ElectricStorm Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 there we go it embedded this time. Hope everyone is okay here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 6 minutes ago, OHValleysnow said: I'm with you on that. I was hoping the heavy cloud cover today was going to limit these storms, but doesn't appear to be. Doesn’t appear it has limited anything which is very concerning. Looks like it’ll be a late night for me! Thankfully I’m off work til Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 6 minutes ago, OxfordOh_ said: Doesn’t appear it has limited anything which is very concerning. Looks like it’ll be a late night for me! Thankfully I’m off work til Monday I am fairly certain areas getting hit now had far less cloud cover than very eastern IN and OH today. I am not sure that matters but it definitely could have some implications. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 9 minutes ago, beaver56 said: I am fairly certain areas getting hit now had far less cloud cover than very eastern IN and OH today. I am not sure that matters but it definitely could have some implications. Far less. It was about a 3 hour window if that when the sun came out in my area in Sw Ohio. Unfortunately I’m not sure how much that will affect my area if any for storms with all the ingredients in place! We will certainly see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28 Meteorologist Share Posted February 28 That’s smoke btw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 STORM-NET 3 hour tor probs starting to pick up some slightly higher values in IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 28 Author Share Posted February 28 Incoming! Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Areas affected...southern Illinois and Indiana into portions of northern Kentucky and southwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 280146Z - 280345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe risk is expected to increase this evening and overnight upper-level ascent and a fast-moving cold front intersect with the retreating dryline. Bowing segments and supercells will be capable of all severe hazards as they spread east along the OH Valley. A new Tornado Watch will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, surface obs near STL showed the dryline retreating westward with a surge in dewpoints to the low 60s F. Evening water-vapor and IR imagery showed large-scale ascent beginning to impinge on the warm sector across portions of the mid MS and lower OH Valleys. Weak convection in the well-mixed warm sector to the west has steadily deepened, and should move into more robust surface moisture this evening. Additional convection also appears likely to develop along the cold front surging southeastward across eastern MO later tonight. Low 60s F surface dewpoints and ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support strong updrafts within the warm sector. Very favorable deep-layer shear (50-60 kt) will support a mix of supercells and short bowing segments. Damaging gusts and hail appear likely, given the strong vertical shear and favorable buoyancy. Rapidly increasing low-level shear (evident on area VADs) may support a risk for tornadoes, especially with more sustained supercells. A significant tornado also cannot be ruled out, given very large effective helicity of 400-600 m2/s2 and a 50-60 kt 850 mb jet. Confidence remains low on the exact timing of convective initiation, given that some convective inhibition remains. As ascent begins to deepen, most hi-res guidance, and extrapolation of weaker convection farther west, suggests new storms should develop in the next 1-2 hours and quickly become severe. With all severe hazards possible, a new Tornado Watch is likely needed in the next couple of hours for parts of southern IL/ IN into northern KY and southwestern OH. ..Lyons/Edwards.. 02/28/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 (edited) Looks like things going linear in Illinois for the most part. And stuff trying to pop up around my neck of the woods. Edited February 28 by NWOhioChaser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 North Chicago metro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 (edited) I've been seeing these little showers pop up for the last few hours but the cap was too strong, these are still just showers but they've survived longer than any other bubblers from the last couple of hours. UPDATE: all those bubblers died too lol Edited February 28 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudy_jake Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Things are popping in SE Indiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Storms rapidly developed in Lake/Porter counties in IN, but moving out over the lake now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 The line near Chicago has built southward. Gonna get hit by it in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Acton Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 From winter right to May. Just, wow!!😎⛈️🌪🌪⛈️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Random popcorn cells popping up but don’t seem to be gaining strength anytime soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Just constant thunder now. Like literally no break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Certainly feels muggy outside in central OH tonight. We'll see what happens later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Tornado warning here. Rotation is passing north though so I feel ok observing out the window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: Incoming! Still no watch and this discussion is only valid for 25 more minutes, very uncertain on what happens in the next few hours, the only thing i've noticed is a storm near Saint Louis that hasn't died yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Still no watch and this discussion is only valid for 25 more minutes, very uncertain on what happens in the next few hours, the only thing i've noticed is a storm near Saint Louis that hasn't died yet. Tornado watch just issued 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OxfordOh_ Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Fairly large watch area. Somewhat surprised by the tornado probabilities considering we really haven’t seen any storm action on the southern end yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 The wind is getting stronger here in St. Louis; the temperature at Lambert Field plunged 77-54 in the last hour. Rain has been anything but impressive; the last truly exciting rainstorm or thunderstorm here was last May 14 (but not April 15, as I had posted a few weeks ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Saw a picture of a funnel cloud that was almost on the ground near Gary, from that storm that went north of me. It definitely ended up touching down, so I think the question is whether it was still on land or already out over Lake Michigan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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