Grace Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 CFS fantasy DEC 🥶 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 1 hour ago, Grace said: CFS fantasy DEC 🥶 I’ll take it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted October 12 Admin Share Posted October 12 I read HERE that the Climate Prediction Center had downgraded the potential for La Niña conditions this year to 60%. The folks 'in the know' seem to feel that it may not even materialize at all, or that if it does that it would be extremely weak.. which would possibly lead to an ENSO-neutral winter. Which, in Amy-speak, means that nobody knows exactly what's going to happen, and that we could see a blow torch, or we could see the next ice age, lol. I'll take those chances, considering the poop stain that the past few winters have left. 😄 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 10 hours ago, Grace said: CFS fantasy DEC 🥶 Wow, and gives me that streak of heavy moisture, too! Lock it in!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 On 10/10/2024 at 5:27 PM, TLChip said: next week? I actually did this past week. Still haven't turned on heat despite the kiddo complaining it's cold in the house (61 ain't cold, enough with the drama!) But I def believe I'll be firing up the annual burnt hair smell this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 My winter forecast: Lots of clouds. Just got these bad boys installed Thursday (there's more on another part of the roof). Electrician gets it connected to the meter Tuesday. As surly as the track of a big storm shifts, the sun will be hard to find the majority of the time after that. 😄 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 5 hours ago, BuckeyeGal said: I read HERE that the Climate Prediction Center had downgraded the potential for La Niña conditions this year to 60%. The folks 'in the know' seem to feel that it may not even materialize at all, or that if it does that it would be extremely weak.. which would possibly lead to an ENSO-neutral winter. Which, in Amy-speak, means that nobody knows exactly what's going to happen, and that we could see a blow torch, or we could see the next ice age, lol. I'll take those chances, considering the poop stain that the past few winters have left. 😄 Just give me the 2013-14 version please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 3 hours ago, JDClapper said: I actually did this past week. Still haven't turned on heat despite the kiddo complaining it's cold in the house (61 ain't cold, enough with the drama!) But I def believe I'll be firing up the annual burnt hair smell this week. The neighbors and I play a game who go can the longest before they turn the heat on, it's typically November 🥶 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 On 10/11/2024 at 7:39 AM, Grace said: JMA update. I can only give individual months for NDJ & the 3 month DJF NOV DEC JAN DJF **Hunch is JMA is painting a picture of a front end loaded winter mostly from mid-NOV through DEC for east then it shifts west. Did not want buried at the end of last page. Same for UKMET....which I'll bump as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 On 10/11/2024 at 7:39 PM, Grace said: UKMET...not terrible NDJ DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 14 Share Posted October 14 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 From Bastardi An Updated Look At Winter A warmer than normal East and South is expected for the Winter Season overall. There are indications that it could be colder in the central and eastern U.S., and we have stepped down the forecast a bit. A cold Canada will set the stage for impactful cold air outbreaks. Rapid cooling of oceans may throw a monkey wrench into things. The active late Hurricane season means to look for a cold outbreak from late November into December. The pattern over North America should be in line with recent high-impact hurricane seasons and cold PDO analogs. The Verdict Overall, we are expecting another winter season with warmer than normal temperatures in the East. With all of the potential for cold air in Canada, there is a threat of major intrusions for a few weeks at a time. Most of the very warm winters have cold intrusions, but the winter comes down to warmth outdoing cold and that is the message here for the East and South. The opposite is likely for the West and North. Snowier than average conditions are expected over the Plains and Northwest, along with much of Western Canada. Snow is going to be a real roll of the dice for areas farther to the East with less than average snow events (as far as an overall number), but one or two big storms can make up for it in amounts similar to 2021-22. Those one or two major events have been completely missing over the past two winters. With the active late hurricane season having a very strong correlation to early cold outbreaks, likely because the same MJO that can enhance hurricanes now 40-60 days later is favorable for cold, a quick start is on the table. Remember, there is no correlation for sustained cold later, and, in fact, it's usually the opposite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Outbreak Posted October 15 Author Share Posted October 15 1 hour ago, Pghsnow said: a quick start is on the table That would certainly be something different! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 (edited) Accuweather winter forecast https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-forecast-for-the-us-in-the-2024-25-season/1699821 Edited October 15 by Pghsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 15 Moderators Share Posted October 15 (edited) A little late to the game this year, but I'm looking for years where the ONI transition in JJA (the latest we have) 0.1 to -0.1 (it's 0.1 this year). I'm also looking for weak Nina's as it's only a 60% chance of Nina. Only going back to 1990. No perfect match as the current state of +0.1 to -0.1 results in years where Nina was -0.9. Interestingly 1995-1996 shows up. Year DJF JJA (0.1) 2019-2020 -0.5 0.3# 2012-2013 -0.4 0.2 2013-2014 -0.4 -0.4* 2017-2018 -0.9 0.1 2005-2006 -0.9 -0.1 1995-1996 -0.9 -0.2* *much colder than normal in UMW/NEMA # much warmer than normal in UMW/NEMA Why 2014 and 1996 are outliers? Edited October 15 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Our first fantasy snow of the year .. