March 9-11, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

[StretchCT]

Looks like a northern New England/upstate NY storm

 

[Lazman]

Cold air appears to be arriving late to the party for the eastern half of Pa. 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Looks like a northern New England/upstate NY storm

 

Stretch, check the track of the Wed-Thurs storm! Man with any cold air around, that would be a beauty. Up north where you are, any chance of some snow with that one, or is it north of you towards Maine? There is no thread for that one.

[StretchCT]

3 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Stretch, check the track of the Wed-Thurs storm! Man with any cold air around, that would be a beauty. Up north where you are, any chance of some snow with that one, or is it north of you towards Maine? There is no thread for that one.

For the 6th-7th?  Temps are in the mid 40s. Even VT/NH are above freezing.  Maybe Maine can pull it off again.  

I was looking at going skiing in either the Catskills or Mt Snow. I haven't gone yet this year and normally I'd really be jonesing to get a few days in.  My son's back from college Wed-Fri and I'm really glad we didn't book anything.  There will be fog, 2+" of rain and that's just not fun.  Friday may open up but still warm. Don't think it will be worth the effort. Then rain again on Sat.  

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

33 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

For the 6th-7th?  Temps are in the mid 40s. Even VT/NH are above freezing.  Maybe Maine can pull it off again.  

I was looking at going skiing in either the Catskills or Mt Snow. I haven't gone yet this year and normally I'd really be jonesing to get a few days in.  My son's back from college Wed-Fri and I'm really glad we didn't book anything.  There will be fog, 2+" of rain and that's just not fun.  Friday may open up but still warm. Don't think it will be worth the effort. Then rain again on Sat.  

Yes that one, so no go.  Stinks for you guys with the skiing. Hard to believe the Cats’ aren’t good early March , but geez it just flipped to warm everywhere, and now a couple rainstorms this week. Was reading that you have to go pretty far north for skiing, and find north facing mountains. 

[MaineJay]

12 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Yes that one, so no go.  Stinks for you guys with the skiing. Hard to believe the Cats’ aren’t good early March , but geez it just flipped to warm everywhere, and now a couple rainstorms this week. Was reading that you have to go pretty far north for skiing, and find north facing mountains. 

I know folks that went up to Sugarloaf and said it wasn't too bad.

The late week system looks juicy, just not sure how much is liquid and what's frozen.  0z NAM was quick to bring in the cold, but 6z backed way off. 

This threat is all about the triple point.

 

 

 

 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

I know folks that went up to Sugarloaf and said it wasn't too bad.

The late week system looks juicy, just not sure how much is liquid and what's frozen.  0z NAM was quick to bring in the cold, but 6z backed way off. 

This threat is all about the triple point.

 

 

 

 

Hope the slopes survive the 2 during the week rainers and this one  brings some white. May skiers luv this time of year, and man the resorts need March. Down here, despite some decent totals it has been another brutally short window for the resorts. Late start to year, January thaw, then after a decent cold stretch temps just been too up and down, and the snap to warmer pattern just ended the season far too early. Feel bad for them.

[thebigo]

13 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Hope the slopes survive the 2 during the week rainers and this one  brings some white. May skiers luv this time of year, and man the resorts need March. Down here, despite some decent totals it has been another brutally short window for the resorts. Late start to year, January thaw, then after a decent cold stretch temps just been too up and down, and the snap to warmer pattern just ended the season far too early. Feel bad for them.

The NH Alpine champs are scheduled for Fri - Sun this weekend. Kids that have made it this far are the type that train year round. Athletes at this level are used to skiing in rain but cannot compete at a high level on terrain that has not frozen in a week and there is no window to reschedule. Bunch of people trying to figure this out and to say I am hanging on every model run would be an understatement. 

[TLChip]

10 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Hope the slopes survive the 2 during the week rainers and this one  brings some white. May skiers luv this time of year, and man the resorts need March. Down here, despite some decent totals it has been another brutally short window for the resorts. Late start to year, January thaw, then after a decent cold stretch temps just been too up and down, and the snap to warmer pattern just ended the season far too early. Feel bad for them.

it’s rough, not sure I want to make the drive to the whites this year. They have snow but it’s been warm, mash potato hiking? Snowshoes are fun to bust out in fresh powder, but just to wear for postholing… ehhhh not really. 
 

