Winter 2024-2025 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/farmers-almanac-weather-forecast-winter-b2595302.html

[Hoosier]

I'm leaning warmer than average at this point.  Yes I know we don't have a strong Nino and some other factors may be different than last winter, but it has become like pulling teeth to get a real colder than average winter.

If we can get more cooperation from the MJO, then maybe things will be different.

[StormfanaticInd]

LA Nina is all about the Southeast ridge. How strong will it be is the question 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Yuck

[StretchCT]

Saw this outlook today.  I could deal with near normal temps.

[so_whats_happening]

17 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Yuck

Would just like to point out this was the forecast last summer (August in fact) for this past January. Needless to say Im not a fan of long range forecasts this far out, but we shall see. January was actually one of the better months overall. 

I will say it is weird to see such an intense SE Ridge for what looks to be a rather weak ENSO state, even if RONI or MEI suggest we go to moderate status. If we can tame down the -PDO signal a bit as we get to fall it can only help.

[Grace]

Hot off the press

[Grace]

On 8/13/2024 at 4:40 PM, Hoosier said:

I'm leaning warmer than average at this point.  Yes I know we don't have a strong Nino and some other factors may be different than last winter, but it has become like pulling teeth to get a real colder than average winter.

If we can get more cooperation from the MJO, then maybe things will be different.

 

I hope we're wrong but I just expect warmer & if it ends up surprising cooler then great! I'm just a spectator of weather anymore. 

[Grace]

IRI Updated

[SNOWBOB11]

I think if the PDO is going to continue to be negative we are going to continue to see warmth. It’s currently very negative even more so than last year this time. Obviously there’s more factors but I think we are currently looking at another winter like last winter where warmth will dominate the east.

[StLweatherjunkie]

On 8/13/2024 at 1:40 PM, Hoosier said:

I'm leaning warmer than average at this point.  Yes I know we don't have a strong Nino and some other factors may be different than last winter, but it has become like pulling teeth to get a real colder than average winter.

If we can get more cooperation from the MJO, then maybe things will be different.

In many lower 48 communities, a colder than average winter is no longer possible without above normal snowfall. Mother nature is increasingly feast or famine when it comes to snow so most winters end up blah. Whenever a good winter comes around though, watch out. 

[Hassaywx1223]

We also now have to play with ash from another valcano possibly  https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/17/world/earthquake-kamchatsky-tsunami-warning-russia-intl-latam?cid=ios_app

[BuckeyeGal]

Maybe if we all say it's going to be warmer, it'll be colder. 🙃

[Squepp]

On 8/20/2024 at 5:32 PM, BuckeyeGal said:

Maybe if we all say it's going to be warmer, it'll be colder. 🙃

You're on to something... Every year for the last 10 years or so it seems that locally I have seen a wetter/colder winter long range forecast, it ends up being drier/warmer😀

[Grace]

SPV begins at the end of 12z GFS

 

[Pghsnow]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-forecast-first-model-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Edited August 27 by Pghsnow

[StretchCT]

Pretty much the same as the last 3 or 4 years for me. This may not be so bad for those in the midwest. Fairly normal temps with above precip?  

[StretchCT]

Three month maps

[Arctic Outbreak]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Pretty much the same as the last 3 or 4 years for me. This may not be so bad for those in the midwest. Fairly normal temps with above precip?  

I'd take this in a heartbeat! My standards have been lowered significantly after the last two abominations. 

[Grace]

Old Farmers Almanac

 

[1816]

3 hours ago, Grace said:

Old Farmers Almanac

 

Oh good. Mild and snowy. 

 

I don't even know how that would work. It's Virginia. If it's warm enough to be considered mild, it's not gonna snow.  This isn't Maine lol. 

[Hoosier]

On 8/30/2024 at 9:06 AM, Grace said:

Old Farmers Almanac

 

Well that sucks for me, but the good news is that I can head out to Ottumwa, Iowa, where it will be milder and snowier than here.  

[StormfanaticInd]

Odds favor a decent winter. We are way overdue 

[Pghsnow]

https://snowbrains.com/winter-2024-25-snow-forecast-la-ninas-impact-on-north-america-models-agree-on-the-snowiest-states/

Winter 2024-25 Snow Forecast: La Niña’s Impact on North America–Models Agree on the 3 Snowiest States

As North America braces for the winter of 2024-25, meteorologists looking at the snow forecast are turning their attention to the Pacific Ocean, where a weak La Niña is taking shape. For the winter of 2024/2025, above-average snowfall is expected in the northwestern United States and western Canada, while much of the southern and eastern United States, including the Northeast, are forecasted to experience below-average snowfall.

 

Model Predictions: ECMWF vs. UKMO

The ECMWF model suggests varied snowfall outcomes across North America:

• Western U.S. and Canada: The northwestern United States and western Canada are expected to see above-average snowfall, particularly in January. This aligns with typical La Niña patterns, where the Pacific Northwest often experiences increased precipitation.
• Midwest and Northeast: Surprisingly, the model forecasts below-average snowfall for much of the Midwest and northeastern United States. This is unexpected, as these regions typically receive more snow during La Niña winters.
• Southern U.S.: Consistent with La Niña trends, the southern states will likely experience below-average snowfall, with warmer and drier conditions prevailing.
• Canada: Most of Canada is projected to have above-average snowfall, except for parts of the south and southeast.

The UKMO model presents a slightly different picture:

• Northwestern U.S.: Like the ECMWF, this model predicts increased snowfall in the northwestern United States, reinforcing expectations of a snowy winter for states like Washington, Oregon, and Idaho.
• Upper Midwest and Great Lakes: The UKMO model forecasts above-average snowfall for the Upper Midwest and around the Great Lakes, aligning more closely with typical La Niña patterns.
• Northeastern U.S.: Both models surprisingly predict less snowfall than usual for the northeastern United States, which is atypical for a La Niña winter.
• Southern Canada: The UKMO model suggests below-average snowfall for southern parts of Canada, contrasting with the ECMWF’s prediction of increased snowfall across much of the country.
• Ohio River Basin: Uniquely, the UKMO model indicates potential above-average snowfall in the Ohio River Basin, a detail not highlighted in the ECMWF forecast.

Monthly Snowfall Patterns

The snow forecast patterns are expected to evolve throughout the winter season:

• November: Both models suggest increased snowfall in the western United States, likely at higher elevations. The UKMO model specifically points to potential above-average snowfall in the Ohio River Basin.
• December: The ECMWF model shows improvement in snowfall for the north-central United States and Upper Midwest. The UKMO model predicts increased snowfall around the Great Lakes and much of Canada.
• January: This month sees the strongest La Niña influence in both models. The ECMWF forecasts a significant area of above-normal snowfall in the west/northwest United States and Upper Midwest. The UKMO model reinforces this pattern and extends the area of increased snowfall further into the Midwest.

Conclusion and Considerations

While these forecasts provide valuable insights, they are based on data from mid-August and do not include predictions for February. As the La Niña event develops further, subsequent model runs may offer refined and potentially different forecasts.

The discrepancy between the models regarding snowfall in the northeastern United States is particularly intriguing. Typically, La Niña winters bring increased snowfall to this region, but both models currently predict below-average snowfall. This unexpected forecast warrants close monitoring as the winter season approaches.

[Grace]

Euro & CanSips both sucky updates