TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 BTV's updated map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Best looking forecast cast we've had this season. This morning it is cold without a cloud in the sky. Hard to believe a big storm is headed this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the area. Quote Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Burlington VT 401 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 NYZ028>031-034-035-VTZ001>009-016>018-222015- /O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0004.240323T0000Z-240324T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0006.240323T0000Z-240324T0600Z/ Eastern Clinton-Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin- Western Clinton-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Grand Isle- Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille- Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Eastern Franklin- Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison- Including the cities of Champlain, Plattsburgh, South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake, Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Swanton, Derby, Newport, Island Pond, Lunenburg, Burlington, Shelburne, Johnson, Stowe, Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Middlebury, Vergennes, Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, and Ripton 401 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 17 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern New York and northern Vermont. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Weight of the snow on tree limbs may cause scattered power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected during the day on Saturday. Snow character may become wet by Saturday afternoon, especially as one goes southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 (edited) BTV's forecast discussion. They do mention the chance of sleet and freezing rain for southern areas for part of the storm. Quote **Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect for all of northern Vermont and northern New York, except in the St. Lawrence Valley where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect **Storm total snowfall has increased, with expected amounts mainly in the 9" to 16" range. **Most significant impacts may be related to snow load on tree limbs as snow may be heavy and wet Potential biggest snowstorm of the "winter" season will begin tonight and continue through Saturday evening in much of the region. That being said, it remains a challenging forecast due to temperatures, snow ratios, and precipitation type, not to mention precipitation amounts. So some surprises and shifts in the forecast are to be expected. However, confidence in 7+ inches in the warned area is rather high. Note that on the western (less precipitation) and southern (greater mixed precipitation) edges, the forecast certainty is a bit lower. Currently on the weather map we have a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes which will gradually shift eastward into our region and weaken slightly. At the same time, a vigorous wave over the Midwest helping to produce thunderstorms in eastern Nebraska will eject eastward in a broad longwave trough, with a surface boundary intensifying due to increasing temperature differences on either side of the front. This front will shift towards our region by tonight with a swath of steady snow on its cold side. As high pressure settles in over southern Quebec, promoting a light north/northeast surface wind tonight, we will retain our cold air mass and should see all snow as increasing lift and moisture overcomes the initially very dry low level air. Snow will generally overspread the area from southwest to northeast between 8 PM and midnight in northern New York and 1 AM to 4 AM in Vermont. By 5 AM intensity of snow should be exceeding 1" per hour in much of the region, especially in a swath from the Adirondacks into central Vermont. Through 8 AM, 3 to 6 inches of moderately wet snow should be common across the area. Thereafter, while heavy snow continues over much of the region, a push of warmer air aloft will surge into southern Vermont. As a result, a shallow layer of above freezing air will likely make it into our region, with best chances in Rutland, Windsor, and Orange counties. As such, heavy snow will begin to mix with and change to sleet. A lot of model guidance suggests the warm layer deepens enough to change precipitation to freezing rain as well, but confidence in this happening is relatively low. Think that if warming does become so pronounced that surface temperatures would likely quickly rise above 32 as well. That being said, have kept a mix of sleet and freezing rain in portions of the aforementioned counties and even slightly farther north as these types of systems are difficult to pin down the extent of the warm nose. By Saturday evening we expect all snow again as low level flow turns northerly across the region with the focus turning to a coastal low pressure area. This is where the forecast gets more complicated, as additional, very heavy snow is possible in southeastern areas if this low tracks far enough west. If this does not materialize, the event could be winding down all together areawide by 8 PM. The current forecast snow amounts hedge between the two extremes. Edited March 22 by TheRex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 22 Moderators Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, TheRex said: BTV's forecast discussion. They do mention the chance of sleet and freezing rain for southern areas for part of the storm. Yeah...looking like it could get fairly ugly down this way....but more just straight up rain on this side of the Greens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 22 Moderators Share Posted March 22 Killington ftw? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 22 Moderators Share Posted March 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: Yeah...looking like it could get fairly ugly down this way....but more just straight up rain on this side of the Greens It looks like the 12Z NAM keep you all snow. Hopefully you don't see any rain or sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 SREFs have been slowing trending higher over the last few days for my area. Currently at 15", which was showing only 3" two days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 22 Moderators Share Posted March 22 3 minutes ago, TheRex said: It looks like the 12Z NAM keep you all snow. Hopefully you don't see any rain or sleet. ? 12z NAM has mixing all the way up towards Addison county line. Plain rain up to about Dorset.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 22 Moderators Share Posted March 22 RGEM was the only one cold enough aloft to keep me all white....but 12z bring some mixing to my doorstep, albeit just minor mixing...guessing that scenario would just have some sleet pellets mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 10 minutes ago, telejunkie said: ? 