Ice climbing had to be slim pickings this year, need those big freezes to lock it in. 

[telejunkie]

37 minutes ago, TLChip said:

it’s rough, not sure I want to make the drive to the whites this year. They have snow but it’s been warm, mash potato hiking? Snowshoes are fun to bust out in fresh powder, but just to wear for postholing… ehhhh not really. 
 

Ice climbing had to be slim pickings this year, need those big freezes to lock it in. 

There was some decent ice here by end of February…

Edited March 5 by telejunkie

[TLChip]

23 minutes ago, telejunkie said:

There was some decent ice here by end of February…

Is it hanging around? I’ve been up late March with success, just got to get a good weekend. 

Stole this, was posted yesterday, Bonds.

 

Another

 

a lot nicer to walk on ice/snow other than straight rocks, I got rocks imby haha. 

Edited March 5 by TLChip

[telejunkie]

23 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Is it hanging around? I’ve been up late March with success, just got to get a good weekend. 
 

I'd say odds aren't in your favor as CPC shows nothing but red ahead...but today it is snowing up higher elevations here. Stratton's summit cam showing white stuff falling: 

https://youtu.be/VPQaZffyviI

Edited March 5 by telejunkie

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

Must say really rare that the cold enough to snow switch has been turned off so early and didn’t flip back some. Really thought we would have rough patch starting around 10th or so. Long range forecasters did nice job calling it. I didn’t believe it. Our Marches have below average for the most part it seems last several years. Not this one, geez. Shut out, and many great low tracks. Total lack of help up north. 

[TheRex]

Last two runs of NAM showing snow in the area for this weekend.  We are going up to Montreal for the weekend and we have seemed to be a good luck charm for Montreal getting snow while we are there.

Quote

18Z NAM

12Z NAM

 

[telejunkie]

Just some minor timing and track discrepancies still to work out...HRRR with primary SLP almost to Lake Placid while NAM has it down near Trenton on a track towards Portland, ME. Oddly though, the realized differences between the model output isn't as wide as I would think....mainly just the southern and eastern extend of precip in that time stamp.

Edited March 8 by telejunkie

[MaineJay]

3 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Just some minor timing and track discrepancies still to work out...HRRR with primary SLP almost to Lake Placid while NAM has it down near Trenton on a track towards Portland, ME. Oddly though, the realized differences between the model output isn't as wide as I would think....mainly just the southern and eastern extend of precip in that time stamp.

NAM3' looks pretty cold, keeps me on the wintry side for the most part. Have my doubts.

 

[TheRex]

GFS 12Z run is pretty aggressive with snow up this way.

We are going to Montreal for the weekend and it looks like we may see some heavy snow.  For home it looks like we may get a lot of white rain.

Quote

Kuchera Snowfall

The Snowfall Depth Change map looks a bit different though.  What falls and sticks to the ground will be like concrete.

 

[TheRex]

BTV put out a snowfall map through Monday morning.  Elevation is going to be a big factor on who will be shoveling snow this weekend.

Quote

 

[StretchCT]

Euro, NAM, GEM/RGEM, Ukie takes the low through NNJ into CT then Mass

ICON just south of NYC

as was AIFS

GFS and RFFS is PA to Albany.  

[StretchCT]

Winds will be up with this one, as well as whatever is going on Monday night.

 

[TheRex]

BTV issued a Winter Storm Watch for part of their coverage area.

