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March 9-11, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


MaineJay

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I'm a bit bummed out by the possibility of this storm, because we will be in Key West, FL

during that time. Not that being on vacation is something to complain about. LOL... 😎

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14 minutes ago, geeter1 said:

I'm a bit bummed out by the possibility of this storm, because we will be in Key West, FL

during that time. Not that being on vacation is something to complain about. LOL... 😎

Cowboy Bills!!

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47 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Cowboy Bills!!

Sadly they closed a couple of years ago. It was always a hoot watching people get on the bull, and getting thrown off...

Rum Runners is now there. Not nearly as good. They replaced the bull riding area with corn hole boards.... 😎

Edited by geeter1
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46 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

12z EPS is meh on this one, at least for snow accum in NCPA. 0z was a tad better.

 

Screenshot_20240302-153106_Chrome.jpg

Man.. I was out in the yard with the doggo today and saw some tulips coming up already!  I guess as soon as I disconnect the plow we'll get some snow 🙂

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My area averages almost 2 feet of snow for March, so it'd be more unusual to not get snow this month.

GEFS all have a storm, just different manifestations.  Pretty good agreement a week out though.

f174(7).thumb.gif.5dcd7a18e7c72d894604c706d5959ff0.gif

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Lwx keeping the mention of winter…

 

A much stronger trough - part left over from the system currently
affecting the West Coast, and another part from an upper-level low
currently over the Gulf of Alaska - is progged to push toward the
eastern half of the CONUS by the end of the week. Stronger low
pressure and moisture advection would be probable in this setup,
given the stronger overall jet pattern surrounding it. Some guidance
(like the 03/00Z GFS) has enough cold air bleeding into the region
in the wake of the mid week system(s) that wintry precipitation
comes into the picture, though with a lack of a signal for more
persistent deeper cold this scenario appears to be a bit less
likely, especially outside the higher elevations (typical of March).

 

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Screenshot2024-03-03155837.thumb.png.adf33ed525536957c51acb736a009138.pngScreenshot2024-03-03160108.png.f386d21491659104bc9a4b16ba669c84.png

coastal looks as good as you can get ATM 

lets see if the colder bleed in and down - syncs up as we go thru the week

keeping it real on such a fantab weather day outside my digs...... makes me bat shite cray -Z

dm

Edited by Doorman
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  • The title was changed to March 9-11, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation

Lwx 

 

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of low pressure will be exiting on Thursday as the
associated shortwave energy from the southern jet departs and begins
to phase with the northern stream off to our northeast. The bulk of
the rainfall from this system will have already fallen by 12z
Thursday, with less than a quarter inch of QPF near and east of the
DC metro during the morning.

After this system, brief ridging is expected Thursday into Friday
with subsidence behind the shortwave. Then the synoptic pattern
becomes more amplified as southern stream energy moves from the
southern Plains into the Great Lakes and interacts with a shortwave
diving south from east-central Canada Friday into Saturday. The
result is likely a large and potent surface low pressure system
moving through the Ohio Valley, but there is uncertainty regarding
the interaction of these two features, yielding significant spread
on low location and timing within guidance.

For our area, we can at least expect rain and possibly gusty winds.
Precipitation from this system is expected to reach our area Friday,
most likely Friday evening, and continue through Saturday. Rain
could continue into Saturday night, possibly with upslope snow along
the Alleghenies, but will depend on how much cold air the low
manages to bring. QPF varies given the uncertainty and generally has
0.5-0.75" for the area as of now, but will continue to monitor the
flood threat following the rain earlier in the week.

 

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7 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

https://share.newsbreak.com/6b3iawff

 

Just cuz. It was biblical.  Back fill, wrap around , pivot shit to the max. Still brings back memories. Nuttin’ better than seeing that radar fill back in east to west. Sobbing now, thinking about it. 
Except the huge warm up and rain storm after.  Susquehanna  went all ‘72 Agnes almost. 

I was in OCMD celebrating my 1st Anniversary, with my wife. She was about 3 months pregnant. Took us 12 hours to get back to Hazleton, as the further north we drove the deeper the Snow. Crazy fun times. Drove to Norristown - almost a foot. 23 was one of the roads open. Came across then up 72 to Lebanon. 81 was closed. Could have used a cellphone for information, but alas, I digress.

Shot back across 78 to 309, which had just opened up. I was a trailblazer. Followed a plow up and over Blue Mountain to Tamaqua, which probably had 2 1/2 feet. Finally got home before sunset and got stuck in the driveway as my wife fell out of the car. Our house was a year old and I had only a coal shovel. At least 4+ feet in drifts here in Harleigh. Road graders came through that evening. Took me over 4 hours to get things open. Fun times indeed. Thank God schools shut down for the week, as I was a shop electives teacher. 

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Der Bingle is speculating on this. AFD listed below. More about low pressure placement and timing than anything. Let's see what happens. 

Screenshot_20240304-082825.png

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