't see a real pattern to the oscillation. It was negative from 1948 to 1957.  9 years. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Yeah of course your right why should we expect anything to change when the main culprit just keeps doubling down (-pdo)  

 

But at the same time - it's right there in the name. OSCILLATION. At some point it has to oscillate right back the other way. Right?

 

Right?

I hope but this will seemingly take several years to accomplish. The last deep -PDO period we saw was in the early 50's now again this does not mean the overall atmospheric pattern can not have disruptions and this is where that random occurrence can come in play. Though if the surrounding oceanic pattern wants to stay similar it does mean that it will eventually revert back to the unfavorable pattern. 

Just like the AMO should oscillate in fact we are doubling down on that too. Im sure there some type of connection between the states but to know when such changes occur to flip will be anyones guess in the long run. Until we start to see those changes the pattern does seem to be a bit stuck.

[1816]

5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I don't see a real pattern to the oscillation. It was negative from 1948 to 1957.  9 years. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

I'm just a layman but 9 years is almost a decade and it's a decadal oscillation. So in my mind that tracks. 

[so_whats_happening]

3 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

I don't see a real pattern to the oscillation. It was negative from 1948 to 1957.  9 years. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

It is still seemingly a rather sinusoidal teleconnection, don't let the intra timeframes deter that. There will be varying degrees for how deep that antinode is in the respective side but overall it is still there.

[Grace]

Whelp...start a thread for the Nov 18-20 plains/OV winter storm. CFS is on it! 🤣