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
228 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024

NYZ029>031-034-VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>020-091000-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0003.240310T0000Z-240312T0000Z/
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Orleans-Essex-Lamoille-Caledonia-Washington-Orange-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-
Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-
Including the cities of South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake,
Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb, Derby,
Newport, Island Pond, Lunenburg, Johnson, Stowe, Hardwick,
St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Bradford, Randolph,
Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,
East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, and Ludlow
228 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to
12 inches, with localized higher amounts possible. Winds could
gust as high as 45 mph, especially the Western Slopes of the
Green Mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New York and central, northern,
and eastern Vermont, including the Northeast Kingdom.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Isolated to scattered power outages are possible,
especially Saturday night into Sunday. Travel could be very
difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of snow and rain develops late
Saturday afternoon and changes to mostly a heavy wet snow above
1000 feet on Saturday night into Sunday morning, before a brief
break on Sunday. Snow will redevelop late Sunday and become
heavy at times, especially the central and northern Green
Mountains, including the Western Slopes Sunday night into
Monday, before tapering off late Monday.

 

[TheRex]

18Z runs coming in snowier.   I'm hoping the trend is my friend.  Even GFS is onboard.

[MaineJay]

I'm not really keen on getting too much mashed potatoes, but seems like a good chance I see a little snow.

Quote

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY MORNING SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday will feature dry weather with clouds continuing to
increase. It will be cooler in most zones as southeasterly winds
will be prevalent.

Things change quickly Saturday night as a potent short wave
trough and developing SFC low tracks northeastward toward New
England. Upward vertical motion will strengthen as forcing for
ascent increases. Precipitation will begin to overspread the
forecast area from southwest to northeast during the evening
hours, eventually covering the entire area well before dawn.

The column will likely be cold enough to allow for a start as
snow in most zones. Thereafter, low level warm air advection
will quickly change any snow to rain across southern zones and
most of the coastal plain, with the rain becoming heavy at
times. It will be cold enough to support a heavy wet snow in the
mountains, with some power outages possible by dawn Saturday. We
have issued a winter storm watch for portions of the foothills
and the mountains for the potential for a significant amount of
heavy wet snow.

There is an area of uncertainty in portions of the foothills
southward to interior portions of the coastal plain as some
guidance members show a colder solution. It wouldn`t be
surprising to see some marginal areas go over to rain a little
later with the strong UVVs that are expected. This could snap
the temperature profile back to an isothermal look around the 0c
line in the vertical. Some areas may experience this and get
several inches of "mashed potatoes" before going over to rain.
Hard to say exactly where that may be at this time as models and
ensemble members are still waffling around a bit with respect to
low track.

Onshore winds will also increase markedly as the low rapidly
develops. By dawn, winds may be gusting 40+ MPH with inland
zones 30+ MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: Significant storm continues Sunday morning with rain,
snow, wind, coastal flooding, and land/river flooding. Broad
circulation will continue precipitation in the mountains Sunday
night and Monday with gusty northwest winds. Quieter weather is
expected mid week with high pressure moving in. This will also
contribute to a warming trend through the week.

Details: Surface low pressure will be tracking into central New
England Sunday morning. Positioning of the low has consolidated
further inland, which adds potential for high winds over the
waters and coast. In general, QPF has maintained amts, with some
increases for local effects such as upslope in the NW mtns, and
coastal front along the Midcoast.

The 8am to 2pm time period looks to include the greatest amount
of precipitation for eastern NH and central/southern ME.
Dynamics are strong, and rain/snow rates will be heavy. There
are additional details in the Hydrology section below, but
overland flash flooding will be possible here. Towards the
mountains and foothills, heavy snow will be falling with 1 inch
per hour rates or greater possible at times. Combined with the
low snow ratios, snow consistency will be wet. This will pose
risk to adding snow load on trees. There remains uncertainty on
where the rain/snow line retreats to during the day, which will
be key for snow amounts in the foothills and interior. NAM
continues to keep cold air dammed in the mountains, but other
guidance is quicker to overrun this cool air. Kept some of the
NAM temps blended in however, as CAD is typically best
represented here.

See Coastal Flooding section for details about this significant
hazard.