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherJim Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 31 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Our first fantasy snow of the year .. Though if my memory serves me correctly it seems like the last few times we had cold or snow in October in Chicago December was balmy. I'm hoping for a snowy winter this year. It has been awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Odds really do favor at least a normal winter. It's been too long since we have had a decent winter. Hopefully this year changes things and we can put together a couple of good winters 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 There seems to be a general thinking that there is a chance at a normal or cooler December with snow chances. It’s been a while since we had a front loaded winter. If we do end up with +1°-3° warmer than average anomalies in January it will be better. At least where I am warmer than average January can still mean snow while a warm December usually doesn’t bode well for winter precipitation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 15 hours ago, Pghsnow said: Our first fantasy snow of the year .. We had snow flurries on beggars night last year, too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 16 hours ago, WeatherJim said: Though if my memory serves me correctly it seems like the last few times we had cold or snow in October in Chicago December was balmy. I'm hoping for a snowy winter this year. It has been awhile. I've looked into it before and there's definitely a correlation between accumulating snow in October in Chicago and having a lackluster winter. No real correlation with just having some flurries/snow showers in October though. 13 years have produced 0.5"+ snowfall in Chicago in October. Of those 13, only 3 went on to have a snowier than average winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 17 Meteorologist Share Posted October 17 (edited) On 10/8/2024 at 7:27 PM, so_whats_happening said: This is sort of how im feeling this winter, I could be horribly wrong and Im fine with that. I do however feel the temps will be a bit more warmer overall than the depiction shows and we still will have the overall SE ridge pop up from time to time but I do believe we will not be nearly as ridge prone as past years (time will tell of course). Im expecting this area very similar to forecasts being thrown out of 1-3F above average for the winter with the majority of the warmth from about Texas to the Carolinas, sort of a slightly skewed SE ridge look. Also not expecting nearly as deep of a trough as we have seen out onto the west coast around the Cali and Arizona region like we had from 2020-2023. Overall not great but not bad I think we manage at least average snowfall wise but the further into PA and NY you go the better the chances get for above average. 95 may struggle again this year but getting closer to average is a step in the right direction. Of course one single storm could skew the hell out of the season so snowfall overall will be tough to forecast for. Boy oh boy so a good piece of news is that products that were disrupted from Helene at NCEI are starting to slowly update. Today the September number for PDO finally updated, not only is it the lowest value recorded in September in the last ~170 years of data but it is I believe the second lowest number ever recorded within the data set for any single month (ill have to double check on that and comb through the data). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat I really really do want to hold out hope that things mitigate with this incredible -PDO pattern we have seen but I'm starting to lose a bit of hope. The persistence of this pattern is honestly impressive not even the RRR was as extensively long as this deep PDO state over the last 5 years. There is one thing to have a -PDO pattern and there is another to have one be so anomalously negative that it starts to really battle records. I do still overall think the look above is what will happen this year but was hoping that there would be a bit more back and forth (more so in the extreme department of back and forth) this year with a weakening -PDO state, I'm not so sure that will happen anytime soon now. Even a strong Nino event couldn't shake things up. The only thing that probably will need changing is the overall temp anomalies I had mentioned +1 to +3 over much of the east with higher levels from about the Carolinas to TX but we may have to bump them up a bin. Unless we start to see some signs of change this really ain't looking good for winter outside of interior and even those locations may struggle to get to average levels. Again hope I am horribly wrong and we have the most amazing snowfall year since 09-10 but it is looking highly unlikely we get to near average through much of the area. Edited October 17 by so_whats_happening 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 17 Admin Share Posted October 17 It's the extended bone dry periods we've seen for many places that makes me wonder about the snowfall aspect this winter. Next 10 days east of the Mississippi is impressive. Last winter we were able to manage a fairly "average" snowfall season, but the amount of "blue snow" was impressive. It was extremely destructive, and very hard to move. I'm certainly no going to bemoan a warm, dry second half of October however, just gonna enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted Thursday at 05:23 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:23 PM Something caught my eye on the new CPC winter outlook that was released today. They now have the best chances of above average precip anomalies centered in the Lakes. Typically with a Nina, that area will be more centered on the Ohio Valley. I'd