12z NAM has mixing all the way up towards Addison county line. Plain rain up to about Dorset.... My bad. I thought it was just mixing south of Rutland county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, telejunkie said: Killington ftw? I'm just glad I can see NJ nice and clear. No color clutter getting in the way. Sigh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Nice stripe of heavy snow for the mtns, saving ski season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 22 Moderators Share Posted March 22 (edited) 19 minutes ago, TLChip said: Nice stripe of heavy snow for the mtns, saving ski season? At least in this area....northern VT has been getting the goods in March. TheRex has a graph in the March thread showing just how much they've been getting up that way. Here is the top of Stowe for example....went from 40" to 87" in the last two weeks or so and easily could hit 100" by end of the weekend Edited March 22 by telejunkie 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossaNova Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Rain, rain, rain in these parts (check out RI). Best of luck to those in the forecast snow zone. Guessing it's going to be a lot of the heavy, wet variety? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted March 22 Moderators Share Posted March 22 Some pre-running flurries are starting to fly 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 22 Admin Share Posted March 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 NOAA Caribou just updated. Not liking the direction these totals are headed. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 22 Admin Share Posted March 22 49 minutes ago, Wayuphere said: NOAA Caribou just updated. Not liking the direction these totals are headed. It's 33° with a dew of 7°, so I'm thinking it shouldn't stick too bad initially, but kinda worried about 6" of sticky stuff. No leaves, but the little buds might add a little surface area as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted March 22 Admin Share Posted March 22 15 hours ago, Wayuphere said: NOAA Caribou just updated. Not liking the direction these totals are headed. The high end forecast is getting into the ridiculous zone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Updated forecast discussion from BTV. I highlighted where they discuss snow ratios and where they went with a colder solution which means less rain/freezing rain/sleet for the south. @telejunkie it seems BTV is saying you stay all snow. Quote .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 328 PM EDT Friday...... Key points... * Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for all of Vermont and northern New York, except in the St. Lawrence Valley where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. * Storm total snowfall amounts of 8-18" are expected. * The most significant impacts will be widespread hazardous travel and wet snow load on tree limbs, mainly across central/southern Vermont. Overall very minor changes made to the forecast for the next 36 hours as things remain on track for a significant early spring snow storm to impact the region. Our system of interest can easily be seen on this afternoons water vapor across the southeast with vigorous convection occurring in the Gulf of Mexico. Across the northern CONUS more zonal flow is observed aloft, but a trough is taking shape across the central/upper Midwest and shortwave energy further upstream over the Canadian Prairies is expected to deepen the trough enough as it moves into the Great Lakes and Northeast to phase with energy ejecting out of the southern stream system tonight. Surface cyclogenesis then occurs near the Delmarva region midday Saturday with a 1000mb low tracking inside the benchmark Saturday evening and northeast to Nova Scotia by sunrise Sunday morning. Snow is expected to spread across northern New York by midnight, and into Vermont thereafter, with 0.5-1"/hr snowfall rates developing overnight through early Saturday afternoon before tapering off across northern New York by sunset, and all of Vermont by midnight. Widespread snowfall amounts of 10-16" are expected from the Adirondacks through Vermont, with 5-9" in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. The one change to the forecast is the expected ptype across Rutland/Windsor counties where guidance has trended colder in regard to a warm nose moving in aloft, with now only a small section of southeast Windsor county forecast to see a changeover to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain from about noon through 6PM before going back to all snow. This led to slightly higher snowfall amounts, and less ice accretion as the probability for freezing rain is much lower now. Despite the cooler temperatures across southern Vermont though, a heavy wet snow is still expected from Addison/Orange counties south as mean surface to 850mb temps will be nearly isothermal on Saturday supporting snow ratios of 4-8:1. This has the potential to produce scattered to numerous power outages in this region due to heavy snow laden tree limbs hanging on or bringing down power lines. To the north, ratios should remain in the 10-12:1 range supporting a much lighter snow, though not champagne powder, and isolated power outages can`t be ruled out. Hazardous travel is a certainty with visibility <1/2 mile expected through much of the event, along with snow covered roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 It seems the 18Z GFS is broadening its area of +2' of snow in Maine and increased it a bit in central VT. @Mainiac someone may see totals in the ridiculous zone. Quote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: It's 33° with a dew of 7°, so I'm thinking it shouldn't stick too bad initially, but kinda worried about 6" of sticky stuff. No leaves, but the little buds might add a little surface area as well. We usually park the 3 vehicles out of the way on the lawn to make room for a complete plowing, to include the lawn. I just walked across the 3” leftover from yesterdays snow and it is way too soft to both drive on or plow…and I was foolishly thinking I could plant cold hardy veggies like peas and spinach this week…😁 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 22 Admin Share Posted March 22 15 minutes ago, Wayuphere said: We usually park the 3 vehicles out of the way on the lawn to make room for a complete plowing, to include the lawn. I just walked across the 3” leftover from yesterdays snow and it is way too soft to both drive on or plow…and I was foolishly thinking I could plant cold hardy veggies like peas and spinach this week…😁 I do the parking on the lawn routine as well. GYX 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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