Winds are another aspect of the storm that has increased over
the past 24 hours. Current forecasts have winds not as potent as
prior storms in January, but still notable for a) interior
locations seeing accumulating wet snow and b) the immediate
coast. HREF range is just reaching the beginning of the storm,
so have went with NBM winds and local guidance for current
forecast. Would prefer to adjust towards HREF values once in
range, and this should make decision for how to handle new High
Wind Watch easier. System will be intensifying as it enters the
CWA, and would expect winds to increase the further north up
along the coast. Penetration of these strong winds inland is
limited, but could still wind up with Wind Adv criteria for the
ME capitol region, portions of the southern ME/NH coast, and
even downslope locations on NW slopes of the mountains.

Low pressure will be moving ENE overnight into Monday, and
circulation remains broad. Wrap around moisture will continue
precipitation across the mountains as flow becomes NW.
Additional light accumulations will be possible through the day
Monday. Monday will see NW winds gusting to around 40mph in the
afternoon, but thankfully, due to how broad and slow the
circulation is moving, there will be about 12 hours of lighter
winds prior as they shift NW Sunday night.

A period of quieter weather is then expected as high pressure
builds in toward the middle of next week. For Monday night...low
pressure will continue to deepen over the Canadian Maritimes,
maintaining breezy conditions through Tuesday. Based on forecast
soundings, wind gusts out of the northwest of 30 to 35 mph are
possible Monday night and Tuesday, maybe reaching 40 to 45 mph
from time to time. The northwest flow will promote upslope rain
and snow showers in the mountains into Tuesday night with dry
conditions elsewhere. Temps on Tuesday look to reach the 40s
across much of the area, except 30s toward the mountains.

Dry conditions persist into Wednesday with lighter winds as the high
settles overhead, but the high will start to shift east of the area
on Thursday as another system approaches. With the southerly flow,
temperatures could reach the 50s over much of the area on Thursday
before the previously mentioned system brings another chance of
precipitation either later on Thursday or Friday.

&&

 

[TheRex]

BTV's forecast discussion says forecast snow amounts could change due to a complex system.  It should be fun to watch it all play out.  The mountains should see wet heavy snow but then get fluffy snow on Monday.  Maybe this storm will save the spring skiing season.

Quote

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 347 PM EST Friday...A long duration winter storm watch has been
posted for the northern Adirondacks and the central/northern Green
Mountains in VT, including parts of the NEK from 00z Sun to 00z Tues
where confidence is the highest for at least a 50% or greater
probability of 7 or more inches of snowfall. This wl be a highly
elevational dependent system, given the marginal bl temps,
especially the first half, while 2nd part is lighter/fluffier snow
associated with upslope component.

Scattered power outages possible Sat night into Sunday for
parts of northern NY and central/northern VT. It should be
noted, this is a very dynamic and complex system, and snowfall
fcst with marginal temps is extremely challenging and wl change.
In addition, once again we are dealing with a large spread btwn
the 10th and 90th percentile snow amounts acrs our cwa, which
highlights the best/worse case scenarios.

Latest 12z trends have been for a much stronger southern stream
system ejecting from the MS River Valley into the Mid Atlantic
States, which is now being captured by approaching northern stream
mid/upper lvl trof acrs the Great Lakes. As trof phasing and strong
250mb jet interaction occurs, rapid cyclogenesis of sfc low pres
develops acrs the Mid Atlantic into southern/central New England on
Sat night into Sunday. The deepening system wl eventually become
vertically stacked acrs central/northern Maine by late Sunday into
Monday, advecting deep layer moisture back into our fa, supporting a
prolonged upslope snow event. Timing and location of the phasing,
along with placement of where the deepening of the closing 850 to
500mb cyclonic circulation occurs is very important to potential
impacts acrs our cwa.