take my chances with this all day long, but I'm not necessarily buying that the warmth won't win out more than what this would imply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted Thursday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:12 PM 48 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Something caught my eye on the new CPC winter outlook that was released today. They now have the best chances of above average precip anomalies centered in the Lakes. Typically with a Nina, that area will be more centered on the Ohio Valley. I'd take my chances with this all day long, but I'm not necessarily buying that the warmth won't win out more than what this would imply. Here is CPC discussion on their new maps Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 830 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions remain present, as equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. A La Niña Watch remains in effect, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (SON) 2024 (60% chance) and is forecast to persist through January-March (JFM) 2025. Any La Niña event that develops this autumn is favored, however, to be a weak short duration event. The November-January (NDJ) 2024-2025 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures for most of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from the Southwest eastward to include most of the central U.S. and all of the eastern CONUS. The largest probabilities (greater than 60 percent) of above normal temperatures are forecast for parts of the Southwest. There also is an enhanced likelihood of above-normal temperatures for northern Alaska. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for much of southern Alaska. The NDJ 2024-2025 precipitation outlook depicts enhanced probabilities of below-normal seasonal total precipitation amounts along most of the southern tier of the CONUS and for parts of southeast Mainland Alaska and Alaska Panhandle. The greatest odds of below-normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent) are forecast for parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains. Slight tilts toward above-normal precipitation is depicted for parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, central Great Lakes, and western and northern Alaska. Equal chances (EC) are forecast for areas where probabilities for each category of seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal total precipitation amounts are expected to be similar to climatological probabilities. BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS Note: For Graphical Displays of the Forecast Tools Discussed Below See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ENSO-neutral continued through early October 2024, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the equatorial Pacific Ocean as a whole. The equatorial central Pacific SSTs, however, have cooled recently and negative anomalies of greater than -0.5 degrees C for the equatorial region from 165 W to 125 W are evident. In fact, the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value is now -0.5 degrees C. Below-average subsurface ocean temperatures remain in place with cooler than normal conditions from approximately 160 W to 90 W to a depth of about 150 m. Low-level wind anomalies are easterly over the east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies are westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection has been near average over Indonesia and slightly suppressed over the Date Line. Then MJO has been active during September into October and aided a trade wind surge across the central Pacific in early September. The MJO is forecast to remain active for at least the rest of October and another trade wind surge supporting cooling of SSTs in the central Pacific is possible in late October. SSTs at higher latitudes remain warmer than normal for most areas of the mid-Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Enhanced upwelling along the U.S. West Coast has allowed negative SST anomalies to develop in parts of this region and below-normal ocean surface temperatures are evident in parts of the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. Drought conditions have rapidly expanded across much of the CONUS during late summer and early autumn especially for areas in the central U.S. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS Taken collectively, statistical and dynamical model forecast guidance of the Niño3.4 index favor the development of a weak and most likely short duration La Niña event. Some statistical model forecasts do favor a continuation of ENSO-neutral into and through winter 2024-2025. Dynamical model guidance predictions tend to support weak La Niña conditions to develop, including the majority of participant models from the NMME and C3S forecast suites. Most recent observations and the forecast guidance noted above favor La Niña to emerge during SON (60% chance) and is expected to persist through JFM 2025. PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS The development of potential La Niña conditions in the atmosphere-ocean system in the Pacific contributed to the outlooks from NDJ 2024-2025 through FMA 2025. Although typical La Niña impacts are less likely to occur during a weak event (currently favored), La Niña still tilts the odds in the outlook forecast probabilities. Coastal SSTs and constructed analogue forecasts keyed to current soil moisture anomalies are utilized in preparation of the outlooks at early leads. Dynamical model guidance from the NMME and C3S prediction suites (first 5 and 3 leads respectively), statistical forecast tools, long-term temperature and precipitation trends , and an objective, historical skill weighted combination of much of the above guidance strongly contributed to the final outlooks. PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - NDJ 2024 TO NDJ 2025 TEMPERATURE The NDJ 2024-2025 temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal mean temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) to include