Still anticipating a two part system, with first part arriving late
Sat aftn into early Sunday morning, while second part is a long
duration upslope event late Sunday into all day Monday. Initially
temps wl be very mild on Sat, with progged 925mb to 850mb temps in
the 1-3C range, but as strong dynamical forcing arrives and
evaporational cooling develops as precip develops, expect thermal
profiles to become deeply isothermal near 0C, with just the bl above
0C. Deep layer moisture wl be quickly advecting into our region
associated with a 100-120 knot sub-tropical jet, pushing pw values
in the 0.70 to 0.90 range by Sat night. Furthermore, the southeast
orientation of the 850mb jet of 40 to 55 knots wl enhance moisture
advection into our region, but at the same time produce favorable
lift to cool the lowest levels just enough along and east of the
Green Mtn Spine to support a mostly heavy wet snowfall. Similar type
similar for the se upslope areas of the eastern Dacks from Essex
County to Clinton County NY. Meanwhile, just the opposite occurs on
the downslope side, with a bit of warming in the bl and slightly
less qpf. So expect a mix of rain and snow along the western slopes
and northwest dacks on Sat night into Sunday. However, if dynamics
associated strong 925mb to 700mb fgen forcing cool the column enough
as advertised by some meso-scaling modeling a brief 1 to 3 hr window
of heavy snow is possible down to the valley floors on Sat night.
These banding features and potential impacts on thermal profiles
makes for an extremely challenging snowfall fcst. As just a degree
or two change or a minor shift in the sfc low pres track, wl play a
major influence on thermal profiles and qpf/snowfall. Forecasting
snowfall amounts in this type of scenario is very difficult and
expect the unexpected. Temps on Sat night hover either side of
freezing, with coolest above 1500 feet in eastern/central VT and
warmest CPV and western slopes. The threat for gusty winds have
decreased slightly given the slightly more southern track, but still
noticing a 40 to 55 knot 850mb jet and 35 to 40 knot jet at 925mb
lifting from south to north acrs our region btwn 06z and 15z Sunday.
However, the strongest winds seem to be colocated with the heaviest
precip, resulting in less deep layer mixing. Still anticipating
localized gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range for the western slopes on
Sat night/Sun morning and northern dacks. First part snowfall ranges
from a dusting to 2 inches SLV/CPV/Western Slopes and Lower CT River
Valley with 2 to 8 inches midslopes of the northern dacks and mtns
of central/northern VT, with 6 to 10 inches at summits.

Meanwhile, still anticipating an overall break in areal coverage of
precip on Sunday, along with associated dry slot, before upslope
snow event develops late Sunday into all day Monday. The exact
timing and duration of the precip break is uncertain and wl depend
upon the mid/upper lvl trof evolution/track. In addition, during the
brief dry slot and associated wind shifts to the south/southwest, bl
temps are anticipated to warm into the mid 30s to lower 40s,
especially parts of the CPV and central/eastern VT on Sunday. This
should greatly improve travel issues by midday Sunday.

As low pres conts to deepen and become vertically stacked winds
shift to a favorable northwest upslope direction, along with
moderate 925mb to 850mb caa. The closing cyclonic circulation should
help to enhance a backside deformation zn of deeper layer moisture
and lift, combined with enhanced low level forcing from upslope flow
against the northern Dacks and central/northern Greens. This is
where the Western Slopes and parts of the northern Dacks wl see the
best accumulating snowfall from late Sunday into Monday. Thermal
profiles show progged 850mb temps dropping to -10C to -14C with
favorable moisture in the snow growth region and good llvl
lift/omega. All parameters support a prolonged period of
accumulating upslope snow on Sunday night into Monday. As bl temps
begin to warm on Monday, expect most impacts to be confined above
1000 ft. Snowfall associated with upslope component looks to range
btwn 6 and 12 inches for the Western Slopes and northern Dacks and a
dusting to several inches possible for the eastern side of the CPV.
Much lighter/fluffier snow is anticipated on backside with ratios in
the mtns of 12/15 to 1, especially Sunday night into Monday.

I realize we have a long duration watch in effect and impacts wl
come in two waves, but given the complexity and potential for
additional changes thought the best action attm was to issue winter
storm watch where the confidence of at least 50% or greater of 7 or
more inches of snowfall was the highest. I anticipate snowfall
amounts wl continue to change as trends are established and system
becomes better sampled by high res data, so stay tuned.

 

[RTC3-LAST CHANCE]

C’mon you guys up north, get some snows!  And post pics. Man, the winds behind this storm are brutal- for 2 days!!