the Southwest, central Rockies, the central and Southern Plains, Southeast, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Highest odds for warmer than normal conditions is forecast for the Southwest and southern Plains. The temperature outlook for this season is primarily based on dynamical model guidance from the NMME and C3S prediction suites and long term positive temperature trends across much of the country. Expectations for the development of La Niña conditions contributed to the temperature outlooks and their evolution from DJF 2024-2025 through FMA 2025. Even though the La Niña event is favored to be a weak and shorter duration event at this time, typical winter season impacts influence the outlook during these seasons with below-normal temperatures most likely from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Plains beginning in DJF 2024-2025 through FMA 2025 and potentially lingering for parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies in MAM 2025. Enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures forecast in NDJ 2024-2025 gradually decrease in coverage and magnitude across the CONUS through FMA 2025 for areas of the western CONUS, Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. Some statistical model guidance including the ENSO-OCN forecast tool and composites taken over the 1991-2023 period for combined weak La Niña and ENSO-neutral winter seasons support this outlook evolution. Negative temperature trends for the north-central U.S. - especially centered near the month of February - played a considerable role in the outlooks. The official outlooks deviate significantly in some areas in the north-central CONUS from the majority of the NMME and C3S dynamical model guidance. Given weak ENSO forcing this winter, variability within the winter seasons is most likely to be above-average and greater than last winter. The variance from key subseasonal modes of variability from both the Tropics (e.g., MJO, etc.) and higher latitudes/stratosphere (i.e., AO/NAO, etc.) is likely to dominate the eventual seasonal mean temperature anomalies rather than more persistent periods during the winter. Positive temperature trends in the dynamical model guidance may be overemphasized in the model predictions in these regions resulting in warmer solutions overall for the winter seasons from DJF through FMA 2025 as the observed temperature trends are either neutral or negative in most areas. For Alaska, over these seasons, dynamical model guidance is in overwhelming agreement between models and consistent with typical La Niña related impacts. Below-normal temperatures are most likely for south-central and Southeast mainland Alaska as well as for the Alaska Panhandle through MAM 2025 with the maximum forecast coverage during JFM 2025. Above-normal temperatures are favored for northwest Alaska during this period with the greatest odds during NDJ 2024-2025 due to more open water (below-normal sea ice extent) and anticipated warmer than normal SSTs. Progressing through the spring and summer months of 2025, the outlooks primarily rely on the forecast consolidation of statistical model guidance and long-term temperature trends with high uncertainty in the future evolution of ENSO. Forecast coverage for above-normal temperatures is greatest during the late spring and summer seasons of MJJ and JJA 2025. PRECIPITATION The NDJ 2024-2025 precipitation outlook favors above-normal seasonal total precipitation amounts for portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Michigan, and northern and western Alaska. Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely for the southern tier of the U.S. with the highest odds forecast for the Southwest and Southern Plains. For Southeast Mainland Alaska and the northern Alaska Panhandle, a slight tilt toward drier than normal conditions is forecast through MAM 2025. As noted above, the favored development of La Niña conditions approaching the winter and consistent dynamical model forecast guidance is the basis for the outlook. Moving through the FMA 2025 season, the enhanced likelihood of above-normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions expands in coverage and probabilities increase maximizing in the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley area in JFM 2025. Positive precipitation trends also contribute strongly to these outlooks for some areas in the Midwest and Great Lakes. Favored below-normal precipitation across the south through FMA 2025 remains generally consistent with the forecast coverage and odds greatest for JFM 2025. The majority of the dynamical model guidance from the NMME and C3S model suites highlight substantially elevated odds for below-normal precipitation for the Far West (i.e., California/Nevada) for the winter seasons through FMA 2025. Given the anticipated generally weak ENSO forcing, this seems overdone, especially since some of the dynamical model guidance can sometimes overemphasize ENSO impacts during weaker events. Given the lack of a clear, reliable ENSO signal after this winter/early spring, longer lead outlooks are primarily based on long term precipitation trends and depict low forecast coverage. The longer lead precipitation outlooks during the warm season generally have low forecast skill. FORECASTER: Jon Gottschalck The Climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following the World Meterological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 complete decades as the climatic reference period. The probability anomalies for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. Notes - These climate outlooks are intended for use prior to the start of their valid period. Within any given valid period observations and short and medium range forecasts should be consulted. This set of outlooks will be superseded by the issuance of the new set next month on Nov 21 2024 1991-2020 base period means were implemented effective with the May 20, 2021 forecast release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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